ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

Probably a TD at 11

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[Gustywind]

Eastern Atlantic Disturbance Could End Tropical Drought


Kristina Pydynowski

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

August 18, 2015; 6:27 AM ET

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... e/51812700

The Atlantic Basin has been quiet for more than a month, but a disturbance in the eastern Atlantic will attempt to end the tropical drought this week.

AccuWeather meteorologists are keeping a close eye on a tropical wave several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands for potential development.

The system is moving through an environment where the is sufficiently warm to support development and disruptive wind shear is lacking.

"The biggest concern [as to whether the system can develop] is dry air," stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Steve Travis.

Wind shear may not be as strong as it has been across the eastern Caribbean by the time the system arrives," Leister said.

Anyone with interests in the eastern Atlantic and Caribbean should continue to monitor the progress of this low for updates to any future impacts.

While the prospect of damaging winds and flooding would like to be avoided, the Caribbean Islands are in need of soaking rain from tropical systems to combat the ongoing drought.

The drought has reached such extreme levels that officials have been forced to government officials to enact water rationing programs on Puerto Rico.

[Gustywind]

From Accuweather Meterologist.

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail ... deowal_lin

[Blown Away]

Look at these numbers, 96L is maybe close to a TD given these numbers... Note the first approach above the 9°N.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
18/1145 UTC 10.2N 35.9W T2.0/2.0 96L
18/0545 UTC 9.5N 34.4W T1.5/1.5 96L
18/0000 UTC 9.3N 33.2W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/1745 UTC 9.8N 32.8W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/1145 UTC 9.6N 31.0W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/0545 UTC 9.8N 29.9W T1.0/1.0 96L

@40 mile reposition to the N from 06z...

[SouthDadeFish]

I'd be quite surprised if this isn't named a TD at 15Z. Really coming together nicely on visible satellite imagery.

[wxman57]

I'd be quite surprised if this isn't named a TD at 15Z. Really coming together nicely on visible satellite imagery.

I agree. Overnight Euro is much weaker when it reaches the Caribbean Monday night/Tuesday morning. I agree with that, too. TS moving through the Lesser Antilles and steadily weakening beyond then as it encounters the more hostile environment.

[gatorcane]

I'd be quite surprised if this isn't named a TD at 15Z. Really coming together nicely on visible satellite imagery.

I agree. Overnight Euro is much weaker when it reaches the Caribbean Monday night/Tuesday morning. I agree with that, too. TS moving through the Lesser Antilles and steadily weakening beyond then as it encounters the more hostile environment.

Are we sure it may not take a track just north of the Lesser Antilles? Also it is going to be in the Caribbean 7+ days from now according to the models. Hard to say what the conditions will be like then. Had we gone by the global models from late last week, we would have said this thing would have already been killed by the dry air and shear.

Not sold on a total collapse in the Caribbean should it go there. Also it may not even go there, it may end up a little north of the islands if it ends up taking a track the UKMET shows and conditions could be better there.

[Alyono]

looking closer at the EC, there is something off. The core appears to be severely disrupted by Martinique. Pressure increases 6 mb over the island. That does not seem realistic

[gatorcane]

Up to 90/90

Thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands has continued to become better organized this morning.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and only a slight increase in organization would result in the
formation of a tropical depression later today while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

5-day forecast graphic. This shows the NHC is putting some weight into the UKMET because if the system can deepen enough over the next 5 days it probably will gain a decent amount of latitude (maybe even head NW for a time) since there would be a temporary weakness over the West-Central Atlantic, the system would be steered more by steering in the mid-levels.

[CrazyC83]

New ASCAT pass from Levi Cohan on Twitter: I say we have TD4.

[wxman57]

Are we sure it may not take a track just north of the Lesser Antilles? Also it is going to be in the Caribbean 7+ days from now according to the models. Hard to say what the conditions will be like then. Had we gone by the global models from late last week, we would have said this thing would have already been killed by the dry air and shear.

Not sold on a total collapse in the Caribbean should it go there. Also it may not even go there, it may end up a little north of the islands if it ends up taking a track the UKMET shows and conditions could be better there.

I'm not 100% certain it will enter the Caribbean, but I think it will do so based on what I'm seeing now. I don't think that the current (and predicted next week) wind shear starting west of 65W will be gone when it gets there.

[gatorcane]

New ASCAT pass from Levi Cohan on Twitter: I say we have TD4.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMsir0bWEAAOE-x.png

Well I think they should start issuing advisories at 11AM EST based on that and looking at the SAT presentation which quite impressive for something not designated. We will see what they decide.

[ConvergenceZone]

I guess it depends on how strong it gets when it encounters the shear. If it's much stronger than what's forecast, then it may still hold together. Sometimes, as we know, these systems have a mind of their own and go against what's predicated of them.

[SouthDadeFish]

I am curious to see the NHC intensity forecast. There is quite a difference between most of the global models and the statistical models. Maybe they split the difference and forecast a strong TS?

Situations such as these are why the scientific community still has a hard time accurately forecasting intensity.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like a TC to me.

[Yellow Evan]

Thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands has continued to become better organized this morning.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and only a slight increase in organization would result in the
formation of a tropical depression later today while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[SouthDadeFish]

Cyclonic banding continuing to improve:

[tropicwatch]

From FNMOC

[CrazyC83]

NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Depression Four in the east-central tropical Atlantic at 11 AM EDT.

NHC Twitter account https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status ... 6481668096

[gatorcane]

Looks like it may finally be gaining a little latitude when I look at the vis floater loop below: