ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Is it about to miss the next forecast point to the north again?

[CrazyC83]

All in all, 115 kt appears reasonable given all the data.

[Nimbus]

I don't know if the cutt off low will dig far enough south. The tail end of the front appears to be breaking down and clouds in front of it just below naples are moving south and the high pressure building behind it looks to be effecting the central to western gulf.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

Not much of a front at that latitude, surface observations along the west coast of Florida have light winds from the north ~5 mph. Real dry air though. The cut off low is dropping south and will be easier to distinguish from the trough tomorrow. There will be upper level flow from the SE to the NW once Joaquin gets north of the center axis of the Low. Hurricanes track pole-ward on there own so the only real problem would be if high pressure builds in north of Joaquin which sometimes happens when a low cuts off like that.

[CrazyC83]

Is it about to miss the next forecast point to the north again?

It seems to be just short of it. Right now it is pretty much stationary.

[NDG]

It's early, but Recon seems to have found it stabilized - maybe the pressure might drop a bit more though, closer to or just below 930.

Where are you getting the report from, it has not updated in almost 20 minutes now.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur ... .knhc..txt - Backup site. Sometimes it goes down too, but it had the eyewall pass.

Cool thanks.

[AutoPenalti]

Is it about to miss the next forecast point to the north again?

It seems to be just short of it. Right now it is pretty much stationary.

Doesn't seem stationary yet...

[NDG]

And the Euro was correct again of going below the 23rd latitude

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 012329
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 26 20151001
232030 2311N 07401W 6977 02888 9787 +079 +074 153106 108 083 015 00
232100 2312N 07359W 6970 02916 9808 +079 +071 148095 102 081 017 03
232130 2313N 07358W 6961 02941 9827 +075 +067 146088 093 072 020 03
232200 2314N 07357W 6968 02943 9837 +079 +066 146087 090 /// /// 03
232230 2316N 07355W 6957 02970 9845 +083 +065 146083 090 064 010 03
232300 2317N 07354W 6970 02968 9844 +099 +061 144082 085 065 009 03
232330 2318N 07353W 6970 02982 9844 +109 +062 140081 082 064 006 00
232400 2320N 07351W 6972 02990 9850 +115 +061 137078 080 063 006 03
232430 2321N 07350W 6967 03011 9873 +107 +059 134075 078 062 006 03
232500 2322N 07349W 6959 03022 9849 +130 +055 117083 089 062 009 03
232530 2323N 07348W 6955 03020 9811 +159 +044 115072 091 064 004 00
232600 2324N 07347W 6973 02999 9815 +159 +032 120056 066 063 004 00
232630 2325N 07345W 6959 03022 9814 +162 +028 125067 073 058 001 03
232700 2327N 07344W 6956 03024 9820 +159 +019 134065 069 057 002 03
232730 2328N 07343W 6967 03021 9855 +136 +029 143057 060 049 001 00
232800 2329N 07341W 6983 03001 9888 +109 +048 155062 064 053 002 03
232830 2331N 07340W 6964 03030 9874 +123 +045 150055 061 055 003 00
232900 2332N 07339W 6969 03027 9875 +130 +027 140057 058 057 002 03
232930 2333N 07337W 6962 03040 9886 +124 +014 135056 058 060 001 03
233000 2334N 07336W 6970 03034 9894 +121 +020 141057 059 048 001 03
$$
;

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like that the lowest pressure they found is near 22.87N & 74.48W

Dropsonde hit 932 with 12kt wind

[CrazyC83]

Looks like that the lowest pressure they found is near 22.87N & 74.48W

Dropsonde hit 932 with 12kt wind

Confirms a 931 pressure.

