ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[sunnyday]

When should the tropical storm watches/warnings go out for S FL?
Thank you for the information.

[Frank P]

Here's a longer saved radar loop

Comparing this radar loop to the latest vis sat loop, the radar looks to be showing perhaps the mid level rotation which has been strong most of the time with Erika and is moving just north of due west, the vis sat loop looks to be highlighting what is left of the LLC as it approaches the large island, perhaps moving to the WNW... my unprofessional opinion only...

[DrinknByTheBay]

Is it possible that Erika passes just south of Hispaniola?

I think it is if it doesn't gain any organization. I'm not sure why steering should be to the northwest when lower levels are all screaming to the west. Then again I'm not a met.

(First time, long time...)

This. I agree. This girl has been staying south while models keep busting to the north and east. Radar looks to continue her journey due west, when is she supposed to start her turn? 2 days ago?

[tgenius]

When should the tropical storm watches/warnings go out for S FL?
Thank you for the information.

Assuming these tracks pan out.. I imagine the Watch would be coming sometime around 11pm tonight or 5am at the latest tomorrow, but of course this all depends on a storm still existing! (Watches are 48 hours ahead)

[sunnyday]

Thank you!

[tolakram]

Here's a longer saved radar loop

[img ]http://imageshack.com/a/img538/1266/1TbSoq.gif[/img]

Comparing this radar loop to the latest vis sat loop, the radar looks to be showing perhaps the mid level rotation which has been strong most of the time with Erika and is moving just north of due west, the vis sat loop looks to be highlighting what is left of the LLC as it approaches the large island, perhaps moving to the WNW... my unprofessional opinion only...

That makes sense because at this range the radar beam would only be showing mid levels, or higher.

[Frank P]

Here's a longer saved radar loop

[img ]http://imageshack.com/a/img538/1266/1TbSoq.gif[/img]

Comparing this radar loop to the latest vis sat loop, the radar looks to be showing perhaps the mid level rotation which has been strong most of the time with Erika and is moving just north of due west, the vis sat loop looks to be highlighting what is left of the LLC as it approaches the large island, perhaps moving to the WNW... my unprofessional opinion only...

That makes sense because at this range the radar beam would only be showing mid levels, or higher.

Yeah, I don't think this thing has ever been stacked vertically like a healthy cyclone should be... would be interesting if it ever did, but the shear monster playing havoc with Erika..

[DESTRUCTION5]

Here's a longer saved radar loop

Comparing this radar loop to the latest vis sat loop, the radar looks to be showing perhaps the mid level rotation which has been strong most of the time with Erika and is moving just north of due west, the vis sat loop looks to be highlighting what is left of the LLC as it approaches the large island, perhaps moving to the WNW... my unprofessional opinion only...

I think what we may see here is reformation N of Hispanolia like many times before these storms seem to work thier way around the mountians and not plow thru them. All models now reform her into a closed low N of Cuba ranging from 35 - 60 MPH before reaching the southern penninsula. From all of them it looks like a wet east side with most accumulations on the GFS along the East of FL with the easterly fetch.

[Dean4Storms]

No way this LLC center survives the trip over Hispaniola. What is likely is that convection increases on the other side of the Island once it is over water and down sloping processes off the mountains kick in. A new LLC will quite likely develop out of that new burst of convection and then track along the North Coast of Cuba.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

[robbielyn]

If Erika crosses the eastern side of Hispaniola she should make it, there aren't to many mountains there. If she crosses the central/Western/Southern side then c-ya in a few years Erika.

Oh, and don't forget the shear. I had a feeling this was going to happen, I doubt Erika will be more than a breezy rain/flood event. And we don't need any more rain near the Tampa Bay area in FL

Just my opinion, listen to the NHC.

We sure don't wish this was strictly south fl event.

[alienstorm]

Good Morning

Well what we knew all along is happening that is the shear encounter has taken a toll on Erika. However, if we look at the high resolution visible loop and speed it out, you can see what's left of a center is SSE of Punta Cana on the eastern tip of the island.

The question is will this center hit land and then dissipate, or will it wiggle it way up the mona passage and reform on the NE tip of Hispaniola. We will not know until later today but it will be an interesting day to see what transpired. If it moves up the mona passage we will have a hurricane approaching the SE coast of Fla, if not then at best a TS that would reform on the eastern coast of Cuba sometime tomorrow and will not be very strong.

[Bluespider]

Interesting little hook in the GFS model run...

[HurriGuy]

My personal opinion. The cut off low that was positioned to the west of Erika yesterday causing the shear problems has drifted north some maybe to a more favorable position.

The conditions look more relaxed over Hispaniola ATM and I wouldn't be surprised if she tries to make a quick run at organization. Time will tell. I may be completely wrong.

[tolakram]

Once again, during an intermediate advisory, the track has to be contorted south.

[nativefloridian]

I take that back, it's already too far north. Speed this loop up.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=16&lon=-67&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=gray

I'm in need of some clarification on where the COC is supposedly at. It appears in this loop (the last frame) that the COC is just off the southeast coast of DR. Am I assuming correctly....or way off base? Thanks


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

I take that back, it's already too far north. Speed this loop up.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=16&lon=-67&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=gray

I'm in need of some clarification on where the COC is supposedly at. It appears in this loop (the last frame) that the COC is just off the southeast coast of DR. Am I assuming correctly....or way off base? Thanks

I'm not sure. I thought it was just off the southeast coast as well but the NHC 8am position puts it south of that. Hard to tell on the NHC map though, might be the same location.

[SouthFLTropics]

Just an opinion but based on latest NHC position as well as first visible imagery this morning my guess is that the gig is almost up. If the presumed LLC keeps heading the way it's going then it will most likely cross the highest peaks on the island. She looks ready to commit suicide.

However, she may have one last shot at survival if she degenerates and reforms north of the island. Not looking likely at this point.

Regardless, this looks to be a severe rain maker for many people and I fear that the loss of life on Hispaniola may be severe when it's all said and done.

[tolakram]

8:00 AM AST Fri Aug 28
Location: 17.7°N 68.5°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-70&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray&map=latlon

[NDG]

I have seen several cyclones recover from their entanglement with Hispaniola. David in 1979 and Fay in 2008 come immediately to my mind and there are others for sure. Please folks, can not let our guard down with this system.

Good morning northjaxpro, great reminder about David and Fay, not sure about David but I know Fay did not have to contender with the high shear & dry air Erika has to deal with which is probably even a bigger factor.

[SouthFLTropics]

Governor Scott has issued a State of Emergency for Florida.