EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Well on its way to Cat3. It's been dealing with shear throughout its livelihood.

Actually annular transition may be on its way. Banding is going away from the SE.

[Yellow Evan]

Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm


Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAY 2015 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 14:39:52 N Lon : 116:08:54 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 965.5mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -46.1C Cloud Region Temp : -68.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.7 degrees

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

Well on its way to Cat3. It's been dealing with shear throughout its livelihood.

Actually annular transition may be on its way. Banding is going from the SE.

Shear may be relaxing per SHIPS.

Yea, I agree. It's getting that annular look.

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

(images from WU)



Andres vs.



Daniel 12

Look familiar? I know King enjoyed the hec out of Daniel.

[Yellow Evan]

[Kingarabian]

(images from WU)

Look familiar? I know King enjoyed the hec out of Daniel.

Daniel 2012 was something else man. It had the worst conditions, and the NHC repeatedly called for it to quickly weaken; it still intensified.

We'll see how Andres does as it turns west.

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF shows Andres strengthening some over the next several days and weakening to commence starting day 5.

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAY 2015 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 14:41:51 N Lon : 116:10:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 963.6mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -49.3C Cloud Region Temp : -68.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.7 degrees

****************************************************

[Kingarabian]

The ECMWF show Andres strengthening some over the next several days and weakening to commence starting day 5.

That's interesting because the NHC left the GFS forecasts for Andres to strengthen as an outlier. They're going with the consensus of weakening as forecast by other models.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
200 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015

Andres' cloud pattern has not changed much during the last several
hours. The eye of the hurricane remains evident in visible and
infrared satellite images, but it has been occasionally obscured by
high-level clouds. Recent microwave data show that the western side
of the eyewall has eroded slightly, which is likely the result of
northwesterly shear and drier air that is wrapping into that side of
the circulation. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and the
UW-CIMSS ADT are all 5.0/90 kt, and accordingly, the initial wind
speed is held at that value.

Andres continues on a northwestward track at about 6 kt toward a
weakness in the subtropical ridge. The models are in agreement
that the hurricane should turn west-northwestward tonight or early
Sunday when the ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. The 12Z
GFS solution has changed considerably from the previous cycle, and
now shows Andres stalling and then moving eastward in the 96-120
hour time frame in response to a mid- to upper-level trough. That
model is considered an outlier as it is likely keeping Andres too
deep over cool waters. The official track forecast is a little to
the north and slightly slower than the previous one after 72 hours.

The hurricane is forecast to maintain its strength for about a day
while it remains over warm water and in an environment of
decreasing shear. Steady weakening is anticipated beyond that
time, however, when Andres moves over progressively cooler water
and into a much more stable air mass. The official intensity
forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is in good
agreement with the intensity model consensus.

The 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii were expanded on the east side of
the circulation based on a 1650 UTC ASCAT-B pass. The 12-ft sea
radii were also expanded based on a recent altimeter pass that
showed sea heights as high as 28 ft.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 14.8N 116.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 15.4N 117.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 15.9N 118.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 16.3N 119.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 16.9N 121.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 18.5N 124.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 19.5N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 19.5N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Kingarabian]

I still see it becoming a Cat.3 at least, especially since shear is decreasing and it will continue to be over warm waters.



Once that ring of red completely circles around the eye, then the eye should warm and clear out.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

The ECMWF show Andres strengthening some over the next several days and weakening to commence starting day 5.

That's interesting because the NHC left the GFS forecasts for Andres to strengthen as an outlier. They're going with the consensus of weakening as forecast by other models.

Really only the statistical guidencecshows steady weakening.

GFS takes it to an extreme though.

[Yellow Evan]

We should see a 5.5 shortly if it can hold together.

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAY 2015 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 14:51:00 N Lon : 116:21:06 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 959.7mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -50.2C Cloud Region Temp : -68.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.7 degrees

****************************************************

[Kingarabian]

Seems to be a pinhole eye?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Visible satellite imagery may show a well-organized hurricane approaching Cat 3 status, but infrared imagery tells an entirely different story. The overall cloud pattern is very ragged for a storm of its intensity as dry air continues to filter in from the northwest. Andres has remained steady if not weakened slightly since this morning.

[Yellow Evan]

Visible satellite imagery may show a well-organized hurricane approaching Cat 3 status, but infrared imagery tells an entirely different story. The overall cloud pattern is very ragged for a storm of its intensity as dry air continues to filter in from the northwest. Andres has remained steady if not weakened slightly since this morning.

Clouds tops have warmed, but the eye has cleared out. It's presentation is declining, no question, and it's ugly. But beacuse the Blacj warps around .5 the eye now, and with no eye adjustment, this arguably warrants a T5.5.

[Kingarabian]

Visible satellite imagery may show a well-organized hurricane approaching Cat 3 status, but infrared imagery tells an entirely different story. The overall cloud pattern is very ragged for a storm of its intensity as dry air continues to filter in from the northwest. Andres has remained steady if not weakened slightly since this morning.

I don't think it has weakened, but I do agree that it's still coughing out dry air.

Infrared imagery isn't pretty, but AVN shows red, really cold cloud tops trying to circle the eye.

Guess we should wait until we get a decent microwave pass.