[CrazyC83]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 012326
XXAA 51237 99229 70744 08024 99932 27419 24012 00/// ///// /////
92071 26814 23512 85819 23412 26004 70505 17050 22505 88999 77999
31313 09608 82312
61616 AF300 0911A JOAQUIN OB 07
62626 CENTER MBL WND 23510 AEV 07775 DLM WND 26503 932697 WL150 2
3512 083 REL 2286N07441W 231247 SPG 2286N07441W 231633 =
XXBB 51238 99229 70744 08024 00932 27419 11850 23412 22760 19423
33722 19457 44697 16450
21212 00932 24012 11903 23010 22850 26004 33697 21507
31313 09608 82312
61616 AF300 0911A JOAQUIN OB 07
62626 CENTER MBL WND 23510 AEV 07775 DLM WND 26503 932697 WL150 2
3512 083 REL 2286N07441W 231247 SPG 2286N07441W 231633 =
;

Dropsonde: 932mb with 12 kt winds. Actual pressure 931mb.

[ConvergenceZone]

The board posts are already dropping off significantly. Once this turns north, the amount of posts will come to a crawl as people begin to leave...I feel bad for the Bahamas right now though

Such is especially true if it is seen the CONUS is all clear...which it definitely is NOT at this time.

CZ: what is your problem? This board is for posts. Stick to Nor Cal weather if you don't like this.

Excuse me????? I was on topic, just making a board observation and commenting how bad I feel for the Bahamas right now. What is your problem?

[ScottNAtlanta]

I thought that the SE trough would either guide it in or if it was at the bottom of the trough it would kick it out. It doesnt look like either is happening

[northjaxpro]

Good evening ozonepete. Want to get your insights on the latest with Joaquin. I have shared some thoughts of my own.

Hi northjax. I just got on here so I haven't seen your comments. Thus mine are given without bias towards or against yours. The key for all of these forecasts as to whether this landfalls on the east coast is when, where and how strongly the Midwestern trough negatively tilts and catches Joaquin, including the possibility that it doesn't catch our hurricane at all, which is what the euro has assumed all along and now the other models are buying. Now you would think that since the extra G-IV samplings and extra east coast balloon samplings have occurred that the models are getting a better handle and that's why they're coming into agreement. But this particular interaction of the trough and Joaquin are so complex and still not even initiated yet that I have come to the conclusion we can't rely on any forecast, including blends, until Joaquin turns north and starts to accelerate. It's only then that the models can really resolve how much Joaquin may get pulled northwestward by the northern side of the trough, if at all. And the logical extension of this logic right now is that the further west Joaquin gets before the turn, and the stronger and deeper that trough reaches southeastward, the more likely that the trough catches this TC and pulls it northwestward.

Finally, when the models pointed to a landfall in the mid-Atlantic for days, everyone assumed it was true. Then the models for the most part had it curving into Hatteras/SE VA yesterday and everyone was fine with it - done deal. Now the models have it going out to sea and everyone assumes they are right again, just because the models agree with the euro. Granted a consensus has developed but I don't see a lot of reasons for high confidence yet. Not until this turns.

Yeah I am with you on your key points. The variables still in play is the reason I still have some slight pause before sounding the all clear for the U.S. East Coast. It is one of the most complex forecasts we have seen with so many variables in quite some time. Just curious like everyone else when the turn will happen.

[Lifeless]

Judging by that gif, it looks like its about to be launched north

[Hammy]

Looks like this has peaked based on recon--likely to see steady weakening starting tomorrow?

[lhpfish]

What do you guys make of that dry air pushing down on the storm? From the central atlantic

[NDG]

So I just did the calculation from the recently fixed center by the recon to the last fix at 15:20z
Joaquin moved in an average of a bearing of 240 degs, a distance of only 28 miles. So in almost 8 hours since the last recon fix, it averaged 3.5 miles an hour. Folks, I don't know how else to put it for you to see that Joaquin has continued to slowed down its forward speed towards the WSW

[terstorm1012]

Thanks for the note about the negative tilt not starting until Saturday. That's something I keep looking for.

[tropicwatch]

Raw Recon Data
( * ) Denotes suspect data
Time: 23:13:30Z
Coordinates: 22.867N 74.367W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.5 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,560 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 931.1 mb (27.50 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 187° at 17 kts (From the S at 19.6 mph)
Air Temp: 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Dew Pt: 7.2°C (45.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 20 kts (23.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 22 kts* (25.3 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr* (0.00 in/hr*)