ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1961 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:04 pm

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#1962 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:04 pm

12Z ECMWF 500MB height anomaly map - ridge is strong through 48 hours so far:

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#1963 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:07 pm

12Z ECMWF 72 hours over the Gulf stream off SE coast of Florida.
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1964 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:08 pm

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#1965 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:08 pm

EURO is going to Miami, but its a pretty weak system. The trof over the SE is NOT going to be the greatest for intensification *as shown by the EURO* it needs to be further WEST for the bahamas to be super prime for take off...
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1966 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:09 pm

Looking at the high rez weatherbell maps, pretty weak and getting weaker as it approaches south Florida. Intensity forecasts stink, just relating the info.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1967 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:10 pm

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#1968 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:11 pm

EURO barely has anything showing up on the SFC reflection.
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Re:

#1969 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:12 pm

deltadog03 wrote:EURO is going to Miami, but its a pretty weak system. The trof over the SE is NOT going to be the greatest for intensification *as shown by the EURO* it needs to be further WEST for the bahamas to be super prime for take off...


Well 5pm update I think we will see a SFL landfall again...Very tight cluster now somewhere along the FL coast. Lets just hope RI is not in the forecast.
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#1970 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:13 pm

12Z ECMWF 500MB setup at 72 hours. Trough over Northern Gulf is lifting out and Bermuda High is building in, when you loop.

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1971 Postby RevDodd » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:13 pm

I see the latest HWRF projection sends a rejuvenated Erika to Savannah as a Cat 3.
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Re:

#1972 Postby tgenius » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:14 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z ECMWF 500MB setup at 72 hours:

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That high looks pretty strong... now its a matter of intensity... the news Media is going hit overdrive if that cone shifts back down to Miami @ 5...
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1973 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:14 pm

Into the Gulf?

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#1974 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:15 pm

12Z HWRF, barely offshore West Palm Beach at 968MB: :eek:

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#1975 Postby Alyono » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:19 pm

EC has easterly wind shear over it as it approaches Florida?

Maybe an Ernesto from 2006?
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1976 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:19 pm

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1977 Postby blp » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:20 pm

:uarrow: What is telling about that run on the HWRF is that even with a strong system it is trending further west. This tells me the Ridge is certainly getting stronger run to run. Not so much an issue with the storms strength dictating the track as much as before.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1978 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:20 pm

EURO following the UKMET sort of.....man this system has got the models all jacked up :D

HWRF- all I can say is lol...
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1979 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:21 pm

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1980 Postby N2FSU » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:21 pm

Euro +96hr

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