ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kat61]

so is he still moving south?

[northjaxpro]

so is he still moving south?

Joaquin is still on a west/southwest header for the time being. Moving 5 mph.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 020009
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 30 20151002
000030 2410N 07416W 6968 03067 9929 +119 +022 088053 055 042 001 03
000100 2410N 07418W 6968 03069 9929 +120 +020 085050 051 043 001 00
000130 2410N 07420W 6968 03067 9933 +118 +020 084049 049 041 001 00
000200 2410N 07423W 6965 03073 9935 +115 +021 082049 049 042 001 00
000230 2410N 07425W 6966 03068 9932 +116 +020 079051 052 042 000 00
000300 2410N 07427W 6970 03062 9930 +118 +019 078052 053 044 001 03
000330 2410N 07429W 6968 03064 9927 +120 +018 077053 053 053 007 03
000400 2410N 07432W 6967 03066 9930 +118 +019 078049 053 040 001 00
000430 2410N 07434W 6966 03069 9936 +113 +025 075044 046 038 001 00
000500 2410N 07436W 6971 03062 9936 +112 +024 075045 046 038 000 03
000530 2410N 07438W 6965 03071 9937 +112 +023 075047 048 038 001 00
000600 2410N 07441W 6974 03061 9944 +108 +027 071046 048 038 000 00
000630 2410N 07443W 6968 03067 9942 +109 +026 067046 046 038 001 00
000700 2410N 07445W 6966 03074 9938 +114 +025 066046 048 037 000 03
000730 2410N 07447W 6961 03078 9938 +115 +024 066049 049 035 001 00
000800 2410N 07450W 6966 03073 9935 +117 +026 067050 050 034 001 00
000830 2410N 07452W 6966 03072 9947 +108 +024 064049 050 033 001 00
000900 2410N 07454W 6970 03069 9940 +114 +021 061048 049 034 000 00
000930 2410N 07456W 6967 03073 9941 +112 +021 061048 049 033 001 00
001000 2410N 07458W 6967 03071 9941 +115 +024 061051 052 031 001 00
$$
;

[northjaxpro]

The last visible satellite loop imagery for the day. What an impressive tropical cyclone and terror on the Bahamas!!

[kat61]

The last visible satellite loop imagery for the day. What an impressive tropical cyclone and terror on the Bahamas!!

really is a magnificent, beautiful disaster...gives me chills....

[Cyclenall]

The board posts are already dropping off significantly. Once this turns north, the amount of posts will come to a crawl as people begin to leave...I feel bad for the Bahamas right now though

Once they saw the 00z Euro everyone ran away faster than a crowd fleeing at full speed from Godzilla. Me included (soon to be).

Great first post there ozonepete.

Joaquin isn't looking as good, eye is worsening and the cloud shield is more unorganized.

[blp]

Amazing this keeps heading SW.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 020019
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 31 20151002
001030 2410N 07501W 6975 03064 9938 +118 +025 056051 052 029 001 00
001100 2410N 07503W 6968 03074 9947 +110 +024 057051 051 029 001 00
001130 2410N 07505W 6962 03084 9942 +115 +024 057051 051 029 001 03
001200 2410N 07507W 6974 03067 9943 +115 +022 058050 051 028 000 03
001230 2410N 07509W 6970 03075 9943 +117 +021 056049 050 027 001 03
001300 2410N 07511W 6966 03077 9938 +120 +018 053047 048 028 001 00
001330 2410N 07513W 6964 03083 9937 +122 +015 053048 048 028 001 03
001400 2410N 07516W 6970 03077 9940 +120 +012 049048 049 028 000 03
001430 2410N 07518W 6967 03078 9940 +120 +014 047046 047 086 002 03
001500 2410N 07520W 6969 03073 9957 +118 +017 047046 046 /// /// 03
001530 2410N 07522W 6970 03095 9955 +118 +018 045045 046 /// /// 03
001600 2410N 07524W 6966 03097 9947 +115 +019 044043 044 /// /// 03
001630 2410N 07526W 6967 03095 9963 +115 +019 042043 043 /// /// 03
001700 2410N 07528W 6967 03083 9960 +115 +019 041041 043 /// /// 03
001730 2409N 07530W 6968 03062 9951 +115 +019 039039 041 /// /// 03
001800 2409N 07532W 6965 03087 9957 +113 +019 036038 039 025 001 03
001830 2409N 07534W 6970 03085 9963 +110 +021 039037 038 027 002 00
001900 2409N 07536W 6967 03086 9966 +106 +024 042037 037 022 001 00
001930 2409N 07538W 6967 03091 9965 +109 +028 036037 038 023 001 03
002000 2409N 07540W 6969 03090 9970 +105 +027 038035 036 025 002 03
$$
;

[SouthFLTropics]

This is truly a very rare event that such a storm would be in this position in the Bahama's and the media in South Florida not going crazy. Show's the level of confidence in the NHC forecast and the technology today. With that said, the models busted with Erika earlier this season and saved Florida...Let's hope they don't bust with this one and smash us. Don't see that being a possibility with the deep trough coming down the GOM. For the Bahama's sake I hope this thing gets punted to sea soon. Those poor folks have been getting wrecked.

SFT

[ozonepete]

How can he be undergoing an ERC? I'm not really seeing much of a double wind maxima from the recon reports.

Because the interior eye-wall has collapsed and thus has no ring of wind maximum with it. Thus there is only one, new ring of maximum winds now.

[emeraldislenc]

You are right it is a magnificent disaster. My prayers to the people of the Bahamas.

[northjaxpro]

Amazing this keeps heading SW.

Yeah, the Cuban government just put up tropical storm warnings for the coast of the Northeast Providences which include Guantanamo Bay.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 020029
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 32 20151002
002030 2409N 07542W 6971 03085 9972 +104 +029 039038 039 026 001 00
002100 2409N 07544W 6967 03095 9970 +109 +024 038038 039 026 000 03
002130 2409N 07546W 6969 03093 9970 +110 +020 034038 038 024 001 00
002200 2409N 07548W 6969 03094 9972 +110 +021 028039 040 025 000 00
002230 2409N 07550W 6965 03099 9974 +110 +016 025039 040 024 001 03
002300 2409N 07552W 6969 03094 9976 +108 +012 022039 039 024 001 00
002330 2409N 07554W 6967 03098 9980 +106 +012 024039 039 022 001 00
002400 2409N 07555W 6967 03096 9982 +104 +012 024038 039 024 001 00
002430 2409N 07557W 6965 03106 9984 +103 +014 024037 038 026 001 03
002500 2409N 07559W 6965 03102 9983 +105 +013 027037 038 027 002 03
002530 2409N 07601W 6970 03099 9981 +110 +010 028037 037 025 000 03
002600 2409N 07603W 6969 03101 9980 +110 +010 025038 039 024 000 00
002630 2408N 07605W 6967 03106 9984 +106 +014 022039 040 024 000 03
002700 2408N 07607W 6958 03114 9987 +106 +014 024039 040 020 001 03
002730 2409N 07608W 6970 03103 9983 +110 +011 020040 041 022 001 00
002800 2410N 07610W 6969 03103 9984 +110 +016 024040 041 022 001 00
002830 2411N 07611W 6967 03108 9976 +117 +020 024039 041 023 001 03
002900 2412N 07613W 6966 03110 9978 +116 +018 026040 040 022 000 00
002930 2412N 07614W 6966 03111 9978 +115 +019 025040 040 023 000 00
003000 2413N 07616W 6969 03108 9987 +111 +026 021038 040 023 001 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

This is truly a very rare event that such a storm would be in this position in the Bahama's and the media in South Florida not going crazy. Show's the level of confidence in the NHC forecast and the technology today. With that said, the models busted with Erika earlier this season and saved Florida...Let's hope they don't bust with this one and smash us. Don't see that being a possibility with the deep trough coming down the GOM. For the Bahama's sake I hope this thing gets punted to sea soon. Those poor folks have been getting wrecked.

