TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012015
1100 PM HST THU JUL 09 2015
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW PRESSURE AREA FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS
PERSISTED TO THE POINT THAT THE SYSTEM QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. WHILE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM
1.0 TO 1.5...AN EARLIER RAPIDSCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS AS HIGH
AS 30 KT NORTH OF THE CENTER. THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS SET AT 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR IS 270/08 KT...WITH THE DEPRESSION
LOCATED SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTH. THE
RIDGE WILL SUPPORT A GENERAL TRACK TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CLOSE TO THE
GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE TVCY CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
ANTICIPATES A STEADY INTENSIFICATION RATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS THAT SLOWS IN THE LATER PERIODS AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND FOLLOWS TRENDS PRESENTED BY
THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 11.4N 170.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 11.4N 172.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 11.6N 173.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 12.0N 176.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 12.7N 178.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 14.0N 178.0E 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 16.0N 174.0E 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 18.0N 170.0E 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
WPAC: HALOLA - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
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Re: CPAC: HALOLA - Tropical Storm
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Re: CPAC: ONE-C - Tropical Depression
May affect Wake Island down the road...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: CPAC: ONE-C - Tropical Depression
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012015
500 AM HST FRI JUL 10 2015
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS ONE-C CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED...WITH THE LLCC HIDDEN BENEATH LAYERED CLOUDS AND BORDERED
BY SPORADICALLY FIRING CUMULONIMBUS...CB...TO THE EAST AND WEST.
OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL...THOUGH FAVORED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
NORTH. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM
1.5 FROM JTWC AND PHFO...TO 1.0 FROM SAB...REFLECTING THE CONTINUED
SLOW COALESCENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. AN 0919 UTC ASCAT PASS SAMPLED THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT MISSED THE CENTER. A
SIZABLE SWATH OF 25 KT WINDS WERE NOTED ALONG WHAT WOULD BE THE
NORTHWEST FLANK. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT WEAKENED FROM THE LAST FORECAST
CYCLE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR ONE-C IS SET AT 30 KT THIS TIME
AS WELL.
INITIAL SYSTEM MOTION IS 270/06 KT...ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST
TIME...WITH ANY DIFFERENCE LIKELY THE RESULT OF EARLIER LOW
CONFIDENCE IN INITIAL POSITION. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SOUTH OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED FAR TO ITS NORTH. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
TVCY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS ALTERED SLIGHTLY TO
THE RIGHT BEYOND 48 HOURS...SPLITTING THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND LATEST TVCY GUIDANCE AT TAU 72...96 AND
120.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO ANTICIPATE A STEADY
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THAT SLOWS IN THE LATER
PERIODS AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. THIS FOLLOWS TRENDS PRESENTED BY THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE BUT IS STRONGER THAN SHIPS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 11.4N 171.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 11.4N 172.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 11.8N 174.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 12.4N 176.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 13.2N 178.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 14.9N 177.4E 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 16.9N 173.6E 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 19.0N 169.7E 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012015
500 AM HST FRI JUL 10 2015
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS ONE-C CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED...WITH THE LLCC HIDDEN BENEATH LAYERED CLOUDS AND BORDERED
BY SPORADICALLY FIRING CUMULONIMBUS...CB...TO THE EAST AND WEST.
OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL...THOUGH FAVORED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
NORTH. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM
1.5 FROM JTWC AND PHFO...TO 1.0 FROM SAB...REFLECTING THE CONTINUED
SLOW COALESCENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. AN 0919 UTC ASCAT PASS SAMPLED THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT MISSED THE CENTER. A
SIZABLE SWATH OF 25 KT WINDS WERE NOTED ALONG WHAT WOULD BE THE
NORTHWEST FLANK. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT WEAKENED FROM THE LAST FORECAST
CYCLE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR ONE-C IS SET AT 30 KT THIS TIME
AS WELL.
