ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

[NDG]

I agree with the COC being a little further north and east than where the 12z models were initialized.

[cycloneye]

Those Tropical Force winds are well east and NE of the closed LLC. More stronger.

Peak 10-second Wind: 47 kt at 171°

[cycloneye]

Set full of TS force winds.Some are contaminated but the majority are legit.When they upgrade may skip TD status.


AF301 02BBA INVEST HDOB 24 20150615
131900 2533N 09131W 9749 00303 0093 +222 //// 172044 048 039 005 01
131930 2532N 09130W 9753 00298 0094 +218 //// 173049 051 040 006 01
132000 2532N 09128W 9754 00301 //// +217 //// 176048 050 041 003 05
132030 2531N 09127W 9754 00301 0097 +217 //// 175050 054 041 002 01
132100 2531N 09126W 9749 00307 0097 +218 +217 175049 052 041 003 01
132130 2530N 09125W 9750 00306 0098 +220 //// 177049 051 040 003 01
132200 2530N 09123W 9747 00310 0098 +221 +215 181047 051 039 001 01
132230 2529N 09122W 9754 00304 0099 +222 +219 185048 050 038 004 00
132300 2528N 09121W 9751 00308 0102 +219 +219 187047 048 038 007 00
132330 2528N 09119W 9750 00308 0104 +219 +219 185042 047 038 013 00
132400 2527N 09118W 9757 00303 0106 +218 +218 183043 045 043 012 00
132430 2526N 09117W 9754 00305 0105 +216 //// 185043 045 047 012 05
132500 2526N 09115W 9748 00312 0103 +224 //// 181043 045 039 006 05
132530 2525N 09114W 9749 00311 0103 +225 //// 181037 039 034 005 01
132600 2524N 09113W 9753 00308 0101 +231 //// 174041 043 031 002 01
132630 2524N 09111W 9746 00313 0102 +237 +230 174043 045 031 001 00
132700 2523N 09110W 9752 00308 0102 +240 +229 173044 045 034 002 03
132730 2522N 09110W 9747 00314 0102 +240 +230 173042 045 032 003 00
132800 2521N 09109W 9754 00309 0103 +243 +230 172040 041 037 003 00
132830 2520N 09108W 9751 00313 0104 +244 +226 171043 045 037 004 00

[Hurricaneman]

Id go 40kt first advisory

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Extratropical94]

An overview of the mission into 91L so far.

[NDG]

91L is finally moving away from underneath the upper level low/trough and moving into an area of UL divergence (black arrows) & lighter winds aloft. This should make it get better organized and strengthen some before moving onshore tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

Id go 40kt first advisory

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

There it is. Updated 12z Best Track:

91L INVEST 150615 1200 24.5N 93.0W ATL 40 1006

[gatorcane]

I don't see as much shear today over the system. Convection is on the increase near the center. Looks to be organizing to me, should be Bill today.

[NDG]

Recon is heading WNW near the 25th latitude to investigate the possible relocation of the COC further north, is what I take out of it.

[NDG]

Circulation still looks elongated with no well defined COC, per the latest recon pass. IMO.
Maybe a few more hours before we see the LLC.

[tolakram]

15 frame visible, speed up to help show the motion.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-94&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&mapcolor=gray&numframes=15

[BigA]

Recon just found a rather well-defined, though weak wind shift near 25.1 N, 92.8 W (of course some margin of error in a developing system like this).

Great map of winds in Invest 91L: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Definitely looks to be organizing.

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon just found a rather well-defined, though weak wind shift near 25.1 N, 92.8 W (of course some margin of error in a developing system like this).

Great map of winds in Invest 91L: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Definitely looks to be organizing.

Agreed. In the past six hours, this invest has gone from this:



To this:

[tropicwatch]

Don't think I have seen it posted but here is the windsat:

[Alyono]

not sure we will get an upgrade at 10 am. NHC is saying on twitter that the circulation is not well defined

[BigA]

Recon just found a rather well-defined, though weak wind shift near 25.1 N, 92.8 W (of course some margin of error in a developing system like this).

Great map of winds in Invest 91L: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Definitely looks to be organizing.

[Hammy]

Recon just found a rather well-defined, though weak wind shift near 25.1 N, 92.8 W (of course some margin of error in a developing system like this).

Great map of winds in Invest 91L: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Definitely looks to be organizing.

Do you think we'll get a special advisory upgrade this afternoon or will they wait until 5pm?

[Sanibel]

Losing SST's as it goes forward.

[Alyono]

I strongly disagree with NHC not upgrading. I simply do not understand this decision

[Hurricaneman]

probably waiting for a vortex message before pulling the trigger

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products