ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

[floridasun78]

i see rain go all way to western cuba it big area

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%-50%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure over northern Belize and the Yucatan
peninsula is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms and
winds to near gale force over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Environmental conditions should support some development of this
system when it moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by
tomorrow night and across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico through
Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible over
the Yucatan peninsula during the next day or so. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Blake

[Nimbus]

Texas would be flooded again under the current forecast.
Just off the Texas coast there is some upper level wind shift that would be consistent with the western periphery of a high pressure dome starting to build over the GOM.
That may sweep the track right a little in later model runs.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 91, 2015061318, , BEST, 0, 181N, 885W, 30, 1009, DB

[vbhoutex]

The latest from Jeff Lindner concerning 91L:

Global model solution continue to suggest possible tropical cyclone formation over the Gulf of Mexico early next week in association with an upper level trough and tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean Sea.

There has been little change overnight and now the 3rd run of models suggesting the potential for development in the western Gulf of Mexico from late Sunday into Tuesday. While upper level conditions appear marginal at best, the western Gulf is notorious for highly sheared tropical systems. The pattern setup is very similar to TS Allison (2001). The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring the area and indicates a 30% chance of development potential over the Gulf of Mexico early next week…up from 10% last evening. Given the model support the chances may be higher than 30%.

Steering pattern is fairly straight forward that any development will move toward the WNW to NW toward the NW Gulf coast. Tremendous influx of Caribbean tropical moisture is already underway and any development of a tropical system will only help to focus and enhance an already highly wet forecast. The flooding potential is certainly increasing with potential rainfall amounts over the next 5-7 days approaching 5-8 inches over the region south of I-10. Isolated totals of up to 10 inches or greater is certainly possible.

Tides are already running .5-1.0 feet above normal and increasing ESE fetch will only increase them more going into Monday…possibly up to 2.0 ft. Global model tracks of potential surface low formation across our coastal waters next week would suggest increasing coastal impacts as early as Tuesday especially with tides and wave action. Will need to keep a close eye on tides if any tropical system forms to our south/southwest as we could get close to 4.0 ft along the Gulf beaches and in the bay for coastal flooding.

Note: El Nino summers support such short duration tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico.

The latest map I saw from NHC has a a 40-60 percent chance of development over the next 5 days.

[tailgater]

Latest 850 mb vorticity increasing.

[MiamiensisWx]

The 12Z GFS shows only light to moderate 24-hour rainfall along the TX coast and inland (with cumulative precipitation of 6-8 inches in a relatively narrow band along the barrier islands)...this system shouldn't really be a big deal except in very low-lying areas like Houston...and even there, the flooding following Allison 2001 was mostly a human-made problem, as was Katrina's flooding in New Orleans. Poor drainage systems plus politics/inertia equal bad results.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-90&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

[Kingarabian]

The 12Z GFS shows only light to moderate 24-hour rainfall along the TX coast and inland (with cumulative precipitation of 6-8 inches in a relatively narrow band along the barrier islands)...this system shouldn't really be a big deal except in very low-lying areas like Houston...and even there, the flooding following Allison 2001 was mostly a human-made problem, as was Katrina's flooding in New Orleans. Poor drainage systems plus politics/inertia equal bad results.

It's going to be an interesting week for Texas because there's Carlos in the EPAC that could make landfall in Northern Mexico. Usually EPAC storms that make landfall that North send moisture over or near Texas. Could be a 1 - 2 punch of rainfall when combined with 91L.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Alyono]

The 12Z GFS shows only light to moderate 24-hour rainfall along the TX coast and inland (with cumulative precipitation of 6-8 inches in a relatively narrow band along the barrier islands)...this system shouldn't really be a big deal except in very low-lying areas like Houston...and even there, the flooding following Allison 2001 was mostly a human-made problem, as was Katrina's flooding in New Orleans. Poor drainage systems plus politics/inertia equal bad results.

you can take the GFS precip for a TC event and double it

[cycloneye]

Here are the Cozumel and Cancun cams.

http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-cozumel.html

http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-cancun.html

[tailgater]

The 12Z GFS shows only light to moderate 24-hour rainfall along the TX coast and inland (with cumulative precipitation of 6-8 inches in a relatively narrow band along the barrier islands)...this system shouldn't really be a big deal except in very low-lying areas like Houston...and even there, the flooding following Allison 2001 was mostly a human-made problem, as was Katrina's flooding in New Orleans. Poor drainage systems plus politics/inertia equal bad results.

