EPAC: IGNACIO - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Doubt recon will find an 80kt storm at this rate.

I think this may be trying to clear a ragged eye.

[Kingarabian]

Doubt recon will find an 80kt storm at this rate.

I think this may be trying to clear a ragged eye.

Euro initialized at 990mb. Seems about right.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro shifts closer to the big island.



Stronger ridge it seems, maybe even has Jimena moving into the CPAC.

[Kingarabian]

This is surprising:

[Alyono]

as I said, it lost its CCC pattern

[Kingarabian]

as I said, it lost its CCC pattern

Well even then, looks like a lot of dry air is being mixed in right now. Think the eyewall collapsing again.

[Alyono]

as I said, it lost its CCC pattern

Well even then, looks like a lot of dry air is being mixed in right now. Think the eyewall collapsing again.

this is the reorganization. It is finally intensifying

[Kingarabian]

Looks a lot better than yesterday, I agree, but the eye feature needs to tuck back in under the CDO:

[Yellow Evan]

as I said, it lost its CCC pattern

Well even then, looks like a lot of dry air is being mixed in right now. Think the eyewall collapsing again.

Disagreed, notice how convection is starting to wrap around the clearing eye at last. It appears to be mixing out the dry air and becoming more CDO dominant.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  IGNACIO     EP122015  08/28/15  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    80    81    82    83    87    87    87    83    81    77    75    72    74
V (KT) LAND       80    81    82    83    87    87    87    83    81    77    75    72    74
V (KT) LGE mod    80    81    83    85    87    88    85    80    74    68    63    59    59
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         9     9     5     4     5     5     7    14    17    22    23    25    18
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -3    -6    -5    -4    -4    -5    -2     1     1     3     0     0    -3
SHEAR DIR         77    84    65   355   331   277   227   241   231   218   223   222   227
SST (C)         28.4  28.2  28.1  27.9  27.7  27.4  27.4  27.4  27.5  27.5  27.5  27.3  27.3
POT. INT. (KT)   148   146   145   143   140   137   137   137   138   138   138   136   136
200 MB T (C)   -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     9     9     9    10    10     9     8     8     8     8     7
700-500 MB RH     66    66    64    62    61    59    60    62    63    62    60    57    51
MODEL VTX (KT)    23    23    23    24    27    25    27    27    29    29    29    28    30
850 MB ENV VOR    43    44    47    50    51    52    59    74    87    86    74    89    90
200 MB DIV        40    30    25    14    24     9    19    23    44    44    25    30    12
700-850 TADV      -4    -3    -1     0     3     0     1     7    13    15    10     8     9
LAND (KM)       1261  1159  1058   960   864   701   519   355   211   152   132   196   258
LAT (DEG N)     14.4  14.8  15.2  15.7  16.2  17.0  17.8  18.8  19.8  20.8  21.8  22.8  24.0
LONG(DEG W)    144.2 145.0 145.9 146.7 147.4 148.7 150.2 151.5 152.8 154.0 155.3 156.5 157.6
STM SPEED (KT)     9     9     9     9     8     8     8     8     8     8     7     7     8
HEAT CONTENT      29    29    28    29    28    30    34    30    36    28    22    25    16

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10      CX,CY:  -8/  4
  T-12 MAX WIND:  80            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  453  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  15.8 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  92.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   1.   1.  -1.  -4.  -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   0.   0.   1.   3.   5.   5.   5.   3.   0.  -2.  -4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -7.  -8. -10. -10. -10. -10.  -9.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   1.   4.   3.   6.   6.   9.   8.   9.   8.  11.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   5.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   2.   3.   7.   7.   7.   3.   1.  -3.  -4.  -8.  -6.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO    08/28/15  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.8
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   6.6 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  64.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.3
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  15.8 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.7
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  28.6 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  26.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.4
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  67.6 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    23% is   1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    21% is   2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    14% is   2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    11% is   2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO    08/28/15  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

Looking a lot better than yesterday. New CDO and a curved band to work with. 80kts is justifiable. Now, let's see if it can clear out an eye. Really reminds me of what Guillermo went through although Ignacio has better conditions.

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA23 PHFO 282054
TCMCP3

HURRICANE IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IGNACIO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 144.5W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..170NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 144.5W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 144.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.1N 145.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.1N 147.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.0N 148.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.0N 150.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 19.8N 152.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 21.8N 155.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 23.9N 157.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 144.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[Kingarabian]

WTPA43 PHFO 282104
TCDCP3

HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 28 2015

IGNACIO/S CDO DEVOLVED TO A RAGGED BUT VERY SHARPLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND A COUPLE OF SSMI/S
OVERPASSES AROUND 1620 UTC SHOWED A PARTIAL EYE FEATURE WRAPPING
NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 4.5-5.0 AND THUS WE WILL MAINTAIN AN
80 KT INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305
DEGREES AT ABOUT 7 KT TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...
BUT THERE ARE SOME NOTEWORTHY OUTLIERS LIKE THE NAVGEM AND CANADIAN
MODELS WHICH ARE STILL WELL LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS
ALSO ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ONE REASON FOR THIS
IS THAT MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE
EFFECT OF INCREASED WIND SHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO START IMPACTING
IGNACIO AFTER 2-3 DAYS...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY IMPART A MORE
WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 3 DAYS. WITH THIS IN MIND...IT IS VERY
IMPORTANT FOR PEOPLE NOT TO RELY TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK ESPECIALLY AT THE LONGER TIME RANGES.

IGNACIO IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT NEAR AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
28.5C. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN OVER 28C ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...THEN BEGIN DROPPING SLIGHTLY. WIND SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING
SOUTHWEST SHEAR BEGINS TO START AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED IN THE DAYS 3-5 TIME FRAME...AND OUR INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS A FASTER WEAKENING TREND OCCURRING THAN MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE LGEM...IN THE FACE OF THIS
MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 14.6N 144.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 15.1N 145.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 16.1N 147.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 17.0N 148.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 18.0N 150.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 19.8N 152.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 21.8N 155.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 23.9N 157.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS a little more south.

[Kingarabian]

Eye really trying to clear.

[Kingarabian]

[Alyono]

while a miss is the most likely outcome, it is by no means certain. still have to carefully monitor this

[Yellow Evan]

TXPN27 KNES 282351
TCSCNP

A. 12E (IGNACIO)

B. 28/2330Z

C. 15.1N

D. 144.8W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOUD FILLED EYE. IN EIR, MG EYE
IS EMBEDDED IN MG AND SURROUNDED BY LG RESULTING IN A DT OF 4.0 AFTER
0.5 IS SUBTRACTED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE ALSO 4.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK