Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

GFDL will be upgraded on May 17

Effective Tuesday, May 17, 2011, beginning with the 1200
Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will upgrade the Geophysical
Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Hurricane Prediction System.
The scientific changes to the model include the following:

- Upgrade Simplified Arakawa-Schubert (SAS) deep convection
parameterization to new version implemented in the NCEP
Global Forecast System (GFS)
- Modify the surface enthalpy exchange coefficient and
dissipative heating effect
- Expand coupled region in the Eastern Atlantic domain
to prevent storms from losing coupling effect with the
ocean due to insufficient overlap with the Western Atlantic
region. The new overlap will be 25 degrees.
- Correct several bugs in the model.

In testing, these improvements resulted in an average reduction
of forecast error of about 20 percent in the Atlantic basin for
the 3 to 5 day forecast period for tests of storms from the 2010
Atlantic hurricane season.

Product Changes:

The following will be added to the GFDL model output GRIB files:

Model-predicted 10 meter winds will be outputted in addition to
the lowest model level 35 meter winds.

The GFDL hurricane model GRIB products are disseminated via the
NCEP and NWS FTP servers and are not available on NOAAPORT or
AWIPS. These changes will result in no change in product
dissemination time. There will be only a minor increase in
product size.

[Florida1118]

My computer normally runs pretty fast with things, but with the new page it is just horrible with speed. It took nearly 4 minutes to look at the GFS run once. Im not liking it all that much thus far.

[cycloneye]

My computer normally runs pretty fast with things, but with the new page it is just horrible with speed. It took nearly 4 minutes to look at the GFS run once. Im not liking it all that much thus far.

Agree on that as I go thru the same slow pace. It needs to improve.

[srainhoutx]

Loads fine for me and I enjoy the zoom feature on my 20" monitor. I also like the improved 'zoomed in' Western Atlantic for Tropical activty.

[cycloneye]

Loads fine for me and I enjoy the zoom feature on my 20" monitor. I also like the improved 'zoomed in' Western Atlantic for Tropical activty.

That Western Atlantic area is good with the zooms. Maybe is my PC on the loop part.

[ROCK]

GFS has a long way to go if you want to compare it with the CMC and EURO from last year. Although I think it handles developing waves well it is awful track wise....JMO....heres hoping it falls in line with the other global models and we have constistancy this year.....

[cycloneye]

GFS has a long way to go if you want to compare it with the CMC and EURO from last year. Although I think it handles developing waves well it is awful track wise....JMO....heres hoping it falls in line with the other global models and we have constistancy this year.....

Let's see if the upgrade helps improve the GFS eficiency.

[Migle]

GFS has a long way to go if you want to compare it with the CMC and EURO from last year. Although I think it handles developing waves well it is awful track wise....JMO....heres hoping it falls in line with the other global models and we have constistancy this year.....

Not sure about that, the EURO had a serious East or West (Can't Remember Which) bias last year.

[ROCK]

GFS has a long way to go if you want to compare it with the CMC and EURO from last year. Although I think it handles developing waves well it is awful track wise....JMO....heres hoping it falls in line with the other global models and we have constistancy this year.....

Not sure about that, the EURO had a serious East or West (Can't Remember Which) bias last year.

CMC out dueled them all but 2nd in line IMO would have been the EURO. Though the EURO had a hard time developing a storm it did captured the upper air dynamics up stream well last year....there is no denying that year after year the EURO out performs the GFS. IN the end though it is a blend of all of them that nails it.....

Not trying to start another model war or anything. We havent even started the season yet!!...

[srainhoutx]

FYI: The old NCEP Model Page decommission has been delayed:

This site is scheduled to be decommissioned
on August 29, 2011. Please bookmark the new
Model Analyses and Guidance
Web site which replaces it.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

[Rgv20]

cool, maybe I was in the minority but I prefer the old NCEP Model Page

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow: cool, maybe I was in the minority but I prefer the old NCEP Model Page

I prefer the old one too Rgv! I'm glad it got delayed!

[cycloneye]

A crossover disturbance from EPAC to Caribbean? Look closely at the 4/7/11 12z loop from GFS.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... t=Loop+All

[cycloneye]

The 4/8/11 00z GFS doesn't have the crossover,but shows a disturbance at the EPAC,and yeah,by the time I will be in a cruise down there. But is long range so changes will come.


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... t=Loop+All

[Ivanhater]

If you believe the CFS model, we may have some Western Caribbean mischief at the end of May





Full loop

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... HIV=0&WMO=

[cycloneye]

HWRF and GFDL are doing test runs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[xironman]

One of the first westward moving disturbances of this season in ATL, going NE of PR on Euro

[xironman]

Crazy uncle likes it



NOGAPS FWIW

[cycloneye]

Also,GFS has a mini reflection of that NE of the Leewards.

[cycloneye]

4/16/11 12z CMC continues to say Hello Arlene. Graphic doesn't update as is uploaded by imageshack.us.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation