Global model runs discussion

[Ivanhater]

Even though this is still to far out, I dont remember seeing the GFS show this strong development this early..very impressive

[gatorcane]

Look at how strong this Western Caribbean system is for the 06Z run . Also check out that tropical system aproaching the lesser Antilles. Note the CMC is also spinning something up in the Eastern Caribbean as well (see the previous page).

The GFS thinks we are in August

[Weatherfreak14]

I just looked at the 06Z GFs and i was shocked to see that it shows some kind of development. This is going to be interesting if this comes to play out over the next two weeks. GFS suggest it could become quite well defined and organized. Lets see what happens.

[cycloneye]

Note=When and if and its a huge if at this point anything convectionwise forms in the SW Caribbean,(In other words the famous Blobwatching) will have its own thread at Talking Tropics forum and not be discussed in this thread as this one is only for Models,Models,Models

[gatorcane]

The 06Z GFS develops this system from a low that develops in 162 hours, 7 days from now. Though far, the GFS has gotten better at forecasting in the 5-7 day range.



By 240 hours, the system has really organized and already heading NNW towards the NW Caribbean. At 384 hours I took a look at the 500MB flow when this thing is in th NW Caribbean just south of the Western tip of Cuba. The flow is pretty zonal with no large-scale troughs seen in the CONUS.



That would mean a continue NNW movement perhaps, or some kind of stall in the NW Caribbean, who knows.

[wyq614]

Cuban computer model, although dull, also predicts some intense rain in the Southwestern Caribbean (coast of Nicaragua)

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... as/lluvia/

You won't be blocked from it.

[Evil Jeremy]

Ugh, its to early for this. Model watching, and its only April, not the other "A" month lol.

[gatorcane]

500MB flow at 384 hours -- 998MB impressive cyclone in the NW Caribbean drifting NW...steering currents appear pretty weak:

[cycloneye]

The 12z GFS shows a much weaker run as the pressure goes down to 1005 mbs,distint from the past runs that had a below 1000 mb system.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_336l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Derek Ortt]

guys, the 384 hour forecast has no skill at all. It is a blind folded guess (its like going all in with a 7 2 offsuit)

does give me some incentive to finish last season's verification though

[gatorcane]

Farther right in this run, towards Eastern Cuba.

In the previous run it was near the Yucatan.

[Cane Scared]

I know this is just more info but the Farmers Almanac predicts Florida to have a Tropical Storm sometime in May. I guess at this date my info is just as accurate as the Models. Time will tell. It would be one way for Florida to get her spring showers, just all at once.

[tolakram]

I seem to remember the models predicting a May storm last year (year before?) and as we got closer to the date the predicted storm shifted to the EPAC.

[wxman57]

I seem to remember the models predicting a May storm last year (year before?) and as we got closer to the date the predicted storm shifted to the EPAC.

Yep, you can pretty much count on the GFS to forecast such development on every run from now on. Occasionally it will be right, but not likely in May.

[Cainer]

I seem to remember the models predicting a May storm last year (year before?) and as we got closer to the date the predicted storm shifted to the EPAC.

Yep, that was last year; and it actually did develop into Alma, which (sort of) developed into Arthur. So I guess you could say the GFS was right now matter which basin you're looking at .

[ROCK]

Intersting to see the GFS in May showing anything at 384hr but I have to agree with Derek....the GFS at 384 is in la la land.

[brunota2003]

Seems the crack input has started early this year. Just means we are that much closer to the start...what does the LBAR say?

[boca]

Someone made a comment that the GFS has made improvements in their forecasting.They said it was in the meduim range ( 5 to 7 days). When did this happen or did it happen?

[Evil Jeremy]

I think the GFS overdosed while celebrating 4-20 lol.

[gatorcane]

GFS 06Z makes a close pass at Southern FL but stalls it just south of there (image below). 00Z GFS, moves it through Central Cuba and just east of Southern FL into the Bahamas, also faster and more to the right. That path is more likely for a May system.