ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[chaser1]

... and here I was beginning to get excited that Central Florida might just get our season's first "slight" cool front to come on through. I certainly wouldn't want that to happen as a result the back-side flow from any major hurricane pushing into South or North Carolina! I suppose we'll see a slight westward nudge to the 5:00pm discussion; still, I just don't see Joaquin really making it that far to the west. Does anyone know whether the data pulled in from the Gulfstream flight, is incorporated into all other models (other globals and all others?). No doubt i'd assume this additional sampling of the atmosphere would be represented in the GFDL and HWRF

[floridasun78]

i notice that nhc do mention Bahamas at 11am discussion

[floridasun78]

... and here I was beginning to get excited that Central Florida might just get our season's first "slight" cool front to come on through. I certainly wouldn't want that to happen as a result the back-side flow from any major hurricane pushing into South or North Carolina! I suppose we'll see a slight westward nudge to the 5:00pm discussion; still, I just don't see Joaquin really making it that far to the west. Does anyone know whether the data pulled in from the Gulfstream flight, is incorporated into all other models (other globals and all others?). No doubt i'd assume this additional sampling of the atmosphere would be represented in the GFDL and HWRF

likely early morning models run

[PTrackerLA]

FWIW, 12z Euro "Control" run has landfall in NC looks 970'ish. Can't post image.

[Alyono]

FWIW, 12z Euro "Control" run has landfall in NC looks 970'ish. Can't post image.

which means deterministic is BS

[chaser1]

FWIW, 12z Euro "Control" run has landfall in NC looks 970'ish. Can't post image.

Also FWIW..., at 48 hours, the 18Z NAM is distinctly further south than at the adjusted time frame from the 12Z run. No northward turn thus far at 48 hours out

[Weatherwatcher98]

FWIW, 12z Euro "Control" run has landfall in NC looks 970'ish. Can't post image.

Also FWIW..., at 48 hours, the 18Z NAM is distinctly further south than at the adjusted time frame from the 12Z run. No northward turn thus far at 48 hours out

I know you Joked about Andrew but What was the set up back in 1992. Just Curious.

[floridasun78]

Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this storm.
Watches or warnings may be issued for portions of these islands
later this evening.

[chaser1]

FWIW, 12z Euro "Control" run has landfall in NC looks 970'ish. Can't post image.

Also FWIW..., at 48 hours, the 18Z NAM is distinctly further south than at the adjusted time frame from the 12Z run. No northward turn thus far at 48 hours out

I know you Joked about Andrew but What was the set up back in 1992. Just Curious.

Well, Andrew did have an unexpectedly strong and building ridge to its north (details of which I cannot particularly recall but likely as a result of my intentionally blacking out as much of that event as possible )

[ronjon]

Seems the key to the forecast (or at least one of the major ones) is the strength and building down of the north Atlantic ridge which for the HWRF, CMC, and ensemble runs drives the system into the mid-atlantic area.

[ronjon]

LOL - NHC splitting the baby down the middle on track forecast.

Later in the forecast period, there is a significant
divergence in the track guidance. The HWRF and U.K. Met Office
models forecast Joaquin to move over the east coast of the United
States later in the period whereas the ECMWF and GFS keep the system
well offshore. The official forecast lies between these
possibilities and is similar to the latest Florida State University
Superensemble solution.

[AutoPenalti]

FWIW, 12z Euro "Control" run has landfall in NC looks 970'ish. Can't post image.

Also FWIW..., at 48 hours, the 18Z NAM is distinctly further south than at the adjusted time frame from the 12Z run. No northward turn thus far at 48 hours out

I know you Joked about Andrew but What was the set up back in 1992. Just Curious.

The further south and west this thing goes, the more attention I will give to this system.

[floridasun78]

AutoPenalti were you at?

[AutoPenalti]

AutoPenalti were you at?

I live in Pompano Beach to be exact. A lot of people are mentioning that this should be of no concern to Florida, but nonetheless the more SW it goes, the more attention I'll give it. Nothing is certain in the near future, remember that not 4 days ago did we have Joaquin become a TS and bomb north without it moving to the South or West, fast-forward to today and it has been a completely different story and with a frontal boundary, North Atlantic ridge building in (albeit oddly unexpected), remnants of Ida, shear, and unreliable seasonal models anything can happen at this point.

[chaser1]

AutoPenalti were you at?

I live in Pompano Beach to be exact. A lot of people are mentioning that this should be of no concern to Florida, but nonetheless the more SW it goes, the more attention I'll give it. Nothing is certain in the near future, remember that not 4 days ago did we have Joaquin become a TS and bomb north without it moving to the South or West, fast-forward to today and it has been completely different story and with a frontal boundary, remnants of Ida, shear, and unreliable seasonal models anything can happen at this point.

Yeah, i'm beginning to consider that 99L is becoming a non-factor. Certainly, if we were to see that feature begin to deepen in phase with an eastern Seaboard long wave pattern, this would be a no-brainer. That doesn't appear to be evolving though.

[floridasun78]

AutoPenalti were you at?

I live in Pompano Beach to be exact. A lot of people are mentioning that this should be of no concern to Florida, but nonetheless the more SW it goes, the more attention I'll give it. Nothing is certain in the near future, remember that not 4 days ago did we have Joaquin become a TS and bomb north without it moving to the South or West, fast-forward to today and it has been a completely different story and with a frontal boundary, North Atlantic ridge building in (albeit oddly unexpected), remnants of Ida, shear, and unreliable seasonal models anything can happen at this point.

i am south of you miami

[chaser1]

AutoPenalti were you at?

I live in Pompano Beach to be exact. A lot of people are mentioning that this should be of no concern to Florida, but nonetheless the more SW it goes, the more attention I'll give it. Nothing is certain in the near future, remember that not 4 days ago did we have Joaquin become a TS and bomb north without it moving to the South or West, fast-forward to today and it has been a completely different story and with a frontal boundary, North Atlantic ridge building in (albeit oddly unexpected), remnants of Ida, shear, and unreliable seasonal models anything can happen at this point.

i am south of you miami

You guys have nothing to worry about... you're not in the "cone"....... (oh wait.... that's not necessarily good )

[PTrackerLA]

18z GFS wayyyy stronger than previous runs and diving SW at hr 36...

[blp]

Yep close call for Bahamas.

[drezee]

18z is less progressive with the trough and goes more negative tilt...should be a close call versus the 12z