EPAC: HILDA- Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2015 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 13:33:09 N Lon : 142:59:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 954.9mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.7 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -15.7C Cloud Region Temp : -72.5C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

No G-IV missions planned?

Apparently not.

I guess they're confident in the recurve scenario.

[Yellow Evan]

No G-IV missions planned?

Apparently not.

I guess they're confident in the recurve scenario.

There'll be nothing left by the time this reaches Hawaii anyway IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye cooling again but so are cloud tops


----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2015 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 13:35:10 N Lon : 143:05:19 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 954.9mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.8 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -39.3C Cloud Region Temp : -73.1C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

That's fine. Still has almost another 20 hours or so.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow:

That's fine. Still has almost another 20 hours or so.

18-24 hours. Shear will be 2 knots in 12 hours and 1 knot in 18 hours and 5 knots in 24 hours. Then rapidly creeps up.

[CrazyC83]

Given the small size and Dvorak rules, it might be even stronger as Dvorak doesn't do well with pinhole eyes. Maybe 130 kt?

[Yellow Evan]

Given the small size and Dvorak rules, it might be even stronger as Dvorak doesn't do well with pinhole eyes. Maybe 130 kt?

This is a small eye, but not a pinhole one. 130 IMO just might bit too high given the eye right now is -35C (was just -5C).

[Yellow Evan]

Boy the eye is cooling so fast. High res is might suggest stadium effect.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2015 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 13:37:15 N Lon : 143:10:38 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 954.9mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.0 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -50.8C Cloud Region Temp : -73.6C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

Inner thermodynamics are going to be a factor from here on. Depends on luck. It could go into an ERC and shear kicks in or dry air intrusion happens; might be the nail in the coffin.

I think CrazyC83 is right and it's fluctuating between a pinhole eye and a small eye. Hard to tell. Seems that the eye can't get bigger since the storm itself is so small.

[tatertawt24]

Omg, it's TINY. I can't remember the last time I saw a storm that small.

[Yellow Evan]

Inner thermodynamics are going to be a factor from here on. Depends on luck. It could go into an ERC and shear kicks in or dry air intrusion happens; might be the nail in the coffin.

I think CrazyC83 is right and it's fluctuating between a pinhole eye and a small eye. Hard to tell. Seems that the eye can't get bigger since the storm itself is so small.

I've never seen a small storm like this ERC. Small storms also seem to avoid dry air more so than large, sprawling storms. Any disruption to the inner core though I agree could be fatal, but regardless, it's been an amazing run.

[Kingarabian]

Inner thermodynamics are going to be a factor from here on. Depends on luck. It could go into an ERC and shear kicks in or dry air intrusion happens; might be the nail in the coffin.

I think CrazyC83 is right and it's fluctuating between a pinhole eye and a small eye. Hard to tell. Seems that the eye can't get bigger since the storm itself is so small.

I've never seen a small storm like this ERC. Small storms also seem to avoid dry air more so than large, sprawling storms. Any disruption to the inner core though I agree could be fatal, but regardless, it's been an amazing run.

I think it's going through micro ERC's since the eye keeps warming and cooling randomly. That's why sometimes we see a pinhole eye feature and a small eye feature.

[tatertawt24]

Wait, I know what it reminds me of on satellite: Felix (2007).

[Yellow Evan]

Inner thermodynamics are going to be a factor from here on. Depends on luck. It could go into an ERC and shear kicks in or dry air intrusion happens; might be the nail in the coffin.

I think CrazyC83 is right and it's fluctuating between a pinhole eye and a small eye. Hard to tell. Seems that the eye can't get bigger since the storm itself is so small.

I've never seen a small storm like this ERC. Small storms also seem to avoid dry air more so than large, sprawling storms. Any disruption to the inner core though I agree could be fatal, but regardless, it's been an amazing run.

I think it's going through micro ERC's since the eye keeps warming and cooling randomly. That's why sometimes we see a pinhole eye feature and a small eye feature.

That's possible, but I thought the eye cooling around 5z may have been due to slight increase in shear since the hurricane became a little less organized. You could be right though.

Correction from above post: Felix did ERC. No signs of a confirmed ERC yet but it's possible.

[Kingarabian]

This CIMSS MIMIC gif shows all the core changes Hilda went through in the past 48 hours.

[WeatherGuesser]

This CIMSS MIMIC gif

12Meg?

[Yellow Evan]

Hurricane Hilda Advisory Number 012
Issued at 1100 AM HST SAT AUG 08 2015
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location: 13.7N 143.5W
ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 140 MPH...220 KM/H
Present movement: W or 280 degrees AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 946 MB...27.94 INCHES

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPA45 PHFO 082044
TCDCP5

HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 08 2015

HILDA HAS BEEN UNDERGOING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
THIS MORNING. THE IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE HAS AN EXCELLENT SATELLITE
PRESENTATION WITH INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC DEEP COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS
SURROUNDING A SMALL AND FAIRLY WELL DEFINED EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS AGENCIES CONTINUE TO CLIMB...AND WERE 6.5
FROM SAB AND JTWC...AND 6.0 FROM PHFO. THE CIMSS RAW ADT WAS 6.5
AND THE NESDIS INI WAS 6.3. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THESE
ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 120 KT.

FURTHER STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO CERTAINLY SEEMS
POSSIBLE AS HILDA MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER 28C WITH
LITTLE SHEAR. BY 24-36 HOURS...SSTS DECREASE A LITTLE ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK...AND SHEAR INCREASES A LITTLE...THUS A WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS...WITH VALUES REACHING
50 KNOTS OR GREATER BY DAY 4...AS HILDA MOVES FARTHER UNDERNEATH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THIS WILL LEADING TO RAPID WEAKENING BY DAYS 3
AND BEYOND.

HILDA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ABOUT 280/13 TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A BREAK OR COL
DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE BY MONDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO
SLOW. BEYOND 72 HOURS...HILDA WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THIS COL THAT
WILL RESULT IN VERY SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NW BY DAY 4. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER DAY 3 OWING TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS ALTER THE DEPTH OF THE STEERING FLOW
FOR THE CYCLONE AS THE DEEP CONVECTION BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEARED.
OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN
PREVIOUSLY AT 96 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY MORE OF A BEND BACK TOWARD THE
WNW AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS HILDA IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW
SYSTEM BY THEN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 13.7N 143.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 14.1N 145.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 15.1N 146.8W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 16.0N 148.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 16.9N 149.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 18.5N 150.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 19.9N 151.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 20.6N 153.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[Kingarabian]

-80 degrees trying to wrap around the eye now. When was the last time we've seen a Cat.5 in the CPAC?