WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

-81C cloud tops now fully surrounds a warming eye...

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 031214

A. SUPER TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR)

B. 03/1132Z

C. 17.44N

D. 141.89E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[talkon]

Updated BT
13W SOUDELOR 150803 1200 17.5N 141.8E WPAC 135 922

[euro6208]

Another incredible images out from devastated Saipan.

Soudelor made landfall according to JTWC as a category 2 typhoon, 90 knots but look at that.

This supports my theory that it was stronger at landfall maybe a category 4 or 5 as you don't see cars like that flipped over. It had a very small pinhole eye and eyewall thus winds would be way stronger in only a small area...

[euro6208]

Updated BT
13W SOUDELOR 150803 1200 17.5N 141.8E WPAC 135 922

It's a clear 7.0 140 knots but JTWC likes to keep it 5-10 knots lower than it actually is for some reason...

[euro6208]

2015AUG03 113200 7.2 913.3 146.0 7.2 7.5 7.5

RAW up to 7.5!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Another incredible images out from devastated Saipan.

Soudelor made landfall according to JTWC as a category 2 typhoon, 90 knots but look at that.

This supports my theory that it was stronger at landfall maybe a category 4 or 5 as you don't see cars like that flipped over. It had a very small pinhole eye and eyewall thus winds would be way stronger in only a small area...

You want to see cat 4 damage? Check Tacloban images. Not close to that, perhaps mid-end cat 3

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TY 1513 (SOUDELOR)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 3 August 2015

<Analyses at 03/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N17°25'(17.4°)
E141°55'(141.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°55'(17.9°)
E139°40'(139.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N18°20'(18.3°)
E137°40'(137.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N19°30'(19.5°)
E134°00'(134.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 06/12 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N20°55'(20.9°)
E129°40'(129.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)

[cycloneye]

[euro6208]

Another incredible images out from devastated Saipan.

Soudelor made landfall according to JTWC as a category 2 typhoon, 90 knots but look at that.

This supports my theory that it was stronger at landfall maybe a category 4 or 5 as you don't see cars like that flipped over. It had a very small pinhole eye and eyewall thus winds would be way stronger in only a small area...

You want to see cat 4 damage? Check Tacloban images. Not close to that, perhaps mid-end cat 3

Saipan is more prepared than Tacloban. Many of the infrastructure is concrete unlike Tacloban with many houses built from wood also Haiyan is much larger so the damage is widespread.

Soudelor is super small so Cat 4 or higher damage is confined to a very small area...

[euro6208]

Ramping up big time...

2015AUG03 123200 7.5 904.0 155.0 7.5 7.6 7.6

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Another incredible images out from devastated Saipan.

Soudelor made landfall according to JTWC as a category 2 typhoon, 90 knots but look at that.

This supports my theory that it was stronger at landfall maybe a category 4 or 5 as you don't see cars like that flipped over. It had a very small pinhole eye and eyewall thus winds would be way stronger in only a small area...

You want to see cat 4 damage? Check Tacloban images. Not close to that, perhaps mid-end cat 3

Saipan is more prepared than Tacloban. Many of the infrastructure is concrete unlike Tacloban with many houses built from wood also Haiyan is much larger so the damage is widespread.

Soudelor is super small so Cat 4 or higher damage is confined to a very small area...

But that does not justify that it's a cat 4.

We have a house in Tacloban away from the shore and it's not made of wood

Aside from that, it's now very likely a cat 5, or maybe nearing the high end. Defying model forecasts maybe I'd not be surprised to see 880 mb or lower

[euro6208]

Starting to develop an intense rainband to the west of the circulation commonly seen in very powerful typhoons including Haiyan.

Eye currently at +8.1 last update but if it warms to above +10C, 155 to 165 knots peak is possible...

[euro6208]

Goodness...Look at the size of this monster!

[Yellow Evan]

First reaction holy crap. Looks like a T7.5.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Just like Vongfong further southeast, and moving in a different path

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 018
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 13W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 17.5N 141.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 141.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.4N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.3N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.0N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.8N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.4N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.1N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 26.1N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 141.2E.
SUPER TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 268 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z
AND 041500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

Looks around 145 knts due to lag, but probs 150-155 knts face value.

[euro6208]

135 knots is too low...

looks like 145-155 knots...

[cycloneye]