WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Actually comparing the 00z GFS and 18z GFS, not much difference in the long range. Both get really close to Kauai eventually, even though this run was further west initially. This could mean that if 03-C was stronger initially, it could've re-curved a lot close to Hawaii.

It stays stalled for 24 hours, sitting right next to Kauai as a major hurricane. Wow.

SHIPS output drops the shear a bit once it passes 155W. So assuming it is where I think it is, it has some ways to go,so I think this will stay weak and may even degenerate briefly.

If the center fix is the only issue and the say everything in the 0z GFS was sihfted a little left, the storm would stall even closer to Kaui, which could be bad.

But SST's are really warm, dry air isn't that bad, and there's an anti cyclone. Just needs to stack to get going.

Still 20+ knts of shear that this system is in is not good with the LLC far removed from the center. I think this will get going (ton clarify when I said stay weak, I meant the short-term), but not for another day or so at least.

[Kingarabian]

Still 20+ knts of shear that this system is in is not good with the LLC far removed from the center. I think this will get going (ton clarify when I said stay weak, I meant the short-term), but not for another day or so at least.

I agree. Well, recon is going to help a TON tomorrow.

[Alyono]

I'd put the center near 11N, 151.3W as of 0430

[Yellow Evan]

I'd put the center near 11N, 151.3W as of 0430

Perhaps it's re-forming? That'd be much more on par with the CPHC. CPHC at 3z is 11N 151.5W.

[Kingarabian]

I'd put the center near 11N, 151.3W as of 0430

In line with the CPHC.

And isn't this supposed to be moving NNW rather than W?

[Alyono]

I'd put the center near 11N, 151.3W as of 0430

In line with the CPHC.

And isn't this supposed to be moving NNW rather than W?

its a bit east of CPHC. About where I expected it to be to be honest.

As for movement, it is not expected to move NNW until Sunday

[Yellow Evan]

We'll have an ASCAT pass soon that will hopefully clear this up a bit.

[Kingarabian]

Per the Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii issued by the CPHC:

Beyond Friday our sensible weather becomes increasingly dependent on the track and intensity of tropical depression 03C. The models are indicating a renewed surge of deep moisture pushing back up the chain from SE to NW on the periphery of the depression starting Friday night which will is likely to bring bands of showers back in over the state. The pressure gradient will also tighten as the system initially passes S of the islands, so the trade winds will increase further to breezy levels.

Our local forecast early next week will continue to be heavily based on the six-hourly updates to the official CPHC forecast track and intensity of this system. Our latest forecast, based on the 11 am advisory, shows the possibility of tropical storm conditions for Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai in the monday/monday night time frame. In addition to the wind threat, we would expect to see rainbands and embedded thunderstorms extending well to the east of the track of the depression.

It is very important to consider that forecasts at longer ranges have a large margin of error, .with an average of nearly 300 miles at 5 days, and roughly 200 miles at 4 days. Do not get hung up on any precise track. Always consider alternate possibilities using both the error cone and wind speed probabilities and prepare as needed.

[Alyono]

much better

TXPN41 PHFO 210556
TCSNP1

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0600 UTC FRI AUG 21 2015

A. Tropical depression Three-C.

B. 21/0530Z.

C. 11.9°N.

D. 150.9°W.

E. Goes-15.

F. T2.5/2.5/d0.5/24 hrs.

G. Vis/ir/eir.

H. Remarks: Shear pattern with center < than 45 nm from EIR bd dg yields a data t of 2.5. MET and PT are 2.0. Final T based on data t.

I. Addl positions none.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro is live. Maybe stronger through 24 hours.

[Alyono]

EC weaker and farther west.

Instead of intensifying this on Sunday like all other models, it weakens it

[Alyono]

looks like no turn at all on the EC. No trough effect, westward track

[Alyono]

maybe 4C is altering the pattern. EC is showing decent development with that, Maybe there is outflow over 3C, which is keeping it very weak and west.

That said, the BS flag needs to be raised. It has it at its strongest right now. Indo elections are more legit than that solution

[Kingarabian]

04C looks like it's too small of a Cyclone to create that much shear that far out.