INITIAL SYSTEM MOTION IS 270/06 KT...ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST
TIME...WITH ANY DIFFERENCE LIKELY THE RESULT OF EARLIER LOW
CONFIDENCE IN INITIAL POSITION. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SOUTH OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED FAR TO ITS NORTH. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
TVCY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS ALTERED SLIGHTLY TO
THE RIGHT BEYOND 48 HOURS...SPLITTING THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND LATEST TVCY GUIDANCE AT TAU 72...96 AND
120.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO ANTICIPATE A STEADY
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THAT SLOWS IN THE LATER
PERIODS AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. THIS FOLLOWS TRENDS PRESENTED BY THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE BUT IS STRONGER THAN SHIPS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 11.4N 171.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 11.4N 172.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 11.8N 174.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 12.4N 176.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 13.2N 178.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 14.9N 177.4E 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 16.9N 173.6E 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 19.0N 169.7E 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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Yellow Evan
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ONE CP012015 07/10/15 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 42 47 50 50 50 47 47 46
V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 42 47 50 50 50 47 47 46
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 32 34 36 38 41 43 44 44 45
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 2 4 6 6 6 9 8 7 14 14 22 19 23
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -4 -4 -3 -2 -4 -1 0 -1 -1 -4
SHEAR DIR 237 203 214 259 286 302 282 253 266 247 250 252 266
SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 147 147 147 147 147 145 144 145 146 145 145
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7
TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 10 10
700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 58 59 58 61 64 65 63 62 61 57
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 13 12 11
850 MB ENV VOR 112 106 105 105 102 86 78 69 59 49 20 19 -1
200 MB DIV 1 13 21 21 -2 34 43 71 57 62 0 17 -10
700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 8 6 0 3
LAND (KM) 1706 1778 1854 1936 2023 2172 4176 4064 3962 3867 3704 3475 3262
LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.7 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.0 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.6 17.8 18.8 19.7
LONG(DEG W) 171.6 172.6 173.6 174.8 176.0 178.0 180.2 182.0 183.7 185.6 187.8 189.7 191.5
STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 33 32 35 47 56 53 62 60 59 58 57 60 53
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 23. 25. 27. 29. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -2. -4. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 20. 20. 20. 17. 17. 16.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012015 ONE 07/10/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012015 ONE 07/10/15 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ONE CP012015 07/10/15 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 42 47 50 50 50 47 47 46
V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 42 47 50 50 50 47 47 46
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 32 34 36 38 41 43 44 44 45
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 2 4 6 6 6 9 8 7 14 14 22 19 23
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -4 -4 -3 -2 -4 -1 0 -1 -1 -4
SHEAR DIR 237 203 214 259 286 302 282 253 266 247 250 252 266
SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 147 147 147 147 147 145 144 145 146 145 145
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7
TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 10 10
700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 58 59 58 61 64 65 63 62 61 57
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 13 12 11
850 MB ENV VOR 112 106 105 105 102 86 78 69 59 49 20 19 -1
200 MB DIV 1 13 21 21 -2 34 43 71 57 62 0 17 -10
700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 8 6 0 3
LAND (KM) 1706 1778 1854 1936 2023 2172 4176 4064 3962 3867 3704 3475 3262
LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.7 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.0 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.6 17.8 18.8 19.7
LONG(DEG W) 171.6 172.6 173.6 174.8 176.0 178.0 180.2 182.0 183.7 185.6 187.8 189.7 191.5
STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 33 32 35 47 56 53 62 60 59 58 57 60 53
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 23. 25. 27. 29. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -2. -4. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 20. 20. 20. 17. 17. 16.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012015 ONE 07/10/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012015 ONE 07/10/15 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: CPAC: ONE-C - Tropical Depression
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012015
1100 AM HST FRI JUL 10 2015
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ONE-C IS TRYING TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A BANDING FEATURE BECOMING MORE EVIDENT.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 1.5 FROM JTWC
AND SAB AND 2.0 FROM PHFO. WITH ONLY A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN ITS
APPEARANCE...WE WILL MAINTAIN ONE-C AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME.
THE INITIAL SYSTEM MOTION IS 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED FAR TO ITS NORTH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED. THIS FOLLOWS
ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE FORECAST
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT BEYOND 72 HOURS
FOLLOWING CLOSELY WITH TVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...AS RIDGING REMAINS
ESTABLISHED TO ITS NORTH.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO ANTICIPATE A SLOW BUT STEADY
STRENGTHENING THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OFF THROUGH
120 HOURS. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH IVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH
IS ALSO CLOSE TO SHIPS GUIDANCE. SHIPS DOES INDICATE SOME SLIGHT
WEAKENING AROUND DAY 5 DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 28C WILL REMAIN ALONG ITS ENTIRE
FORECAST TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 11.7N 172.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 11.9N 173.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 12.4N 175.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 13.0N 177.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 13.8N 179.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 15.5N 176.1E 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 17.2N 172.0E 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 18.8N 168.1E 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BURKE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012015
1100 AM HST FRI JUL 10 2015
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ONE-C IS TRYING TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A BANDING FEATURE BECOMING MORE EVIDENT.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 1.5 FROM JTWC
AND SAB AND 2.0 FROM PHFO. WITH ONLY A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN ITS
APPEARANCE...WE WILL MAINTAIN ONE-C AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME.