SFT

It makes me think of Floyd in 1999...with less confidence in any models and weaker technology, they had to evacuate everyone from FL to NJ...and that turned out to be a mess of itself especially when some of those areas were spared.

[northjaxpro]

This is truly a very rare event that such a storm would be in this position in the Bahama's and the media in South Florida not going crazy. Show's the level of confidence in the NHC forecast and the technology today. With that said, the models busted with Erika earlier this season and saved Florida...Let's hope they don't bust with this one and smash us. Don't see that being a possibility with the deep trough coming down the GOM. For the Bahama's sake I hope this thing gets punted to sea soon. Those poor folks have been getting wrecked.

SFT

It makes me think of Floyd in 1999...with less confidence in any models and weaker technology, they had to evacuate everyone from FL to NJ...and that turned out to be a mess of itself especially when some of those areas were spared.

Yeah, I will never forget Floyd. I was among those who were stuck in traffic for many hours with the massive evacuation. That was quite an irritating experience to say the least, but thankfully we in Florida were spared, but unfortunately NC coast was not.

[GlennOBX]

Excuse the simple question, but with the talk about whether or not this gets west of 75°W and whether the models had predicted that it would, does anything change regarding the consensus forecast if Joaquin does get past 75° W?

Thanks

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Just posting a few images.

7pm water vapor satellite from SSEC. 8pm NHC position. Air Force mission and high altitude NOAA G-IV mission.

[Hammy]

How can he be undergoing an ERC? I'm not really seeing much of a double wind maxima from the recon reports.

Because the interior eye-wall has collapsed and thus has no ring of wind maximum with it. Thus there is only one, new ring of maximum winds now.

Is this currently completing the cycle then?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[ozonepete]

Good evening ozonepete. Want to get your insights on the latest with Joaquin. I have shared some thoughts of my own.

Hi northjax. I just got on here so I haven't seen your comments. Thus mine are given without bias towards or against yours. The key for all of these forecasts as to whether this landfalls on the east coast is when, where and how strongly the Midwestern trough negatively tilts and catches Joaquin, including the possibility that it doesn't catch our hurricane at all, which is what the euro has assumed all along and now the other models are buying. Now you would think that since the extra G-IV samplings and extra east coast balloon samplings have occurred that the models are getting a better handle and that's why they're coming into agreement. But this particular interaction of the trough and Joaquin are so complex and still not even initiated yet that I have come to the conclusion we can't rely on any forecast, including blends, until Joaquin turns north and starts to accelerate. It's only then that the models can really resolve how much Joaquin may get pulled northwestward by the northern side of the trough, if at all. And the logical extension of this logic right now is that the further west Joaquin gets before the turn, and the stronger and deeper that trough reaches southeastward, the more likely that the trough catches this TC and pulls it northwestward.

Finally, when the models pointed to a landfall in the mid-Atlantic for days, everyone assumed it was true. Then the models for the most part had it curving into Hatteras/SE VA yesterday and everyone was fine with it - done deal. Now the models have it going out to sea and everyone assumes they are right again, just because the models agree with the euro. Granted a consensus has developed but I don't see a lot of reasons for high confidence yet. Not until this turns.

I had to comment since I was looking WV imagery at work earlier, and wondered if the specific way the low gets cut off or how the trough tilts could be missed by all the models and we get a different track. In reality I thought I might sound like an idiot, so I didn't post it. I am in now way an expert on the synoptics, and not a met. It is good to know I was at least on the right track in observing the features. Thanks for posting that analysis. It helps when our mets post so we can learn

You are always welcome. We pride ourselves here in helping you to get the right science; thus you'll get the science right.