ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[USTropics]

I think they're referring to Air Force Met.

[ozonepete]

I think they're referring to Air Force Met.

I thought maybe that's what he meant, but that would be AFM.
I remember AFM very well. He was an incredibly smart guy who had a natural eye for these. I miss his wise commentary. I wonder where he went?

[wxman57]

Recon is having trouble finding an LLC. Peak SFMR winds are below 30kts. Danny is clearly no longer a tropical storm, and if no well-defined LLC is found (with organized convection around it) then it has weakened to a remnant low.

[Gustywind]

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2015

...DANNY WEAKENING WHILE IT APPROACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 59.0W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Well my prediction from yesterday actually turns out to be correct. Went from category 3 to tropical storm to nothing in 3 days.

[xironman]

I think they're referring to Air Force Met.

I thought maybe that's what he meant, but that would be AFM.
I remember AFM very well. He was an incredibly smart guy who had a natural eye for these. I miss his wise commentary. I wonder where he went?

My bad!

[USTropics]

I think they're referring to Air Force Met.

I thought maybe that's what he meant, but that would be AFM.
I remember AFM very well. He was an incredibly smart guy who had a natural eye for these. I miss his wise commentary. I wonder where he went?

Him and Deltadog have dissapeared At least we still have you and wxman57. Always insightful information/discussions to follow over the years.

[wxman57]

I think they're referring to Air Force Met.

I thought maybe that's what he meant, but that would be AFM.
I remember AFM very well. He was an incredibly smart guy who had a natural eye for these. I miss his wise commentary. I wonder where he went?

I occasionally have lunch with AFM. He's stationed at Ellington AFB. Was just conversing with him Friday. I think he's too busy to post here most of the time. He may stop by if there is ever a real hurricane threat in the basin again.

[ozonepete]

I think they're referring to Air Force Met.

I thought maybe that's what he meant, but that would be AFM.
I remember AFM very well. He was an incredibly smart guy who had a natural eye for these. I miss his wise commentary. I wonder where he went?

Him and Deltadog have dissapeared At least we still have you and wxman57. Always insightful information/discussions to follow over the years.

Thanks!! I love this place and you guys make it worth it.

[wxman57]

Plane is still trying to find an LLC. Danny appears to be a remnant low.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-0504A-DANNY.png

[ozonepete]

I occasionally have lunch with AFM. He's stationed at Ellington AFB. Was just conversing with him Friday. I think he's too busy to post here most of the time. He may stop by if there is ever a real hurricane threat in the basin again.

Oh really? That's great to hear. Tell him we miss him. And it may be a long wait before we have a real threat here again.

[xironman]

I think they're referring to Air Force Met.

I thought maybe that's what he meant, but that would be AFM.
I remember AFM very well. He was an incredibly smart guy who had a natural eye for these. I miss his wise commentary. I wonder where he went?

Him and Deltadog have dissapeared At least we still have you and wxman57. Always insightful information/discussions to follow over the years.

Delta is around, he has even commented on this thread.

[ozonepete]

Well my prediction from yesterday actually turns out to be correct. Went from category 3 to tropical storm to nothing in 3 days.

You know what goes right before a fall, right?

[NCSTORMMAN]

Danny is a perfect example of why I think the US will never have another major threaten it at least in my lifetime. Magical troughs and shear will always get the storms. It is almost like we have a shield around us. Danny was fun to watch while it lasted and it proved to me that this season is just another repeat of the last 10 years. Glad that is the case but like I have said before it is very very weird.

[WPBWeather]

Danny is a perfect example of why I think the US will never have another major threaten it at least in my lifetime. Magical troughs and shear will always get the storms. It is almost like we have a shield around us. Danny was fun to watch while it lasted and it proved to me that this season is just another repeat of the last 10 years. Glad that is the case but like I have said before it is very very weird.

Unless your lifetime is shorter than the next seven days, you probably will see one.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Danny is a perfect example of why I think the US will never have another major threaten it at least in my lifetime. Magical troughs and shear will always get the storms. It is almost like we have a shield around us. Danny was fun to watch while it lasted and it proved to me that this season is just another repeat of the last 10 years. Glad that is the case but like I have said before it is very very weird.

Unless your lifetime is shorter than the next seven days, you probably will see one.

In general in our lifetimes. We can come back to this conversation in 10 years okay? Should start convincing more people by then when it has been 20 years.

[USTropics]

Danny is a perfect example of why I think the US will never have another major threaten it at least in my lifetime. Magical troughs and shear will always get the storms. It is almost like we have a shield around us. Danny was fun to watch while it lasted and it proved to me that this season is just another repeat of the last 10 years. Glad that is the case but like I have said before it is very very weird.

Being a programmer you should know those probabilities are null. We've been very fortunate over the past 10 years, and while it's been a historical drought of U.S. impacts, it's only a matter of when not if. My opinion is after this strong El Nino ends, conditions will reset in the Atlantic. I just hope complacency doesn't set it.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Danny is a perfect example of why I think the US will never have another major threaten it at least in my lifetime. Magical troughs and shear will always get the storms. It is almost like we have a shield around us. Danny was fun to watch while it lasted and it proved to me that this season is just another repeat of the last 10 years. Glad that is the case but like I have said before it is very very weird.

Being a programmer you should know those probabilities are null. We've been very fortunate over the past 10 years, and while it's been a historical drought of U.S. impacts, it's only a matter of when not if. My opinion is after this strong El Nino ends, conditions will reset in the Atlantic. I just hope complacency doesn't set it.

Being a programmer does not stop me from thinking this will be the case as I mentioned before I will go against the probabilities here. 20 years from now when it has been 20 years since Katrina and no major landfalls have occurred I think people will be lining up with me.

[WeatherGuesser]

No Cat 6 dropping sharks on Cincinnati?

[wxman57]

Bones is stepping up to the microphone...