THE INITIAL SYSTEM MOTION IS 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED FAR TO ITS NORTH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED. THIS FOLLOWS
ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE FORECAST
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT BEYOND 72 HOURS
FOLLOWING CLOSELY WITH TVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...AS RIDGING REMAINS
ESTABLISHED TO ITS NORTH.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO ANTICIPATE A SLOW BUT STEADY
STRENGTHENING THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OFF THROUGH
120 HOURS. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH IVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH
IS ALSO CLOSE TO SHIPS GUIDANCE. SHIPS DOES INDICATE SOME SLIGHT
WEAKENING AROUND DAY 5 DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 28C WILL REMAIN ALONG ITS ENTIRE
FORECAST TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 11.7N 172.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 11.9N 173.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 12.4N 175.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 13.0N 177.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 13.8N 179.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 15.5N 176.1E 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 17.2N 172.0E 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 18.8N 168.1E 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BURKE
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Yellow Evan
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----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUL 2015 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 11:22:58 N Lon : 171:43:43 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1006.1mb/ 41.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.7 2.7
Center Temp : -41.0C Cloud Region Temp : -52.0C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.62 ARC in LT GRAY
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Date : 10 JUL 2015 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 11:22:58 N Lon : 171:43:43 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1006.1mb/ 41.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.7 2.7
Center Temp : -41.0C Cloud Region Temp : -52.0C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.62 ARC in LT GRAY
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Oh CPHC
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ONE CP012015 07/11/15 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 40 46 51 54 53 50 48 49 49
V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 40 46 51 54 53 50 48 49 49
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 35 38 42 46 50 53 54 56 59
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 4 5 4 4 8 8 9 6 13 18 12 16 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -2 0 -1 -1 -5 -4 -6
SHEAR DIR 187 195 225 263 306 305 326 242 261 268 277 265 263
SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2
POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 147 147 147 147 146 146 147 147 146 146
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10
700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 59 57 60 63 66 65 63 66 63 61
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 10 9 8 7
850 MB ENV VOR 111 107 105 103 97 92 83 70 57 37 32 26 8
200 MB DIV 12 18 22 0 3 44 57 53 31 3 7 6 5
700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 4 6 3 2 0 2
LAND (KM) 1800 1864 1930 2006 2087 2252 4092 3964 3841 3729 3616 3402 3198
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.1 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.3 18.1 18.9
LONG(DEG W) 172.6 173.6 174.5 175.6 176.7 178.9 181.1 183.1 185.1 187.1 189.3 191.2 193.0
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 34 35 43 52 55 55 63 60 61 60 62 64 63
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 23. 26. 27. 29. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 16. 21. 24. 23. 20. 18. 19. 19.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012015 ONE 07/11/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ONE CP012015 07/11/15 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 40 46 51 54 53 50 48 49 49
V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 40 46 51 54 53 50 48 49 49
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 35 38 42 46 50 53 54 56 59
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 4 5 4 4 8 8 9 6 13 18 12 16 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -2 0 -1 -1 -5 -4 -6
SHEAR DIR 187 195 225 263 306 305 326 242 261 268 277 265 263
SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2
POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 147 147 147 147 146 146 147 147 146 146
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10
700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 59 57 60 63 66 65 63 66 63 61
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 10 9 8 7
850 MB ENV VOR 111 107 105 103 97 92 83 70 57 37 32 26 8
200 MB DIV 12 18 22 0 3 44 57 53 31 3 7 6 5
700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 4 6 3 2 0 2
LAND (KM) 1800 1864 1930 2006 2087 2252 4092 3964 3841 3729 3616 3402 3198
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.1 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.3 18.1 18.9
LONG(DEG W) 172.6 173.6 174.5 175.6 176.7 178.9 181.1 183.1 185.1 187.1 189.3 191.2 193.0
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 34 35 43 52 55 55 63 60 61 60 62 64 63
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 23. 26. 27. 29. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 16. 21. 24. 23. 20. 18. 19. 19.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012015 ONE 07/11/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
CP, 01, 2015071100, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1726W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 210, 100, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, HALOLA, M,
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HALOLA CP012015 07/11/15 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 44 47 52 57 59 57 54 52 52 50
V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 44 47 52 57 59 57 54 52 52 50
V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 43 46 50 54 59 62 64 64 65 66
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 4 5 4 4 8 8 9 6 13 18 12 16 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -2 0 -1 -1 -5 -4 -6
SHEAR DIR 187 195 225 263 306 305 326 242 261 268 277 265 263
SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2
POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 147 147 147 147 146 146 147 147 146 146
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10
700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 59 57 60 63 66 65 63 66 63 61
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 10 9 8 7
850 MB ENV VOR 111 107 105 103 97 92 83 70 57 37 32 26 8
200 MB DIV 12 18 22 0 3 44 57 53 31 3 7 6 5
700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 4 6 3 2 0 2
LAND (KM) 1800 1864 1930 2006 2087 2252 4092 3964 3841 3729 3616 3402 3198
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.1 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.3 18.1 18.9
LONG(DEG W) 172.6 173.6 174.5 175.6 176.7 178.9 181.1 183.1 185.1 187.1 189.3 191.2 193.0
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 34 35 43 52 55 55 63 60 61 60 62 64 63
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 12. 17. 22. 24. 22. 19. 17. 17. 15.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012015 HALOLA 07/11/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 22% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HALOLA CP012015 07/11/15 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 44 47 52 57 59 57 54 52 52 50
V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 44 47 52 57 59 57 54 52 52 50
V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 43 46 50 54 59 62 64 64 65 66
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 4 5 4 4 8 8 9 6 13 18 12 16 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -2 0 -1 -1 -5 -4 -6
SHEAR DIR 187 195 225 263 306 305 326 242 261 268 277 265 263
SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2
POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 147 147 147 147 146 146 147 147 146 146
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10
700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 59 57 60 63 66 65 63 66 63 61
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 10 9 8 7
850 MB ENV VOR 111 107 105 103 97 92 83 70 57 37 32 26 8
200 MB DIV 12 18 22 0 3 44 57 53 31 3 7 6 5
700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 4 6 3 2 0 2
LAND (KM) 1800 1864 1930 2006 2087 2252 4092 3964 3841 3729 3616 3402 3198
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.1 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.3 18.1 18.9
LONG(DEG W) 172.6 173.6 174.5 175.6 176.7 178.9 181.1 183.1 185.1 187.1 189.3 191.2 193.0
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 34 35 43 52 55 55 63 60 61 60 62 64 63
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 12. 17. 22. 24. 22. 19. 17. 17. 15.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012015 HALOLA 07/11/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 22% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
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cycloneye
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Re: CPAC: ONE-C - Tropical Depression
TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012015
500 PM HST FRI JUL 10 2015
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0 FROM
JTWC AND 2.5 FROM PHFO AND SAB. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ONE-C HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
THE INITIAL SYSTEM MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED FAR TO ITS NORTH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A BIT MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THEREAFTER WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK AS WELL AS WITH TVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...AS RIDGING
REMAINS ESTABLISHED TO ITS NORTH.
SHEAR VALUES ARE PRESENTLY RATHER LOW OVER THE SYSTEM WITH SST
VALUES ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 28C. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES
TO ANTICIPATE SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS
BEFORE LEVELING OFF THROUGH 120 HOURS. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH
IVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO SHIPS GUIDANCE
THROUGH 72 HOURS. SHIPS DOES INDICATE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING ON DAYS
4 AND 5 DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF AROUND 28C WILL REMAIN ALONG THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 11.5N 173.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 11.7N 174.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 12.2N 176.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 13.0N 178.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 13.8N 178.9E 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 15.6N 174.4E 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 17.3N 169.9E 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 18.6N 165.4E 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BURKE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012015
500 PM HST FRI JUL 10 2015
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0 FROM
JTWC AND 2.5 FROM PHFO AND SAB. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ONE-C HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
THE INITIAL SYSTEM MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED FAR TO ITS NORTH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A BIT MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THEREAFTER WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK AS WELL AS WITH TVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...AS RIDGING
REMAINS ESTABLISHED TO ITS NORTH.
SHEAR VALUES ARE PRESENTLY RATHER LOW OVER THE SYSTEM WITH SST
VALUES ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 28C. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES
TO ANTICIPATE SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS
BEFORE LEVELING OFF THROUGH 120 HOURS. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH
IVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO SHIPS GUIDANCE
THROUGH 72 HOURS. SHIPS DOES INDICATE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING ON DAYS
4 AND 5 DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF AROUND 28C WILL REMAIN ALONG THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 11.5N 173.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 11.7N 174.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 12.2N 176.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 13.0N 178.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 13.8N 178.9E 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 15.6N 174.4E 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 17.3N 169.9E 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 18.6N 165.4E 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BURKE
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Yellow Evan
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----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2015 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 11:28:15 N Lon : 172:55:59 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1003.8mb/ 45.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.3 3.9
Center Temp : -71.2C Cloud Region Temp : -70.1C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Date : 11 JUL 2015 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 11:28:15 N Lon : 172:55:59 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1003.8mb/ 45.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.3 3.9
Center Temp : -71.2C Cloud Region Temp : -70.1C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
I'd go 40 but
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HALOLA CP012015 07/11/15 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 51 61 68 72 71 68 68 65 64
V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 51 61 68 72 71 68 68 65 64
V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 42 46 49 57 65 75 82 84 83 82 83
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 2 2 3 7 6 8 3 5 11 15 8 12 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 0 -2 -1 -4 0
SHEAR DIR 170 317 311 333 336 334 50 280 273 279 268 291 262
SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5
POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 149 149 148 148 147 146 147 147 147 148 150
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10
700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 58 59 62 65 66 64 64 63 60 61
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 14 13 13 13 12 12 10 10
850 MB ENV VOR 107 107 110 106 101 102 92 81 65 54 51 27 6
200 MB DIV 20 22 2 6 27 37 59 42 28 5 13 -19 -18
700-850 TADV 1 1 0 1 1 -1 0 3 1 0 0 -3 -2
LAND (KM) 1938 2013 2090 2157 2227 4112 3938 3789 3670 3559 3422 3195 2970
LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.9 12.2 13.1 13.8 14.7 15.7 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.6
LONG(DEG W) 174.1 175.1 176.1 177.1 178.1 180.4 182.7 185.0 187.2 189.4 191.7 194.0 196.2
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 12 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 39 45 47 48 52 67 64 66 65 66 67 71 75
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -6. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 26. 33. 38. 36. 33. 33. 30. 29.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012015 HALOLA 07/11/15 06 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 61% is 4.7 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 45% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 28% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HALOLA CP012015 07/11/15 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 51 61 68 72 71 68 68 65 64
V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 51 61 68 72 71 68 68 65 64
V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 42 46 49 57 65 75 82 84 83 82 83
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 2 2 3 7 6 8 3 5 11 15 8 12 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 0 -2 -1 -4 0
SHEAR DIR 170 317 311 333 336 334 50 280 273 279 268 291 262
SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5
POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 149 149 148 148 147 146 147 147 147 148 150
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10
700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 58 59 62 65 66 64 64 63 60 61
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 14 13 13 13 12 12 10 10
850 MB ENV VOR 107 107 110 106 101 102 92 81 65 54 51 27 6
200 MB DIV 20 22 2 6 27 37 59 42 28 5 13 -19 -18
700-850 TADV 1 1 0 1 1 -1 0 3 1 0 0 -3 -2
LAND (KM) 1938 2013 2090 2157 2227 4112 3938 3789 3670 3559 3422 3195 2970
LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.9 12.2 13.1 13.8 14.7 15.7 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.6
LONG(DEG W) 174.1 175.1 176.1 177.1 178.1 180.4 182.7 185.0 187.2 189.4 191.7 194.0 196.2
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 12 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 39 45 47 48 52 67 64 66 65 66 67 71 75
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -6. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 26. 33. 38. 36. 33. 33. 30. 29.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012015 HALOLA 07/11/15 06 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 61% is 4.7 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 45% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 28% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
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cycloneye
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Re: CPAC: HALOLA - Tropical Storm
TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012015
1100 PM HST FRI JUL 10 2015
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS TROPICAL STORM HALOLA HAS ABOUT THE SAME
OVERALL ORGANIZATION AS IT DID SIX HOURS AGO. THE LLCC LIKELY LIES
JUST BENEATH THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH MID-LEVEL
ROTATION WITHIN THIS DEEP CONVECTION SLIPPING JUST SOUTH OF 11N. A
LATE AFTERNOON RAPIDSCAT PASS STRONGLY HINTS THAT THE LLCC REMAINS
NORTH OF 11N...AT ABOUT 11.2N...BUT THE OVERALL IMPRESSION IS THAT
THIS SYSTEM HAS LOST A BIT OF LATITUDE SINCE THE LAST FORECAST
CYCLE. THE TAU 3 MOTION IS SET AT 270/11 KT...BUT INITIAL MOTION IS
MORE LIKE 265/11 KT. LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2.0 FROM JTWC TO 3.0 FROM PHFO. SAB SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE AT 2.5. THE RAPIDSCAT PASS SHOWED A BROAD BELT OF 35 KT
WINDS ALONG THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FLANKS OF THE LLCC. THIS...AND
THE SIMILAR SATELLITE PRESENTATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO...LEAD US TO
KEEP HALOLA INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT.
WE EXPECT HALOLA WILL STOP LOSING LATITUDE TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES
MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...THEN GRADUALLY TAKES A MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS CLOSELY ALIGNS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK AS WELL AS WITH TVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. MINOR TRACK
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE LEFT THROUGH 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INITIAL LATITUDE LOSS...THEN FROM 36 THROUGH 120 HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHT CONSENSUS DRIFT TO THE LEFT.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT WE
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN HALOLA BEYOND THAT...WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW
FORECAST TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH TO THE WEST OF THE DATELINE AT
TAU 72. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT SHOWN IN
SHIPS AND IN IVCN CONSENSUS INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
INTERESTS ON WAKE ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL
STORM HALOLA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 11.2N 174.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 11.4N 176.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 12.1N 178.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 13.0N 179.5E 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 13.9N 177.3E 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 15.5N 172.7E 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 17.0N 168.3E 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 18.4N 163.7E 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012015
1100 PM HST FRI JUL 10 2015
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS TROPICAL STORM HALOLA HAS ABOUT THE SAME
OVERALL ORGANIZATION AS IT DID SIX HOURS AGO. THE LLCC LIKELY LIES
JUST BENEATH THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH MID-LEVEL
ROTATION WITHIN THIS DEEP CONVECTION SLIPPING JUST SOUTH OF 11N. A
LATE AFTERNOON RAPIDSCAT PASS STRONGLY HINTS THAT THE LLCC REMAINS
NORTH OF 11N...AT ABOUT 11.2N...BUT THE OVERALL IMPRESSION IS THAT
THIS SYSTEM HAS LOST A BIT OF LATITUDE SINCE THE LAST FORECAST
CYCLE. THE TAU 3 MOTION IS SET AT 270/11 KT...BUT INITIAL MOTION IS
MORE LIKE 265/11 KT. LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2.0 FROM JTWC TO 3.0 FROM PHFO. SAB SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE AT 2.5. THE RAPIDSCAT PASS SHOWED A BROAD BELT OF 35 KT
WINDS ALONG THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FLANKS OF THE LLCC. THIS...AND
THE SIMILAR SATELLITE PRESENTATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO...LEAD US TO
KEEP HALOLA INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT.
