ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

May I ask what an anti cyclone is?

An anticyclone is essentially a high pressure system. Oftentimes in regard to a tropical cyclone, an upper level anticyclone provides a favorable environment for tropical cyclone intensification by providing low wind shear and increased outflow.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

May I ask what an anti cyclone is?

High pressure aloft; it provides a low wind shear environment if positioned atop a tropical cyclone.

[SouthFLTropics]

41041 found the wind


Station 41041
NDBC
Location: 14.329N 46.082W
Date: Mon, 24 Aug 2015 22:50:00 UTC

Winds: S (180°) at 35.0 kt gusting to 42.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 10.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 10 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (73°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.69 in and rising
Air Temperature: 77.4 F
Dew Point: 75.4 F
Water Temperature: 81.5 F

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That might be the evidence needed to initiate advisories...Think they will wait until 11:00PM though to see what it does on satellite between now and then.

SFT

[AutoPenalti]

What causes such quick forward speed of systems like these if I may ask?

[Syx6sic]

41041 found the wind


Station 41041
NDBC
Location: 14.329N 46.082W
Date: Mon, 24 Aug 2015 22:50:00 UTC

Winds: S (180°) at 35.0 kt gusting to 42.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 10.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 10 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (73°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.69 in and rising
Air Temperature: 77.4 F
Dew Point: 75.4 F
Water Temperature: 81.5 F

View Details Opens in new window - View History Opens in new window

Yea just seen that one also

[LarryWx]

41041 found the wind


Station 41041
NDBC
Location: 14.329N 46.082W
Date: Mon, 24 Aug 2015 22:50:00 UTC

Winds: S (180°) at 35.0 kt gusting to 42.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 10.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 10 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (73°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.69 in and rising
Air Temperature: 77.4 F
Dew Point: 75.4 F
Water Temperature: 81.5 F

Thank you! There it is, folks. 35 knot sustained winds once the center got about an hour away. This should be enough for an upgrade ( right to a TS I'd think) since these are south winds east of the center even though the winds ahead of the center were only in the low 20's.
Anyone disagree?

[SouthDadeFish]

Larry, ASCAT also found TS force winds. Further, south winds do not necessarily mean the circulation is closed. South winds are often found on the east side of the wave axis. What we need to see are west winds to confirm a closed surface circulation.

[northjaxpro]

With that spin and red IR I don't see anything to stop development. Don't know what's inhibiting it right now. And it's in category 3 Danny's wake.



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I think 98L is its own worst enemy right now due to the forward speed. If it slows down it will really get stacked and takeoff.

SFT

Yes, I agree with this.

[YoshiMike]

Thank yall. And from my understanding, they do not travel through high pressure anticyclones. I think.

[northjaxpro]

Larry, ASCAT also found TS force winds. Further, south winds do not necessarily mean the circulation is closed. South winds are often found on the east side of the wave axis. What we need to see are west winds to confirm a closed surface circulation.

Agree! They won't upgrade until evidence of a closed off LLC.

[LarryWx]

Larry, ASCAT also found TS force winds. Further, south winds do not necessarily mean the circulation is closed. South winds are often found on the east side of the wave axis. What we need to see are west winds to confirm a closed surface circulation.

SouthDade,
Thanks for clarifying that! Maybe we'll still need to wait for recon after all. If there were a buoy south of the center, I wonder if there would have been west winds.

[abajan]

I wonder if the 8 PM TWO will contain 100% for the 5-day period.

[tropicwatch]

I think some watches might be prudent at the rate 98L is moving and the hurricane hunters are not schedule to get into it until tomorrow afternoon.

[jlauderdal]

I think some watches might be prudent at the rate 98L is moving and the hurricane hunters are not schedule to get into it until tomorrow afternoon.

what type of watches would you put up and where?

[tropicwatch]

TS watches for the leeward islands

[jlauderdal]

41041 found the wind


Station 41041
NDBC
Location: 14.329N 46.082W
Date: Mon, 24 Aug 2015 22:50:00 UTC

Winds: S (180°) at 35.0 kt gusting to 42.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 10.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 10 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (73°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.69 in and rising
Air Temperature: 77.4 F
Dew Point: 75.4 F
Water Temperature: 81.5 F

Thank you! There it is, folks. 35 knot sustained winds once the center got about an hour away. This should be enough for an upgrade ( right to a TS I'd think) since these are south winds east of the center even though the winds ahead of the center were only in the low 20's.
Anyone disagree?

you have evidence of a closed surface circulation?

[jlauderdal]

TS watches for the leeward islands

ok...but they havent even declared a td or ts

[jlauderdal]

TS watches for the leeward islands

the whole leewards or just some?


see how tricky the tropical game is?

[tropicwatch]

Tropical Storm Watch: An announcement that tropical-storm conditions are possible within the specified area.

It is like a severe thunderstorm watch, there doesn't have to be one to have a watch.

[LarryWx]

you have evidence of a closed surface circulation?[/quote]

No, I don't. I have since backtracked from what I said after the lack of evidence of a closed sfc circ (west winds) was noted. I spoke too soon. I wish we had a buoy further south!