ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[tolakram]

12Z a little stronger so far.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Looks like it hits the high shear zone. Very similar position to 0Z run.

[Siker]

I was about to post that the HWRF now calls for dissipation; turns out I was looking at Danny's plot. Here is 98L after beginning rapid deepening at 96 hours:

[tolakram]

A little further north, weaker than last run.

[tolakram]

Much weaker, vorticity getting washed out.

[gatorcane]

120 hours over SE Bahamas, but still pretty weak. Euro shows a lot more ridging this time and has shifted west from the 00Z run. Best to use 10M wind map to demonstrate until tropical tidbits updates and tolakram will post that image

[tolakram]

I'm out, have to go to a meeting.

[gatorcane]

144 hours ECMWF, big ridge now over the Western Atlantic and SE United States with 98L heading WNW in the South-Central Bahamas, though it looks weak - big shift west with this Euro run:

[gatorcane]

Better image, heading WNW in the Bahamas, this is day 6:

[gatorcane]

168 hours heading WNW between in the South-Central Bahamas, but still weak surprisingly given where it is located. Looks like a strong tropical wave instead of an organized system:

[SouthFLTropics]

As we've all seen and said countless times before...the trend is your friend. I wouldn't put much stock in any intensity forecast from any model at 168 hours. The trend of the synoptic setup showing a larger ridge is more my concern at that time frame.

SFT

[gatorcane]

Vorticity in the Bahamas and heading WNW slowly. 12Z ECMWF 168 hours below. What a BIG change in the synoptic setup from the previous ECMWF runs but that better aligns with how strong the Bermuda High has been all summer:

[gatorcane]

At 192 hours, the ECMWF has 98L in the FL straits/ SE Florida area but still has not blown it up (thankfully).

[Siker]

12z Euro and 12z GFS are fairly similar at 500mb.

Euro:



GFS:

[gatorcane]

192 hours, 500MB ridge over top of 98L. No way it is escaping with that pattern - thankfully the Euro doesn't blow it up but let's see what future runs have in store.

[Hammy]

So basically we went from the Euro showing a major out of this to barely keeping it at storm intensity and then gone in two days?

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1833 UTC MON AUG 24 2015
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982015) 20150824 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
        150824  1800   150825  0600   150825  1800   150826  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.5N  45.2W   15.4N  48.2W   16.3N  51.7W   17.1N  55.4W
BAMD    14.5N  45.2W   15.0N  48.0W   15.8N  50.6W   16.7N  52.7W
BAMM    14.5N  45.2W   15.1N  48.5W   15.8N  51.7W   16.4N  54.7W
LBAR    14.5N  45.2W   15.1N  48.6W   15.8N  52.1W   16.5N  55.5W
SHIP        40KTS          50KTS          59KTS          64KTS
DSHP        40KTS          50KTS          59KTS          64KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
        150826  1800   150827  1800   150828  1800   150829  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.7N  58.9W   18.9N  65.8W   20.8N  72.6W   22.7N  79.1W
BAMD    17.5N  54.3W   18.7N  57.0W   19.2N  59.9W   19.0N  63.5W
BAMM    17.1N  57.3W   18.5N  62.5W   20.3N  67.8W   22.2N  73.5W
LBAR    17.2N  58.7W   18.8N  64.5W   19.9N  70.3W    0.0N   0.0W
SHIP        68KTS          71KTS          69KTS          71KTS
DSHP        68KTS          71KTS          69KTS          71KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.5N LONCUR =  45.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  20KT
LATM12 =  14.0N LONM12 =  41.2W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  21KT
LATM24 =  13.4N LONM24 =  37.5W
WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   70NM RD34SE =   70NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro at 192 hours approaching SE Florida:

[stormlover2013]

guys look at the pattern, models struggle on troughs and cold fronts during this time of the year, but if the pattern suggest what the GFS and EURO are showing then this system is a gom storm if one develops but its going to keep changing