WE EXPECT HALOLA WILL STOP LOSING LATITUDE TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES
MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...THEN GRADUALLY TAKES A MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS CLOSELY ALIGNS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK AS WELL AS WITH TVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. MINOR TRACK
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE LEFT THROUGH 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INITIAL LATITUDE LOSS...THEN FROM 36 THROUGH 120 HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHT CONSENSUS DRIFT TO THE LEFT.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT WE
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN HALOLA BEYOND THAT...WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW
FORECAST TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH TO THE WEST OF THE DATELINE AT
TAU 72. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT SHOWN IN
SHIPS AND IN IVCN CONSENSUS INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
INTERESTS ON WAKE ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL
STORM HALOLA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 11.2N 174.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 11.4N 176.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 12.1N 178.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 13.0N 179.5E 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 13.9N 177.3E 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 15.5N 172.7E 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 17.0N 168.3E 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 18.4N 163.7E 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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Yellow Evan
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* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HALOLA CP012015 07/11/15 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 50 54 61 66 67 64 62 60 59 57
V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 50 54 61 66 67 64 62 60 59 57
V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 49 52 57 63 68 72 73 74 75 78
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 2 4 5 5 9 14 4 9 15 7 12 10 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 0 -3 -2 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 -1
SHEAR DIR 327 325 340 316 322 346 301 280 268 285 259 268 284
SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6
POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 148 147 146 146 147 147 148 149 151
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7
TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 10
700-500 MB RH 57 57 58 58 62 63 65 65 66 68 65 65 67
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 14 13 13 12 11 9 8 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 105 106 100 94 97 97 89 78 59 52 39 16 10
200 MB DIV 25 16 6 15 31 50 48 43 28 29 15 -13 -31
700-850 TADV 1 1 2 2 0 -2 5 4 0 2 0 1 -4
LAND (KM) 2014 2084 2157 2233 2313 4026 3879 3729 3578 3467 3343 3109 2870
LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 11.7 12.1 12.5 13.4 14.3 15.1 15.8 16.6 17.4 18.1 18.7
LONG(DEG W) 175.0 176.0 177.0 178.1 179.2 181.5 183.7 186.0 188.4 190.6 192.6 194.9 197.4
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 12
HEAT CONTENT 42 44 43 47 59 66 63 66 67 67 68 75 78
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -8. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 26. 27. 24. 22. 20. 19. 17.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012015 HALOLA 07/11/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HALOLA CP012015 07/11/15 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 50 54 61 66 67 64 62 60 59 57
V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 50 54 61 66 67 64 62 60 59 57
V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 49 52 57 63 68 72 73 74 75 78
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 2 4 5 5 9 14 4 9 15 7 12 10 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 0 -3 -2 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 -1
SHEAR DIR 327 325 340 316 322 346 301 280 268 285 259 268 284
SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6
POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 148 147 146 146 147 147 148 149 151
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7
TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 10
700-500 MB RH 57 57 58 58 62 63 65 65 66 68 65 65 67
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 14 13 13 12 11 9 8 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 105 106 100 94 97 97 89 78 59 52 39 16 10
200 MB DIV 25 16 6 15 31 50 48 43 28 29 15 -13 -31
700-850 TADV 1 1 2 2 0 -2 5 4 0 2 0 1 -4
LAND (KM) 2014 2084 2157 2233 2313 4026 3879 3729 3578 3467 3343 3109 2870
LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 11.7 12.1 12.5 13.4 14.3 15.1 15.8 16.6 17.4 18.1 18.7
LONG(DEG W) 175.0 176.0 177.0 178.1 179.2 181.5 183.7 186.0 188.4 190.6 192.6 194.9 197.4
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 12
HEAT CONTENT 42 44 43 47 59 66 63 66 67 67 68 75 78
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -8. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 26. 27. 24. 22. 20. 19. 17.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012015 HALOLA 07/11/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: CPAC: HALOLA - Tropical Storm
TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012015
500 AM HST SAT JUL 11 2015
IT IS TEMPTING TO REANALYZE AND RELOCATE TROPICAL STORM HALOLA SOUTH
OF 11N AND WEST OF 175W BY FOLLOWING THE CIRCULATION EXHIBITED BY
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...OBSERVATION OF WARMER CLOUD SWIRLS DUE NORTH OF THE CDO IN
ANIMATION...AND ADMITTEDLY AGING 0703 UTC SSMI DATA...SUPPORTS THE
NOTION THAT THE LLCC CONTINUES TO LIE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. IT THEREFORE FOLLOWS THAT THE ROTATION
WITHIN THIS CONVECTION IS AT MID-LEVEL AND DISPLACED FROM THE LLCC
BY ABOUT 30 NM. SUNRISE MAY REVEAL SOMETHING COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT...BUT WE FEEL THE INITIAL 1200 UTC POSITION FOR THIS ROUND
SHOULD BE 11.2N 175.0W...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 270/10 KT. HALOLA
EXHIBITS MORE BANDING FEATURES NOW...AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2.5 FROM SAB AND JTWC TO 3.0 FROM
PHFO. GIVEN THE BETTER OVERALL STRUCTURE VERSUS LAST
EVENING...HALOLA INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.
HALOLA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD THIS MORNING ALONG THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THEN GRADUALLY TAKE A MORE
WEST NORTHWESTERLY TRACK LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS
A WEAKNESS IN THIS RIDGE. THIS CLOSELY ALIGNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK AS WELL AS WITH TVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. TVCN HAS
SERVED US QUITE WELL SO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM. AGAIN...MINOR CHANGES
WERE MADE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...MOSTLY AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...AS
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT FROM RUN TO RUN.
