WPAC: CHAN-HOM - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

Considerable uncertainty in the track. Somewhere between just north of Taiwan and southern Japan next Friday. 12Z GFS is south of the 6z. Has the center passing not far north of Taiwan.

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN11 PGTW 041812

A. TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM)

B. 04/1732Z

C. 13.90N

D. 145.72E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .65 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET
AGREES WHILE PT YIELDS A 3.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
04/1556Z 13.82N 146.08E ATMS


MARTINEZ

I don't think so.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro is about 50 miles south of Okinawa on Friday morning. GFS is a bit south of that. I expect more changes in future runs. Still too far out to be confident.

[euro6208]

000
WGMY50 PGUM 041836
FFWMY
GUC010-100-042330-
/O.NEW.PGUM.FF.W.0004.150704T1836Z-150704T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
422 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN GUAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE ISLANDS OF ROTA...GUAM...

* UNTIL 930 AM CHST

* AT 422 AM CHST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS GUAM
AND TORRENTIAL RAIN MOVING TOWARD ROTA. 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN UPON BOTH ISLANDS. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
IS ALREADY OCCURRING.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH
ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS. FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED IN LOW-
LYING AREAS AND NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF LIVING NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT
QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN
IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING. STAY AWAY FROM
RIVER BANKS AND CULVERTS AS THEY CAN BECOME UNSTABLE AND UNSAFE.

TURN AROUND...DO NOT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. ONLY 2 FEET OF RUNNING WATER WILL BE
ENOUGH TO CARRY A VEHICLE AWAY.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 1343 14463 1352 14481 1412 14511 1420 14527
1419 14528 1411 14521 1413 14516 1377 14494
1361 14490 1359 14495 1353 14494 1342 14478
1328 14476 1323 14467

$$

CHAN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 041900
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
500 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING TOWARD ROTA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 145.7E

ABOUT 40 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.7 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
MOVED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS... BUT THE MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE IT BEGINS MOVING MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
BEGINS MOVING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM
LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING
NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 34 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SLIGHTLY
DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AS WELL AS PGUA RADAR
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 09W IS NOW
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOT) VWS AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS ENHANCED BY THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST.
TS 09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 09W WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTH. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS CHAN-HOM TRACKS ACROSS
THE MARIANA ISLANDS. AFTERWARD, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO IMPROVE, ALLOWING TS 09W TO FURTHER INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 09W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STEERING STR. VWS
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD; HOWEVER, COOLER SST AND LOWER OHC VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
DIVERGENCE BEYOND TAU 96, BUT OVERALL REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

LLC just southeast of Rota or east of Northern Guam...

Getting gusty winds and heavy showers.

Andersen reporting 995mb and winds of 20 mph gusting to 28 mph...

Further north, Saipan is getting stronger winds gusting to 40 mph!

Rota still in the calm...

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 JUL 2015 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 13:56:17 N Lon : 145:29:51 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 986.7mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.8 3.8

Center Temp : -78.0C Cloud Region Temp : -77.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 80km
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.3 degrees

[euro6208]

CHAN-HOM REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM THIS MORNING. AGAIN THE TRACK
IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE EARLIER TRACK FORECAST NEAR TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. LAST NIGHTS TRACK PREDICTION SHOWED THE TROPICAL STORM
PASSING CLOSER TO ROTA. A LOOP OF RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE
TROPICAL STORM EAST OF GUAM TURNING NORTHWEST. A FEW FRAMES
TOWARDS THE END HINT THAT IT MAY BE HEADING TOWARDS THE ROTA
CHANNEL. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS IT PASSING JUST NORTH OF ROTA SO
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ANOTHER UPDATE IS POSSIBLE.

CHAN-HOM MAY BECOME A TYPHOON AT SOME TIME BUT NOT WHEN IT IS IN
THE MARIANAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AT SOME TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN WAS OBSERVED AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW AREAS SEEING
ABOVE FOUR INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE SUNRISE. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA FOR THIS MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE MARIANAS ISLANDS. WHILE THERE
MAYBE SOME TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT THE BIGGER
WORRY IS PROBABLY WITH MORE HEAVY RAIN FALLING THROUGH TONIGHT.

[euro6208]

Rain and winds getting stronger as a band of very deep convection heads spiral's to Northern Guam...

[euro6208]

Easily gusting to near 40 mph in the northern islands...

995mb in Rota...

[wxman57]

The center appears to be passing just north of Guam now. Westerly winds of 24 kts there now. Pressure 996.7mb. Center near 14.2N/145.2E.

[TheAustinMan]

Typically composite reflectivity radar images aren't the best indicators of what's happening at the surface, but since it incorporates higher-angle radar scans it allows us to see over the mountains and into the heart of Chan-hom, which is otherwise located "behind" the mountains (and thus invisible) on base reflectivity.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 050009
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1009 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM PASSING OVER ROTA...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND
THEIR COASTAL WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND ROTA
COASTAL WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN
AND SAIPAN.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ANY ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 9 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.1N...LONGITUDE 145.1E. THIS IS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST TIP OF ROTA...50 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM...70 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND 80 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN.
CHAN-HOM WAS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 45 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
CHAN-HOM IS PASSING NORTHWEST ACROSS ROTA...AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS MOTION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY INDOORS IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED
TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.

