WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

It's to East because convection is really pulsing that way,

Center looks around 12N 148W to me. Still far from the deep convection.

00z GFS just initialized. More N and weaker than 18z thus far.

[Yellow Evan]

Better but not great handle on this.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS through 54 hours is the same at the 18z. Just much weaker.

Through 72 hours it's more west and weaker.

[Yellow Evan]

I don't know why the 0z GFS is so weak so far.

[Alyono]

I don't know why the 0z GFS is so weak so far.

perhaps conditions simply are not that favorable. The easterly shear is very strong

[Yellow Evan]

I don't know why the 0z GFS is so weak so far.

perhaps conditions simply are not that favorable. The easterly shear is very strong

But has been forecast to relax in all GFS outputs and this one looks no different.

[1900hurricane]

I wouldn't be surprised if 04C beats it to Kilo.

[Kingarabian]

It's probably due to the bad handle. Remember within the past 7 days it showed a WNW track. Then shifted to NW and then NE. Then, for a couple of days it was showing a big island landfall. Then it was showing a Kauai/Oahu land fall.

[Yellow Evan]

I wouldn't be surprised if 04C beats it to Kilo.

Agreed. This looks terrible.

[Yellow Evan]

The 0z GFS shows a weaker trough near the dateline than the 18z and 12z runs

[1900hurricane]

I wouldn't be surprised if 04C beats it to Kiko.

*Kilo but agreed. This looks terrible.

Oops, fixed, thanks.

[Yellow Evan]

Through 114 hours 0z GFS.

[Kingarabian]

Really looks like it comes down to strength and how far east that LLC is.

[Yellow Evan]

Really looks like it comes down to strength and how far east that LLC is.

If the LLC is as far east as I think it is, we may see this shifted back east, but models are def heading west.

[CrazyC83]

Through 114 hours 0z GFS.

What is that monster in the NW corner of the map?

[Hurricaneman]

Through 114 hours 0z GFS.

What is that monster in the NW corner of the map?

Atsani I assume

[Kingarabian]

Actually comparing the 00z GFS and 18z GFS, not much difference in the long range. Both get really close to Kauai eventually, even though this run was further west initially. This could mean that if 03-C was stronger initially, it could've re-curved a lot close to Hawaii.

It stays stalled for 24 hours, sitting right next to Kauai as a major hurricane. Wow.

[Yellow Evan]

Actually comparing the 00z GFS and 18z GFS, not much difference in the long range. Both get really close to Kauai eventually, even though this run was further west initially. This could mean that if 03-C was stronger initially, it could've re-curved a lot close to Hawaii.

It stays stalled for 24 hours, sitting right next to Kauai as a major hurricane. Wow.

SHIPS output drops the shear a bit once it passes 155W. So assuming it is where I think it is, it has some ways to go,so I think this will stay weak and may even degenerate briefly.

If the center fix is the only issue and the say everything in the 0z GFS was sihfted a little left, the storm would stall even closer to Kaui, which could be bad.

[1900hurricane]

Through 114 hours 0z GFS.

What is that monster in the NW corner of the map?

Atsani I assume

Yep, that's extratropical Atsani. Unrelated, but that could be pretty spectacular in its own right.

[Kingarabian]

Actually comparing the 00z GFS and 18z GFS, not much difference in the long range. Both get really close to Kauai eventually, even though this run was further west initially. This could mean that if 03-C was stronger initially, it could've re-curved a lot close to Hawaii.

It stays stalled for 24 hours, sitting right next to Kauai as a major hurricane. Wow.

SHIPS output drops the shear a bit once it passes 155W. So assuming it is where I think it is, it has some ways to go,so I think this will stay weak and may even degenerate briefly.

If the center fix is the only issue and the say everything in the 0z GFS was sihfted a little left, the storm would stall even closer to Kaui, which could be bad.

But SST's are really warm, dry air isn't that bad, and there's an anti cyclone. Just needs to stack to get going.