EPAC: HILDA- Post-Tropical

#221 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 08, 2015 4:09 pm

Kingarabian wrote:-80 degrees trying to wrap around the eye now. When was the last time we've seen a Cat.5 in the CPAC?

Ioke in 2006.

Not trying to seem rude, but the cloud tops trying to wrap are only -75C though, but I get your point.

#222 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 08, 2015 4:12 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2015 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 13:38:00 N Lon : 143:20:12 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 952.7mb/112.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -44.8C Cloud Region Temp : -74.1C

Scene Type : EYE

TheStormExpert · #223 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Sat Aug 08, 2015 4:18 pm

Latest Model Guidance.

18z Global/Hurricane Models :darrow:

18z Intensity Guidance :darrow:

12z GFS Ensembles :darrow:

12z CMC Ensembles :darrow:

#224 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Aug 08, 2015 4:26 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:-80 degrees trying to wrap around the eye now. When was the last time we've seen a Cat.5 in the CPAC?

Ioke in 2006.

Not trying to seem rude, but the cloud tops trying to wrap are only -75C though, but I get your point.

I thought gray tops on AVN = -80c?

#225 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 08, 2015 4:30 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:-80 degrees trying to wrap around the eye now. When was the last time we've seen a Cat.5 in the CPAC?

Ioke in 2006.

Not trying to seem rude, but the cloud tops trying to wrap are only -75C though, but I get your point.

I thought gray tops on AVN = -80c?

Not quite. Seems to be ~-78C.

#226 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 08, 2015 4:47 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2015 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 13:38:59 N Lon : 143:26:54 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 950.5mb/115.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.6 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -26.1C Cloud Region Temp : -75.4C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

#227 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 08, 2015 5:03 pm

TPPZ02 PGTW 082142

A. HURRICANE 10E (HILDA)

B. 08/2032Z

C. 13.66N

D. 143.33W

E. THREE/GOES15

F. T6.0/6.5 STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.0. MET AND PT ARE
UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
08/1607Z 13.43N 142.35W WIND
08/1715Z 13.45N 142.50W SSMS

#228 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 08, 2015 5:13 pm

Sorry for posting too much, but wow, raw/adjusted ADT

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2015 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 13:40:00 N Lon : 143:33:29 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 946.4mb/119.8kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.8 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -26.5C Cloud Region Temp : -75.6C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

#229 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Aug 08, 2015 5:18 pm

It's okay post as much as you want and needed. What do you think those 90+ page ATL hurricane threads are full of anyway?

#230 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Aug 08, 2015 5:26 pm

Hilda is situated right under an anti cyclone. Couldn't ask for better conditions this far west.

#231 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 08, 2015 5:31 pm

About to hit a zero shear zone. Only question is will the eye be able to clear?

#232 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Aug 08, 2015 5:34 pm

If only we had Recon in this...

Anyway I think given its low latitude, very small size and anticyclone nearby, the pressure is probably quite high for the intensity. A pressure in the 935 range would likely be a Cat 5.

#233 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 08, 2015 5:37 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:If only we had Recon in this...

Anyway I think given its low latitude, very small size and anticyclone nearby, the pressure is probably quite high for the intensity. A pressure in the 935 range would likely be a Cat 5.

Felix was like 926 mbar at 155 knots. Pressure for this thing is probs in the 950s. Right now, I'd place it at 115/954.

#234 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Aug 08, 2015 5:46 pm

Hilda is certainly quite a strong hurricane. Fortunately for Hawaii, it should be very weak by the time it arrives in the area. Perhaps some rain and breezy conditions at most.

#235 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 08, 2015 5:49 pm

wxman57 wrote:Hilda is certainly quite a strong hurricane. Fortunately for Hawaii, it should be very weak by the time it arrives in the area. Perhaps some rain and breezy conditions at most.

Why is the eye cooling so much?

#236 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 08, 2015 5:51 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2015 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 13:41:02 N Lon : 143:39:57 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 946.4mb/119.8kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 5.5 5.4

WeatherGuesser · #237 Postby **WeatherGuesser** » Sat Aug 08, 2015 5:53 pm

Kingarabian wrote:It's okay post as much as you want and needed. What do you think those 90+ page ATL hurricane threads are full of anyway?

Usually discussion and commentary instead of repetitive jumbles of numbers and symbols that are meaningless to casual readers.

#238 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Aug 08, 2015 6:06 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Hilda is certainly quite a strong hurricane. Fortunately for Hawaii, it should be very weak by the time it arrives in the area. Perhaps some rain and breezy conditions at most.

Why is the eye cooling so much?

Hard to tell. It appears to have reached its peak today. Conditions ahead of it are less favorable than they were today.

#239 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 08, 2015 6:10 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Hilda is certainly quite a strong hurricane. Fortunately for Hawaii, it should be very weak by the time it arrives in the area. Perhaps some rain and breezy conditions at most.

Why is the eye cooling so much?

Hard to tell. It appears to have reached its peak today. Conditions ahead of it are less favorable than they were today.

Don't disagree, but SHIPS/CMISS have this headed towards lower wind shear. SST's and OHC values on declining, howeer.

#240 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Aug 08, 2015 6:10 pm

wxman57 wrote:Hilda is certainly quite a strong hurricane. Fortunately for Hawaii, it should be very weak by the time it arrives in the area. Perhaps some rain and breezy conditions at most.

Seems to have been moving south of the forecast points for most of today.

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