RESIDENTS OF GUAM SHOULD STILL PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES AND MAINTAIN READINESS AS LONG AS A
TYPHOON WATCH IS IN EFFECT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

GUZ001-PMZ151-050815-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-
1009 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. BE ALERT FOR FLOODING IN YOUR
AREA. MAINTAIN READINESS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS. LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL SHIFT TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY.

SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
EXPECT HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 12 FEET ON EAST FACING REEFS...
8 TO 10 FEET ON SOUTH AND WEST FACING REEFS AND 6 TO 9 FEET ON
NORTH FACING REEFS THROUGH MONDAY.

...FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING ARE IN EFFECT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP 6 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

$$

GUZ002-PMZ152-050815-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
1009 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. BE ALERT FOR FLOODING IN YOUR
AREA. MAINTAIN READINESS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECASTS...STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 35 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 25 TO 35 MPH TONIGHT.

SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WILL BUILD AS CHAN-HOM NEARS AND COULD
REACH UP TO 15 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CHAN-HOM
PASSES.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
EXPECT HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 12 FEET ON EAST FACING REEFS...
8 TO 10 FEET ON SOUTH AND WEST FACING REEFS AND 6 TO 9 FEET ON
NORTH FACING REEFS THROUGH MONDAY. SURF MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO
DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 12 TO 15 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SURF WILL SUBSIDE BY MONDAY EVENING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED AS CHAN-HOM
PASSES.

...FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING ARE IN EFFECT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP 6 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

$$

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-050815-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
1009 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS. LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECASTS...STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 25 TO 35 MPH TONIGHT.

SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WILL BUILD AS CHAN-HOM NEARS AND COULD
REACH UP TO 15 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CHAN-HOM
PASSES.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
EXPECT HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 12 FEET ON EAST FACING REEFS...
8 TO 10 FEET ON SOUTH AND WEST FACING REEFS AND 6 TO 9 FEET ON
NORTH FACING REEFS THROUGH MONDAY. SURF MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO
DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 12 TO 15 FEET THIS EVENING. SURF WILL SUBSIDE
BY MONDAY EVENING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS CHAN-HOM PASSES.

...FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. RAINFALL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

[euro6208]

Quite a sight here on the 30th floor. I can barely see anything...

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING
NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 6 NM
WEST OF ROTA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OBSCURING THE LLCC. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, PGUA RADAR, AS WELL AS TIGHT GROUPING
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 09W IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF LOW VWS AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS
ENHANCED BY THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. TS 09W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 09W WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTH. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS CHAN-HOM TRACKS ACROSS
THE MARIANAS ISLANDS. AFTERWARD, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO IMPROVE, ALLOWING TS 09W TO FURTHER INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 09W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STEERING STR. VWS AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD; HOWEVER, COOLER SST AND LOWER OHC VALUES WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF KADENA. THEREFORE, JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS
SHIFTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS TO REFLECT THIS
CHANGE. DUE TO THE TIGHT GROUPING AMONG AVAILABLE TRACKERS, THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS HIGH, WHICH IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[Hurricaneman]

Shanghai needs to keep a very close eye on this one as this could be a major typhoon for that area

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

Lowest pressure recorded on Guam was 990mb and winds of 37 gusting to 62 mph. I was at work all day and didn't experience much action but driving home, i saw plenty of flooding...

[euro6208]

Deluge...

NWS just mentioned that a rainfall record was set for this day, July 5, at the Guam International Airport. 11.77 inches has been measured

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING
NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 33 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING MORE TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.
A 050402Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ DEPICTS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC WITH BROADER, FRAGMENTED BANDING
ELSEWHERE. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) WHILE LOOPING SINCE ABOUT 05/00Z,
HOWEVER, THE LATEST IMAGERY NOW INDICATES A NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION
AWAY FROM GUAM WITH A POSITION NEAR 14.45N 145.26E AT 050726Z.
CONSEQUENTLY, SURFACE WINDS AT ANDERSEN AFB HAVE DECREASED FROM A
PEAK OF 40 KNOTS SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 54 KNOTS AT 050427Z TO
APPROXIMATELY 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS. BASED
ON THE RADAR IMAGERY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AND RECENT QS MOTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HEDGED
HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) BASED ON
STRUCTURE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TS 09W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. TS 09W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS CHAN-
HOM TRACKS ACROSS THE MARIANAS ISLANDS. AFTERWARD, UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE, ALLOWING TS 09W TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 09W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STEERING STR. VWS AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD; HOWEVER, COOLER SST AND LOWER OHC VALUES WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF KADENA. THEREFORE, JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS
SHIFTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS TO REFLECT THIS
CHANGE. DUE TO THE TIGHT GROUPING AMONG AVAILABLE TRACKERS, THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS HIGH, WHICH IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN