ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Further eastward adjustments to the
track are likely.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2054.shtml?

[kat61]

any evidence Joaquin maybe pumping up the ridge?

can anyone please tell me what 'pump the ridge ' means?

[NDG]

From the NHC 5PM Discussion:

"The new forecast track is adjusted to the east of the previous forecast between 48-120 hours, but it still lies well to the left of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, HWRF, and the consensus models. Further eastward adjustments to the track are likely."

Are they likely to make another eastern adjustment at the 11:00 PM advisory or over the tomorrow?

Yes, if the rest or some of the tropical models come aboard with the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF & HWRF at 0z, they have no other choice but to keep shifting the track eastward

[TimeZone]

The US really dodged a bullet with this monster.

[northjaxpro]

any evidence Joaquin maybe pumping up the ridge?

can anyone please tell me what 'pump the ridge ' means?

To explain it in the quickest terms, it is possible that the outflow from the upper levels of an intense tropical cyclone can help to expand the ridge steering it. Subsident air outside of the periphery of the intense cyclone can indeed help in the increase of pressure rises to help expand a ridge. This can and on occasions in the past occured with very intense hurricanes like we see with Joaquin. In essence, these intense storms can create their own environment. If the pumping of the ridge takes place, it is more likely with intense tropical cyclones than one on a smaller scale.

[psyclone]

Pretty quick hop from Nasssua to West Palm, as well. Curve baby curve.[/quote]

Well, based on the information provided so far.....Grand Bahama Island is 94.6 miles from West Palm Beach; Grand Bahama is under hurricane warning; Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles; so one would think, based on Joaquin's continued movement, that some portions of SE Florida would have TS Watches put up.........eventually?? As far as I can tell....IMO nothing is for certain where Joaquin is concerned! Just food for thought.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

The closest the NHC has J getting to florida is 400 miles and TS winds extend 100 miles to the west so no need for any warnings in Florida even considering the margin of error.[/quote]
the story here isn't an underwarning for Florida (there is no threat) but rather an overwarning for portions of the Bahamas. Grand Bahama is under a hurricane warning yet if one looks at the wind probabilities product you'll see they have a 0% chance of hurricane force winds, a 0% chance of 50kt winds and a paltry, pitiful 5% chance of TS winds. I have long believed that the CYA policy of overwarning breeds complacency.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Sanibel]

This is a mean lady of a stalling, intensifying hurricane for Crooked Island no doubt. They've been in the eyewall all afternoon.

[windnrain]

So when is this north turn going to happen?

[Weatherwatcher98]

This is a mean lady of a stalling, intensifying hurricane for Crooked Island no doubt. They've been in the eyewall all afternoon.

Isn't it a he??

[Ken Lucas]

From the NHC 5PM Discussion:

"The new forecast track is adjusted to the east of the previous forecast between 48-120 hours, but it still lies well to the left of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, HWRF, and the consensus models. Further eastward adjustments to the track are likely."

Are they likely to make another eastern adjustment at the 11:00 PM advisory or over the tomorrow?

Yes, if the rest or some of the tropical models come aboard with the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF & HWRF at 0z, they have no other choice but to keep shifting the track eastward

Thanks.

[AutoPenalti]

They are calling for even more eastward adjustments and this thing is going west.

I just don't understand it.

[bella_may]

So when is this north turn going to happen?

Suppose to be happening right now

[bahamaswx]

They are calling for even more eastward adjustments and this thing is going west.

I just don't understand it.

50 miles, give or take, to the west now means little to the track a few days down the road.

[kat61]

any evidence Joaquin maybe pumping up the ridge?

can anyone please tell me what 'pump the ridge ' means?

To explain it in the quickest terms, it is possible that the outflow from the upper levels of an intense tropical cyclone can help to expand the ridge steering it. Subsident air outside of the periphery of the intense cyclone can indeed help in the increase of pressure rises to help expand a ridge. This can and on occasions in the past occured with very intense hurricanes like we see with Joaquin. In essence, these intense storms can create their own environment. If the pumping of the ridge takes place, it is more likely with intense tropical cyclones than one on a smaller scale.

Thanks northjaxpro. Does this help the cane make it's own path?

[AutoPenalti]

They are calling for even more eastward adjustments and this thing is going west.

I just don't understand it.

50 miles, give or take, to the west now means little to the track a few days down the road.

Well it does if you are the NHC. It missed its forecast point how many times now? This moment is crucial to the future of Joaquin to prove whether this is OTS or a threat to any US state on the eastern seaboard.

[Sanibel]

Correction: 20-25 mile eye IMO

[Bocadude85]

They are calling for even more eastward adjustments and this thing is going west.

I just don't understand it.

50 miles, give or take, to the west now means little to the track a few days down the road.

50 miles further west would be a direct hit for you wouldn't it?

[bahamaswx]

They are calling for even more eastward adjustments and this thing is going west.

I just don't understand it.

50 miles, give or take, to the west now means little to the track a few days down the road.

50 miles further west would be a direct hit for you wouldn't it?

Should be, but I'm in Florida at the moment. Sounds like few people back home took this storm that seriously, but I've been making sure my family was prepared.

[Sanibel]

No doubt Clarence Town, Long Island is getting slammed right now.

[northjaxpro]

quote="kat61"]

any evidence Joaquin maybe pumping up the ridge?

can anyone please tell me what 'pump the ridge ' means?

To explain it in the quickest terms, it is possible that the outflow from the upper levels of an intense tropical cyclone can help to expand the ridge steering it. Subsident air outside of the periphery of the intense cyclone can indeed help in the increase of pressure rises to help expand a ridge. This can and on occasions in the past occured with very intense hurricanes like we see with Joaquin. In essence, these intense storms can create their own environment. If the pumping of the ridge takes place, it is more likely with intense tropical cyclones than one on a smaller scale.

Thanks northjaxpro. Does this help the cane make it's own path?

It can in extreme instances. The pumping of the ridge scenario could play a role in helping to prevent an intense tropical cyclone like Joaquin from moving poleward or delay the turn for a period of time. This is why a few of us, including me, are watching to see IF, and it is a big IF, if this may be happening with Joaquin. I have maintained that I , like most I would think, would give this possibility only a very slight chance of happening given the steering mechanisms of the trough currently digging down into the GOM which should capture Joaquin as is forecasted to do. But, we are dealing with an extremely intense hurricane currently and still may reach Cat 5 status within the next 12-24 hours. Let me put it this way, if Joaquin manages to get past 75 degrees Longitude and continue a bit west a bit farther than any anticpated, including the models, then I think Joaquin creating his own environment with the pumping of the ridge would be the reason for that to have happened imo.

Just another wild card among all other things to monitor. Joaquin will get picked up eventually. But, there is a slight chance in my view that the turn north may get delayed a bit longer. Just my educated thoughts.