EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical

#201 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat May 30, 2015 5:18 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Visible satellite imagery may show a well-organized hurricane approaching Cat 3 status, but infrared imagery tells an entirely different story. The overall cloud pattern is very ragged for a storm of its intensity as dry air continues to filter in from the northwest. Andres has remained steady if not weakened slightly since this morning.

I don't think it has weakened, but I do agree that it's still coughing out dry air.

Infrared imagery isn't pretty, but AVN shows red, really cold cloud tops trying to circle the eye.

Guess we should wait until we get a decent microwave pass.

Dry air is an issue still yes, but I think it'll be able to mix it out like it's done many times arelady.

#202 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat May 30, 2015 5:18 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAY 2015 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 14:50:04 N Lon : 116:20:50 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 957.6mb/104.6kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -44.5C Cloud Region Temp : -68.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.6 degrees

#203 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat May 30, 2015 5:19 pm

5.6 ADT alone supports 110 knts.

#204 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat May 30, 2015 5:19 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Visible satellite imagery may show a well-organized hurricane approaching Cat 3 status, but infrared imagery tells an entirely different story. The overall cloud pattern is very ragged for a storm of its intensity as dry air continues to filter in from the northwest. Andres has remained steady if not weakened slightly since this morning.

I don't think it has weakened, but I do agree that it's still coughing out dry air.

Infrared imagery isn't pretty, but AVN shows red, really cold cloud tops trying to circle the eye.

Guess we should wait until we get a decent microwave pass.

Dry air is an issue still yes, but I think it'll be able to mix it out like it's done many times arelady.

Plus it's still over warm waters and decreasing shear. I agree with you on Dvorak. More than likely they'll give it a 5.5.

#205 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat May 30, 2015 5:22 pm

And here is the latest microwave pass from AMSR2:

Western eyewall has built back nicely.

Compared to 6 hours ago:

#206 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat May 30, 2015 5:23 pm

Kingarabian wrote:I agree with you on Dvorak. More than likely they'll give it a 5.5.

It's a tricky issue. The banding of black on the Dvorak satellite must be at least 1/2 of a degree in order for it to earn a T5.5 since it is unlikely that we will see an eye adjustment.

Right now, I think by the skin of its teeth warrants a T5.5 ratings.

#207 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat May 30, 2015 5:28 pm

Kingarabian wrote:And here is the latest microwave pass from AMSR2:

http://i.imgur.com/hDyg5jn.jpg

Western eyewall has built back nicely.

Compared to 6 hours ago:

http://i.imgur.com/iGeJU8s.jpg

An indication that it is mixing out dry air.

Latest frame confirms this

#208 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat May 30, 2015 5:55 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAY 2015 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 14:52:10 N Lon : 116:23:51 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 957.6mb/104.6kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -29.1C Cloud Region Temp : -68.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.6 degrees

#209 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat May 30, 2015 5:58 pm

If ADT makes it to 5.7 and Dvorak makes it to T5.5, we could see 105 on an advisory.

#210 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat May 30, 2015 6:14 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAY 2015 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 14:54:16 N Lon : 116:27:02 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 957.6mb/104.6kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -43.4C Cloud Region Temp : -68.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.6 degrees

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #211 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Sat May 30, 2015 6:38 pm

RGB enhancement makes it very easy to detect the dry air being entrained into the storm. Assuming the core remains solid, I wouldn't rule out the potential for a 95-100kt peak. However, it's equally possible that such a large amount of dry air ends up damaging the cyclone over the next several hours.

#212 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat May 30, 2015 6:44 pm

Keep in mind that Andres has survived for the most part several dry air intakes so far.

#213 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat May 30, 2015 6:45 pm

Another western eyewall collapse.

#214 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat May 30, 2015 6:50 pm

As soon as I think we're gonna get a major,eye cools, and looks like a T5.0 to me now, and couls slip down to a T4.5.

#215 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat May 30, 2015 7:07 pm

Agreed it has probably passed its window for a 5.5.

#216 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat May 30, 2015 7:08 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Agreed it has probably passed its window for a 5.5.

For now yea, but it's very close.

#217 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat May 30, 2015 7:12 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAY 2015 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 14:58:28 N Lon : 116:33:49 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 955.4mb/107.2kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -54.3C Cloud Region Temp : -69.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.6 degrees

****************************************************

#218 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat May 30, 2015 7:15 pm

Based on that, I'd be inclined to think we could see 95, but they may through out ADT all together.

#219 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat May 30, 2015 7:18 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Agreed it has probably passed its window for a 5.5.

For now yea, but it's very close.

New frame in. Lots of questions. Is the black band .5 degrees in width at its narrowest the big one though?

#220 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat May 30, 2015 7:20 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Agreed it has probably passed its window for a 5.5.

For now yea, but it's very close.

New frame in. Lots of questions. Is the black band .5 degrees in width at its narrowest the big one though?

Latest frame shows eye warming again, lol.

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