EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

[MGC]

No real need for recon yet until Blanca threatens land. No need to risk the lives of the crew. See no reason Blanca will not obtain cat-5 status. Hopefully all of this kind of action stays at sea in the Pacific.....MGC

[Yellow Evan]

No real need for recon yet until Blanca threatens land. No need to risk the lives of the crew. See no reason Blanca will not obtain cat-5 status. Hopefully all of this kind of action stays at sea in the Pacific.....MGC

It's been 50 years since someone died in Recon. It's not a real risk.

[Yellow Evan]

Also satellite present looks like a 7.0.

[srainhoutx]

No real need for recon yet until Blanca threatens land. No need to risk the lives of the crew. See no reason Blanca will not obtain cat-5 status. Hopefully all of this kind of action stays at sea in the Pacific.....MGC

It's been 50 years since someone died in Recon. It's not a real risk.

Better ask the folks that actually fly these missions. I have a friend that is a pilot reservist with the 53rd that will tell you differently.

[Ntxw]

Water vapor loop

[SouthDadeFish]

No real need for recon yet until Blanca threatens land. No need to risk the lives of the crew. See no reason Blanca will not obtain cat-5 status. Hopefully all of this kind of action stays at sea in the Pacific.....MGC

It's been 50 years since someone died in Recon. It's not a real risk.

This is completely false. There have been many close calls since then. It is always a risk when you fly an airplane into 100+ mph winds. There is minimal room for error. I agree that it is not necessary to risk lives when no land is at risk over the next 2 days.

[talkon]

Cloud tops are warming.

[SouthDadeFish]

The eye continues to warm and Dvorak numbers continue to increase.

[TheStormExpert]

Water vapor loop

Looks like some dry air is creeping into view from the N/NNW. Will this possibly affect it?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'd assess Blanca in the neighborhood of 130 knots. I'd like to see eyewall convection start to cool again before going any higher.

Incredible cyclone.

[JtSmarts]

Don't usually follow the Pacific, but wow, what a nice looking storm! Hopefully she's not a major problem for Baja.

[SouthDadeFish]

GFS shows mid-level dry air approaching from the NW starting tonight:



It will be interesting to see how Blanca deals with this intrusion of dry air.

[Ntxw]

Looks like some dry air is creeping into view from the N/NNW. Will this possibly affect it?

I wouldn't worry about it too much yet. Example would've been Andres, unlike some systems over in the Atlantic, EPAC storms can fight off dry air well. Especially with a good CCKW and ENSO convection below it backing it up. Cooling SST's down the road would be a bigger detriment but that's still a ways off.

[CaneCurious]

My parents live in Los Cabos and the resort was devastated by Odile and is still undergoing reconstruction. They are keeping a very watchful eye on Blanca.

[galaxy401]

Looks like it's slowly moving SE now. When is it forecast to move NW? If it stays stationary for a while, it could cause upwelling in the ocean.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Looks like some dry air is creeping into view from the N/NNW. Will this possibly affect it?

I wouldn't worry about it too much yet. Example would've been Andres, unlike some systems over in the Atlantic, EPAC storms can fight off dry air well. Especially with a good CCKW and ENSO convection below it backing it up. Cooling SST's down the road would be a bigger detriment but that's still a ways off.

Yeah, dry air shouldn't be too much of an issue in the absence of wind shear. As you said, we saw that with Andres which blossomed to 130kt despite a large mass of dry air in its vicinity, and we've seen it with numerous cyclones before then.

[Alyono]

upwelling should be starting now. Has remained stationary for too long

[Yellow Evan]

upwelling should be starting now. Has remained stationary for too long

The warm oceanic heat should minimize upwelling to some extent, right?

[Yellow Evan]

GFS shows mid-level dry air approaching from the NW starting tonight:



It will be interesting to see how Blanca deals with this intrusion of dry air.

It's possible it could already be affecting it.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Both Andres and Blanca have displayed a pattern of convective warming throughout the daylight hours and convective deepening throughout the overnight hours. It's long believed that diurnal cycles don't affect significant tropical cyclones, but I'm not no sure that's the case after watching these two systems.