EPAC: GUILLERMO - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS makes this a Cat 2 but OT.

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 290025
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91E)

B. 29/0000Z

C. 6.3N

D. 119.6W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT OF 1.0 IS BASED ON GT 0.2 BANDING. MET AND PT ARE
1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[Yellow Evan]

If these conditions hold true, major??

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912015 07/29/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 40 46 55 63 69 73 73 74 73 71
V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 40 46 55 63 69 73 73 74 73 71
V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 35 40 49 58 67 73 77 77 72 65
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 3 4 8 8 5 7 9 8 8 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -6 -6 -4 -2 -1 0 0 3 5 2 1
SHEAR DIR 48 47 53 46 19 340 341 347 297 306 276 295 267
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.2 28.7 27.8 27.2 26.8
POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 152 152 152 156 160 159 154 144 137 133
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.6 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 6 6
700-500 MB RH 81 82 83 82 80 77 72 73 73 77 78 77 75
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 15 17 18 20 21 22
850 MB ENV VOR 7 12 16 21 23 14 7 5 1 -1 8 9 29
200 MB DIV 93 101 97 95 107 103 111 101 82 65 74 74 66
700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 0 -2 -1 0 3 1 2 3 7
LAND (KM) 2031 2071 2115 2158 2205 2303 2395 2530 2394 2031 1677 1348 1100
LAT (DEG N) 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.6 9.5 10.5 11.8 13.0 14.5 16.0 17.4
LONG(DEG W) 119.7 120.7 121.6 122.6 123.6 125.8 128.2 130.9 133.9 137.0 139.9 142.6 144.6
STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 12 13 15 16 16 15 13 12
HEAT CONTENT 15 16 16 25 39 39 24 21 30 32 10 9 6

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -1. -3. -4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 12. 14. 18. 19. 19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 15. 21. 30. 38. 44. 48. 48. 49. 48. 46.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 07/29/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.5 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Kingarabian]

Only 8kts of shear near Hawaii?

I guess the prohibiting factors will be marginal SST's and dry air.



Maybe 08E will help increase the moisture in 91E's track.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF show it becoming a robust hurricane one way or another. Just differ in the track.

[Yellow Evan]

SST's aren't an issue, and dry air won't be once this has a core. Unless there's more shear than expected (SHIPS doesn't bring it near Hawaii in 5 days FTR, just to around 145W), I don't see why this doesn't become a major hurricane.

Question will be, where does it re-curve?

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS so far

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS backing off from a sharp recurve and closer to the islands from the north. Almost in line with Euro.

[Yellow Evan]

00z GFS backing off from a sharp recurve and closer to the islands from the north. Almost in line with Euro.

Yea. GFS/ECMWF are in okay agreement for being so far out.

[Yellow Evan]

A low-latitude area of low pressure centered about 1300 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
producing a large area of cloudiness and showers. This system is
gradually becoming better organized and conditions are favorable
for a tropical depression to form later this week while it moves
toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Kingarabian]

00z ECMWF same initial track and initial intensity, just kills it abruptly before reaching the big island thus drifting it westward.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS same thing as 0z but weaker

[Alyono]

perhaps a repeat of 8E based upon the model guidance

[Yellow Evan]

Track a little too far north.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912015 07/29/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 41 46 56 64 70 72 69 66 63 60
V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 41 46 56 64 70 72 69 66 63 60
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 32 35 43 51 57 62 61 56 49 43
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 7 9 8 9 9 5 8 13 12 16 15 26
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -6 -4 -3 2 2 2 3 4 3 2 0
SHEAR DIR 46 42 29 350 341 353 328 300 293 282 293 263 267
SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.2 28.5 27.3 26.7 26.3 25.8
POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 152 152 152 157 160 159 152 139 131 126 120
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.6 -52.5 -53.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5
700-500 MB RH 83 82 82 79 76 71 72 74 77 78 79 78 72
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 14 14 16 17 19 20 21 21 20 20
850 MB ENV VOR 10 19 25 25 13 6 0 -1 -10 -6 -1 20 19
200 MB DIV 111 103 121 125 116 113 90 92 56 65 62 57 51
700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -3 3 9 7 11 16 14 9
LAND (KM) 2154 2195 2240 2280 2314 2387 2492 2392 2028 1694 1428 1273 1193
LAT (DEG N) 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.4 8.7 9.7 10.9 12.3 13.8 15.4 17.1 18.7 20.0
LONG(DEG W) 122.2 123.2 124.1 125.1 126.1 128.3 130.8 133.7 136.7 139.4 141.5 142.7 143.4
STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 13 15 16 16 15 11 9 7
HEAT CONTENT 19 32 43 44 41 23 23 33 32 5 3 3 1

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 33. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 14. 14. 15. 14. 13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 21. 31. 39. 45. 47. 44. 41. 38. 35.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 07/29/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 56% is 4.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Yellow Evan]

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX OF A DEVELOPING
SYSTEM NEAR 14.3N 142.4W AT 02/0600Z.
$$

[wxman57]

It looks much more impressive than TD Eight-E to its northwest. Probably at least a TD already. No recent ASCAT pass to confirm TS strength. GFS & Euro diverge on track - Euro more westward, passing well south of Hawaii as a weakening TS/TD. GFS recurves east of Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

It looks much more impressive than TD Eight-E to its northwest. Probably at least a TD already. No recent ASCAT pass to confirm TS strength. GFS & Euro diverge on track - Euro more westward, passing well south of Hawaii as a weakening TS/TD. GFS recurves east of Hawaii.

I agree it looks time to pull the trigger. ASCAT and RapidScat have been missing this and 8E lately.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS recurve more east. In line with BANM.

[cycloneye]

Trigger being pulled later this afternoon?

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a low pressure system centered about 1350 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and if these trends continue, a tropical depression could form later
today or tonight while the system moves west-northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Trigger being pulled later this afternoon?

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a low pressure system centered about 1350 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and if these trends continue, a tropical depression could form later
today or tonight while the system moves west-northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Very likely, but we have an approaching ASCAt pass.