WE CONTINUE TO CAP HALOLA INTENSITY AT 70 KT AT 96 HOURS...BUT
STRENGTHEN THIS SYSTEM A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN BEFORE THROUGH 72
HOURS. HALOLA IS NOW FORECAST TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH WEST OF THE
DATELINE AT 48 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH IVCN CONSENSUS
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH THE SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 120 HOURS
CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS TREND AT THAT TIME.
INTERESTS ON WAKE ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL
STORM HALOLA. WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES AT THIS LOCATION CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WITHIN ALL WIND CATEGORIES BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK TAKES HALOLA SOUTH OF WAKE ISLAND...BUT THIS MAY
CHANGE WITH EACH PACKAGE AS THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AND PASSES INTO
THE WESTERN PACIFIC BASIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 11.2N 175.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 11.5N 177.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 12.2N 179.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 13.1N 178.5E 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 14.1N 176.2E 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 15.9N 171.7E 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 17.5N 167.5E 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 19.2N 162.9E 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012015
500 AM HST SAT JUL 11 2015
IT IS TEMPTING TO REANALYZE AND RELOCATE TROPICAL STORM HALOLA SOUTH
OF 11N AND WEST OF 175W BY FOLLOWING THE CIRCULATION EXHIBITED BY
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...OBSERVATION OF WARMER CLOUD SWIRLS DUE NORTH OF THE CDO IN
ANIMATION...AND ADMITTEDLY AGING 0703 UTC SSMI DATA...SUPPORTS THE
NOTION THAT THE LLCC CONTINUES TO LIE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. IT THEREFORE FOLLOWS THAT THE ROTATION
WITHIN THIS CONVECTION IS AT MID-LEVEL AND DISPLACED FROM THE LLCC
BY ABOUT 30 NM. SUNRISE MAY REVEAL SOMETHING COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT...BUT WE FEEL THE INITIAL 1200 UTC POSITION FOR THIS ROUND
SHOULD BE 11.2N 175.0W...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 270/10 KT. HALOLA
EXHIBITS MORE BANDING FEATURES NOW...AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2.5 FROM SAB AND JTWC TO 3.0 FROM
PHFO. GIVEN THE BETTER OVERALL STRUCTURE VERSUS LAST
EVENING...HALOLA INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.
HALOLA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD THIS MORNING ALONG THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THEN GRADUALLY TAKE A MORE
WEST NORTHWESTERLY TRACK LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS
A WEAKNESS IN THIS RIDGE. THIS CLOSELY ALIGNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK AS WELL AS WITH TVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. TVCN HAS
SERVED US QUITE WELL SO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM. AGAIN...MINOR CHANGES
WERE MADE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...MOSTLY AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...AS
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT FROM RUN TO RUN.
WE CONTINUE TO CAP HALOLA INTENSITY AT 70 KT AT 96 HOURS...BUT
STRENGTHEN THIS SYSTEM A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN BEFORE THROUGH 72
HOURS. HALOLA IS NOW FORECAST TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH WEST OF THE
DATELINE AT 48 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH IVCN CONSENSUS
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH THE SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 120 HOURS
CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS TREND AT THAT TIME.
INTERESTS ON WAKE ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL
STORM HALOLA. WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES AT THIS LOCATION CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WITHIN ALL WIND CATEGORIES BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK TAKES HALOLA SOUTH OF WAKE ISLAND...BUT THIS MAY
CHANGE WITH EACH PACKAGE AS THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AND PASSES INTO
THE WESTERN PACIFIC BASIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 11.2N 175.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 11.5N 177.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 12.2N 179.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 13.1N 178.5E 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 14.1N 176.2E 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 15.9N 171.7E 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 17.5N 167.5E 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 19.2N 162.9E 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
No idea what those are supposed to mean, so I just skip over them. With so many (sometimes 5 or 6) posted on each page, it makes it easy to skip whole pages sometimes.
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: Re:
WeatherGuesser wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
No idea what those are supposed to mean, so I just skip over them. With so many (sometimes 5 or 6) posted on each page, it makes it easy to skip whole pages sometimes.
It's the SHIPS and LGEM model runs and their outputs.
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