Anyways bad handles all around from all the models. Can't trust anything more than a day out. I mean the GFS even it stalled 24 hours.

[Alyono]

EC has a very weak upper trough northwest of this. Major difference is EC has a hurricane out of 4C while GFS has nothing

[Yellow Evan]

maybe 4C is altering the pattern. EC is showing decent development with that, Maybe there is outflow over 3C, which is keeping it very weak and west.

That said, the BS flag needs to be raised. It has it at its strongest right now. Indo elections are more legit than that solution

4C and 3C are too far apart to really interact.

I don't know what to say that this point. I think the most reasonable situation right now might be the 0z GFS.

[Yellow Evan]

EC has a very weak upper trough northwest of this. Major difference is EC has a hurricane out of 4C while GFS has nothing

Both models agree on an upper trough to the NW. Also what's really odd is how weak the ECMWf keeps it in the short run.

[Kingarabian]

EC has a very weak upper trough northwest of this. Major difference is EC has a hurricane out of 4C while GFS has nothing

04C and 03C both seem to be at the same intensity right now. Maybe the first to develop will dictate what happens with that trough?

Some bizarre stuff going on right now. Wish we had that GIV.

Let's see if the GFS follows suit.

[Yellow Evan]

Worth noting that the 0z ECMWf sitll bombs it out near the WPAC

[Yellow Evan]

Very interesting output

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  THREE       CP032015  08/21/15  06 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    30    31    32    34    40    45    51    56    60    61    63    62
V (KT) LAND       30    30    31    32    34    40    45    51    56    60    61    63    62
V (KT) LGE mod    30    30    31    31    32    35    39    43    48    53    57    60    61
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        18    14    12     9     6     8     6     8     7    15    20    26    21
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     7     7     1     0    -3    -4    -7    -3    -3    -4    -2    -4     0
SHEAR DIR         81    73    49    34   360   329   282   297   280   269   275   269   254
SST (C)         29.3  29.3  29.1  29.0  28.8  28.3  28.2  28.3  28.3  28.2  28.0  27.8  27.6
POT. INT. (KT)   159   159   157   156   154   149   146   145   146   144   142   140   137
200 MB T (C)   -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     8     8     9     9     9     9     8     7     7     6     6
700-500 MB RH     69    68    66    67    67    67    68    73    77    79    76    77    74
MODEL VTX (KT)    18    18    17    16    16    15    15    16    17    19    20    23    23
850 MB ENV VOR    92    83    72    60    48    29    22    -2     6     9     8    15    35
200 MB DIV        76    49    25    23    40    24    59    55    63    71    78    36    49
700-850 TADV      -1    -1    -2    -3    -3     0     0     2     5     9    12    15     6
LAND (KM)        929   808   703   632   593   592   629   540   428   305   199   115    42
LAT (DEG N)     12.0  12.5  12.9  13.3  13.6  14.8  16.5  17.7  18.7  19.8  21.0  21.8  22.1
LONG(DEG W)    150.7 152.1 153.5 154.9 156.3 159.2 161.5 162.3 162.0 161.6 161.4 160.9 160.2
STM SPEED (KT)    12    14    14    14    15    15    10     6     6     6     5     4     3
HEAT CONTENT      31    29    30    28    35    47    46    53    55    57    41    31    26

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10      CX,CY:  -8/  5
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  609  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  27.3 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  53.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   3.   8.  14.  20.  24.  27.  29.  30.  30.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   5.   5.   6.   5.   4.   1.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -9. -10. -11. -11. -11.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   4.   5.   5.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -4.  -2.   0.   2.   4.   7.   8.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -4.  -4.  -4.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           0.   1.   2.   4.  10.  15.  21.  26.  30.  31.  33.  32.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 THREE      08/21/15  06 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.8
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  11.7 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 127.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.9
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  27.3 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.3
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  30.6 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  42.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.3
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  45.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  72.2 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/ -0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    23% is   1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    18% is   2.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    12% is   2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)