WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Much stronger on the latest 18Z run by GFS, bottoms it out at 897 mb and track shifted big time north passing it over the northern part of the Northern Marianas and eventually takes it to Japan...

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 130018
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1000 AM CHST THU AUG 13 2015

PMZ172-173-174-181-140000-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-MAJURO-
1000 AM CHST THU AUG 13 2015

...DISTURBED WEATHER OVER MICRONESIA...

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A LARGE AREA OVER
CHUUK...POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND MAJURO. A MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES
EASTWARD ALONG 10N-12N FROM 130E TO JUST NORTH OF MAJURO...PASSING
THROUGH CIRCULATIONS CENTERED NORTHEAST OF CHUUK NEAR 11N156E AND
NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN NEAR 12N166E.

COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH CIRCULATIONS AS
THEY HEAD TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AT CHUUK AND POHNPEI...BUT HAVE
BEGUN TO TAPER OFF AT KOSRAE AND MAJURO. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY AT CHUUK AND POHNPEI.

WHILE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME AT KOSRAE AND MAJURO...SOUTHWEST TO
WEST MONSOON WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT WILL PERSIST AT CHUUK AND
POHNPEI THROUGH TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. SEA CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT FROM CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE TO THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS FOR THE SHORT TERM. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE ALSO
IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH AND WEST FACING REEFS OF THESE LOCATIONS. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BEGINNING TONIGHT AT MAJURO...AND THEN
FARTHER WESTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.

RESIDENTS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AND KOSRAE...POHNPEI AND CHUUK
STATES SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS...
AND INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.

$$

W. AYDLETT

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 159.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 156.0E, APPROXIMATELY 358 NM NORTHEAST OF
CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS BEGINNING TO CONVERGE
FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION.UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VWS AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYTEM AFTER 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. IN VIEW OF THE
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

Developing anticyclone over the center...

[euro6208]

Models doing a fujiwhara between Goni and Atsani as Cat 5's...

That will be breathtaking to see...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 130732
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
530 PM CHST THU AUG 13 2015

GUZ001>004-140100-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
530 PM CHST THU AUG 13 2015

...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT THE MARIANAS THIS WEEKEND...

AT 400 PM THURSDAY AFTERNOON A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS ABOUT 320
MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK...ABOUT 535 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
SAIPAN AND ABOUT 565 MILES EAST OF GUAM. IT WAS CENTERED NEAR 12
DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 153 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...AND DRIFTING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP
AS IT CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM IS STILL DEVELOPING...THERE IS
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL DATA TO GIVE DETAILED INFORMATION ON
ITS FUTURE TRACK OR INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES THE MARIANAS. SOME
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION COULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS SOMETIME BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY.

THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE CIRCULATION
APPROACHES AND PASSES THE REGION.

A SECOND CIRCULATION IS FOUND FARTHER EAST...TO THE NORTHWEST OF
KWAJALEIN NEAR 13N166E. THIS CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AS IT SLOWLY DEVELOPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE MARIANAS BUT COULD AFFECT
THE FUTURE PATH OF THE CIRCULATION NEAR CHUUK THIS WEEKEND.

STAY INFORMED ON THE PROGRESS OF THESE CIRCULATIONS BY FOLLOWING THE
LATEST STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ON GUAM. THESE ARE POSTED ON THE WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT
http://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

W. AYDLETT

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
156.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 153.1E, APPROXIMATELY 506 NM EAST
OF GUAM. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH
FORMATIVE BANDS OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A
130324Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED COVNECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED
ON THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

EERIE

Oct 13 1997



TODAY

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 131730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
275 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9N 153.8E TO 14.4N 147.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 131700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.8N 151.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3N
152.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 151.8E, APPROXIMATELY 415NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, ANIMATED EIR DEPICTS FORMATIVE
BANDS FEEDING INTO A LLCC THAT IS BECOMING MORE DEFINED. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND GOOD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. IN VIEW OF THE STEADY CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
141730Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ25 KNES 131505
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)

B. 13/1432Z

C. 11.4N

D. 151.3E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE.
LLC IS STILL BROAD AND DISORGANIZED. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

[euro6208]

Very wet this early morning as a rain band is moving through...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

97W INVEST 150813 1800 12.2N 150.7E WPAC 20 1007

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to TD.

NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 11.8N 150.8E POOR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 13.4N 150.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Yellow Evan]

Agree with that upgrade. Looks a little ahead of 98W IMO but both are there.

[1900hurricane]

The NRL page has 97W now listed as 16W, implying JTWC is preparing to classify this as a tropical depression.

[cycloneye]

Intensifying fast.

WTPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131721Z AUG 15//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 12.3N 150.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 150.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 13.1N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.8N 149.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.4N 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.1N 148.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.0N 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.2N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.6N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 150.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 327 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z,
142100Z AND 150300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 131721Z AUG 15 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 131730).//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 327
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BETTER DEFINED CLOUD LINES
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
OBSCURED BY DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 132119Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH CURVED CONVECTION ALONG
THE PERIPHERIES OF THE BROADER CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE LLCC IN THE ABOVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES AND SUPPORTED BY THE
IMPROVED DEFINITION IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT DIVERGENT OUTFLOW
WITH AN EQUATORWARD BIAS. HOWEVER, A TUTT CELL, APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY, IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND
DISRUPTING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
ABOVE 28 CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TD 16W IS TRACKING
SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 16W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN AS A BUILDING NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST COMPLICATES THE STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND DRIVES THE SYSTEM NORTH. AS THE SYSTEM GAINS
LATITUDE, TOWARDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL, EXPECT MODEST
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BEYOND TAU
36, THE STR TO THE NORTH WILL ASSUME STEERING ONCE AGAIN, TURNING
THE CYCLONE TO THE WEST. CONCURRENTLY, THE TUTT CELL WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM FROM TD 16W, PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE OPTIMAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION
(RI) DUE TO STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS WITH HIGH SSTS
AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 16W WILL ACCELERATE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE DOMINANT STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN OPTIMAL TO CONTINUE RI THROUGH TAU 96. BEYOND TAU 96, AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL ONCE AGAIN REDUCE
THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INCREASE THE VWS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
REDUCE THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TRACK PHILOSOPHY, HOWEVER, THERE IS
A LARGE SPREAD IN THE INITIAL 24 HOURS. NAVGEM, COAMPS-TC, AND GFDN
TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD UNDER A STRONGER NER PRIOR TO THE STR
ASSUMING STEERING. GFS AND HWRF INITIALLY TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN IT TO THE WEST. THIS DIFFERENCE CREATES
A LARGE TIMING DISCREPANCY IN THE OVERALL GUIDANCE. DUE TO THIS
TIMING AND TRACK SPREAD, THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK IS LAID JUST INSIDE
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION, WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN