ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[gatorcane]

dramatic shift west with the GEM with is passing just east of the Bahamas

[tolakram]

GFS has that drought buster but still runs the vorticity very near the northern edge of Hispaniola. I think GFS may be under-doing intensity because of this.

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[SouthFLTropics]

GFS from hour 126 to hour 180 has Florida being inundated with rain. SE Florida could sure use it but I'm sure the folks on the west coast would not welcome anymore precipitation.

SFT

[tolakram]

Weatherbell, Bastardi, forecasts cat 3 in the northern Bahamas moving north, concerned about a west turn. I'm reporting what he is saying, not offering an opinion.

[jlauderdal]

GFS from hour 126 to hour 180 has Florida being inundated with rain. SE Florida could sure use it but I'm sure the folks on the west coast would not welcome anymore precipitation.

SFT

no doubt we can use the rain on the se coast...wont depend on the gfs to provide the hopes and dreams beyond 72h

[WPBWeather]

Weatherbell, Bastardi, forecasts cat 3 in the northern Bahamas moving north, concerned about a west turn. I'm reporting what he is saying, not offering an opinion.

I was reading that too. I believe he thinks a Hurricane Bob 1991 redux.

[Bocadude85]

Weatherbell, Bastardi, forecasts cat 3 in the northern Bahamas moving north, concerned about a west turn. I'm reporting what he is saying, not offering an opinion.

I was reading that too. I believe he thinks a Hurricane Bob 1991 redux.

Would be hard to get a Hurricane Bob track if the 12z GFS steering forecast is correct.

[TheStormExpert]

Weatherbell, Bastardi, forecasts cat 3 in the northern Bahamas moving north, concerned about a west turn. I'm reporting what he is saying, not offering an opinion.

I was reading that too. I believe he thinks a Hurricane Bob 1991 redux.

Would be hard to get a Hurricane Bob track if the 12z GFS steering forecast is correct.

JB is probably siding with the Euro as usual.

[SouthFLTropics]

Weatherbell, Bastardi, forecasts cat 3 in the northern Bahamas moving north, concerned about a west turn. I'm reporting what he is saying, not offering an opinion.

I was reading that too. I believe he thinks a Hurricane Bob 1991 redux.

Would be hard to get a Hurricane Bob track if the 12z GFS steering forecast is correct.

GFS steering would lead me to believe more of a David 79' track with a possible rare landfall on the Ga coastline.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Weatherbell, Bastardi, forecasts cat 3 in the northern Bahamas moving north, concerned about a west turn. I'm reporting what he is saying, not offering an opinion.

I was reading that too. I believe he thinks a Hurricane Bob 1991 redux.

I was more under the impression that he believed it would get trapped under the high in the NE and either stall or make an anticyclonic loop or head west, not up the coast.

[Bocadude85]

Weatherbell, Bastardi, forecasts cat 3 in the northern Bahamas moving north, concerned about a west turn. I'm reporting what he is saying, not offering an opinion.

I was reading that too. I believe he thinks a Hurricane Bob 1991 redux.

I was more under the impression that he believed it would get trapped under the high in the NE and either stall or make an anticyclonic loop or head west, not up the coast.

Maybe something similar to Betsy in 1965? I guess we should wait and see if this even develops before trying to figure out a track 6 days from now.

[tolakram]

Maybe it's way way too far out to know anything.

[SouthFLTropics]

If you're going to go with Betsy 65' you also have to throw Jeanne 04' in there as well.

SFT

[ScottNAtlanta]

If you're going to go with Betsy 65' you also have to throw Jeanne 04' in there as well.

SFT

I was trying to resist the urge to mention either one

[Steve]

Weatherbell, Bastardi, forecasts cat 3 in the northern Bahamas moving north, concerned about a west turn. I'm reporting what he is saying, not offering an opinion.

Most systems involved in the last few days were going South to North (Danny excluded). JTWC has Goni turning back west making the "S" as it hits the Asian mainland on the other side of Japan. Gives the shot at a "short cut storm" for the East Coast if a ridge was to build in over top at the 10 day or so range. We'll have to wait and see. We're supposed to have an actual cold front (lower humidity), but that comes through today. Any high over top potentially impacting 98L to make a westward turn would be a later high pressure system.

[gatorcane]

A closer look at the Canadian which has this turning just east of the Bahamas by hour 162 and gaining strength but a huge shift west from previous runs. GFS is showing more ridging (but moves the vorticity over land so doesn't strengthen) so getting a little interesting. Likely will shift around more since it is 162 hours out.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro initialized.

[stormlover2013]

first of all fellows we need a good LLC and a storm first so the models can get a good grip on the system, 2nd anything more than 5 days out is worthless, models have a hard time during this time of year with how strong trough are or cold fronts, just look at the overall pattern with the models but we don't even have a named storm yet nobody knows where this will go, just be patient

[TheStormExpert]

A closer look at the Canadian which has this turning just east of the Bahamas by hour 162 and gaining strength but a huge shift west from previous runs. GFS is showing more ridging (but moves the vorticity over land so doesn't strengthen) so getting a little interesting. Likely will shift around more since it is 162 hours out.

http://i.imgur.com/1VhnW9H.png

But the GFS doesn't even develop 98L anymore. Is land interaction a factor?

[tolakram]