ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[PTrackerLA]

HWRF raises an eyebrow on that 500mb map but I'll take it with a grain of salt for now.

[tolakram]

You can look at this page: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

and back up to just about any date you want to compare model runs.

[OuterBanker]

Thanks Tolakram. Great link, instant favorite.

[OuterBanker]

NOAA has some great things available. The trick is knowing where to find them.

[SouthFLTropics]

12Z GFS running...out to 24 hours so far.

[Blown Away]

06z GFDL... Moderate TS at 126 hours and was intensifying at that time...


06z HWRF... Cat 1 at 126 hours and was intensifying at that time...

[dixiebreeze]

Here fishy fishy fishy....Anyone know what goes great with fried fish?

A bowl of grits.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Here fishy fishy fishy....Anyone know what goes great with fried fish?

A bowl of grits.

lol I hope you got the point. Magical trough will save us.

[OuterBanker]

NOAA has some great things available. The trick is knowing where to find them.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS sends 98L through Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Bahamas/Cuba and into South Florida and shows a lot of rain with this system. This would be great news for Puerto Rico and SE Florida in particular because of the drought both regions are seeing.

[SouthFLTropics]

12Z GFS sends 98L through Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Bahamas/Cuba and into South Florida and shows a lot of rain with this system. This would be great news for Puerto Rico and SE Florida in particular because of the drought both regions are seeing.

Drought buster at hour 126 on GFS

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS at 138 hours with South Florida getting drenched:

[PTrackerLA]

12Z GFS sends 98L through Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Bahamas/Cuba and into South Florida and shows a lot of rain with this system. This would be great news for Puerto Rico and SE Florida in particular because of the drought both regions are seeing.

Yep GFS showing just a tropical wave. I'm seeing wind shear 50-60kts in the GOM by the time it would be there . This season...

[Blown Away]

12Z GFS sends 98L through Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Bahamas/Cuba and into South Florida and shows a lot of rain with this system. This would be great news for Puerto Rico and SE Florida in particular because of the drought both regions are seeing.

Forget a named system, it seems like forever since a tropical wave has moved over SFL...

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS shows 98L turning north in the Eastern Gulf but not getting stronger, its out at 162 hours. GFS has been very consistent with this forecast for 98L the past several runs while the ECMWF has been consistent showing something stronger and recurving east of the Bahamas.

[Siker]

150 hours on the 12z GFS. If something were to develop, that is not a recurve track; someone on the East Coast would get raked:

[SouthFLTropics]

12Z GFS at 138 hours with South Florida getting drenched:

Mother nature always makes up for herself. That's a drought buster there.

[gatorcane]

150 hours on the 12z GFS. If something were to develop, that is not a recurve track; someone on the East Coast would get raked:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_26.png

GFS continues to trend with a stronger Bermuda High each run. The ECMWF hasn't (yet).

The Bermuda High has been abnormally strong most of this summer (it's why we are in such a drought here in SE Florida with constant E to ESE wind flow) so maybe the GFS solution is possible.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like the low from 98L forms in the GOM SW of Tampa around hour 168 and then moves NE towards the west Florida coast.

SFT

[gatorcane]

12Z GEM has shifted south through 96 hours.