Hopefully we wont get that much rain. La. is soggy now with standing water in parts of my yard now.Also I think the flooding problems from Allison and Katrina were more from record rainfalls and record storm surge.

[bohaiboy]

"

The 12Z GFS shows only light to moderate 24-hour rainfall along the TX coast and inland (with cumulative precipitation of 6-8 inches in a relatively narrow band along the barrier islands)...this system shouldn't really be a big deal except in very low-lying areas like Houston...and even there, the flooding following Allison 2001 was mostly a human-made problem, as was Katrina's flooding in New Orleans. Poor drainage systems plus politics/inertia equal bad results.

On your response to Allison in Houston. Show me a city that can take over 30" of rain in less than two days and not flood. That is a very irresponsible statement. In regards to New Orleans (where I ahve lived also) there were some problems due to non maintenance of levees, but then again you have to remember the city on average is flat and below sea level.

[vbhoutex]

The 12Z GFS shows only light to moderate 24-hour rainfall along the TX coast and inland (with cumulative precipitation of 6-8 inches in a relatively narrow band along the barrier islands)...this system shouldn't really be a big deal except in very low-lying areas like Houston...and even there, the flooding following Allison 2001 was mostly a human-made problem, as was Katrina's flooding in New Orleans. Poor drainage systems plus politics/inertia equal bad results.

Must disagree strongly with this post. Allison flooding was due to tremendous amounts of rainfall in short periods of time over 5 different days. There is no drainage system that I know of that can handle almost 30 inches of rain in 24 hours which is what areas of Houston had June 8-9, 2001. That was after 3 other days with more than usual rains over the entire area. Houston, overall is not a low lying area. It is a flat area which makes it difficult to drain quickly when copious amounts of rain fall in short periods of time.

The problem I see with 91L if it develops and if it heads to the mid or upper Texas coast is that it will be laying down lots of rain on top of already saturated grounds that may have an additional 6"+ of rain before anything from a tropical system gets here(some areas of Houston have already had that much rain today). Last time I checked that was a big deal in anyone's book. Even though 91L is an invest only at this point tides are already running well above normal along the LA and Upper TX coasts. As the system heads towards this area the tides will continue to increase which will make natural drainage systems slower drain also. IF we do have TS winds on top of copious rains and saturated grounds that could also lead to power outages from downed limbs and trees falling onto power lines. A lot to think about and watch over the next several days and not a time to downplay or to hype the possibilities.

[KatDaddy]

Looking a little better on satellite this afternoon and definitely see some rotation over the Yucatan. One thing for sure is that we don't need any more rain for SE TX. Picked up 3.74" just this morning in NW Galveston County. Time to start watching the models much more closely.

[cycloneye]

Those in Texas apart from what moisture 91L sends have to watch the Carlos angle to see if it makes landfall on the Mexican coast near Puerto Vallarta because the moisture would go to that state. 1-2 moisture combo possible.

[latitude_20]

It's amazing how quickly the convective coverage area exploded in size. Surface convergence and tropopause divergence seem to be aligning. Finally something to watch.

[1900hurricane]

I feel track philosophy is pretty straightforward overall. A break in subtropical riding exists over the south-central CONUS and the eastern ridge should steer 91L into that break, which should exist in about the same location for at least the next five days. Also as mentioned above, model precipitation output shouldn't be taken verbatim, especially in a case like this. Global models could very well be under-doing the rainfall considering the very high PW airmass, and on top of that, they likely cannot resolve some of the more localized precipitation cores that are possible with any landfalling tropical cyclone.

[Wx_Warrior]

Looking at latest EURO projections, Houston could see 10"+ of rain if holds true

[northjaxpro]

The more I look at the most recent models, this is looking rather ominous for the Houston met area and SE TX in general. Now, this could shift east toward the Louisiana coast with the extreme flood potential, so will watch carefully. But, the real potential for severe flooding is looming ominously next week in that region, LA or SE TX.