ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

hurricanedude · #221 Postby **hurricanedude** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:28 pm

abajan report me if you want......no one else has a problem with me..if you do...so be it

Darvince · #222 Postby **Darvince** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:28 pm

Shortwave still shows close to as much detail as visible.

#223 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:28 pm

Every frame that comes in shows deeper convection and the convection expanding. There are some extremely cold cloud tops showing up now. I do not know why RECON would be cancelled tomorrow.

Looks at the yellow showing up now on this IR image. When was the last time we saw that with a tropical system in this part of the Atlantic?

tatertawt24 · #224 Postby **tatertawt24** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:42 pm

Can recon reschedule if they see fit?

#225 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:44 pm

Gator,
Do you think FL is still pretty much in the clear or do you think that has changed?

johngaltfla · #226 Postby **johngaltfla** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:46 pm

Alyono wrote:I'd like to know why recon was cancelled for tomorrow

That is disturbing based on the latest satellite imagery.

#227 Postby **ozonepete** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:48 pm

tatertawt24 wrote:Can recon reschedule if they see fit?

Yes, for sure, although they need some lead time. I'm puzzled why it was cancelled as well. It's possible they feel they can rely on Dvorak, satellite images and ASCAT to upgrade tomorrow and thus save missions for Wednesday and beyond. They may need a lot of missions after that if the east coast is threatened.

#228 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:52 pm

Looks like TD #11 has found a sweet spot as shear is decreasing around it and to the west:

Hammy · #229 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:00 pm

Shortwave IR shows another vortex is about to be spit out to the north.

ozonepete wrote:
tatertawt24 wrote:Can recon reschedule if they see fit?

Yes, for sure, although they need some lead time. I'm puzzled why it was cancelled as well. It's possible they feel they can rely on Dvorak, satellite images and ASCAT to upgrade tomorrow and thus save missions for Wednesday and beyond. They may need a lot of missions after that if the east coast is threatened.

Slower shorter term intensification (as well as the movement seeming to be significantly slower) could be another reason for the cancellation.

TheStormExpert · #230 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:04 pm

New Video Discussion from Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan.

@TropicalTidbits: I've posted a video discussion on Invest 99L and Tropical Depression 11:

http://t.co/M4cW7AUwYP

#231 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:19 pm

Shear looks to be relaxing looking at the high clouds to the northwest of the depression.

1900hurricane · #232 Postby **1900hurricane** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:27 pm

Equatorial outflow is actually quite good for what 11L is right now. That's probably a big reason why the convection is fairly healthy, despite the shear.

TJRE · #233 Postby **TJRE** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:37 pm

Latest ASCAT pass 25kts est- in there-

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... MBds87.png

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/data ... TData.php/

nrl image
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... .100pc.jpg

#234 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:47 pm

LLC is clearly on the northern edge of the convection, not quite underneath of the middle of it. Light to moderate northerly shear is still affecting it, IMO, convection is having a hard time expanding to the north.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

#235 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:49 pm

TJRE wrote:Latest ASCAT pass 25kts est- in there-

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... MBds87.png

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/data ... TData.php/

nrl image
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... .100pc.jpg

The image above is from 14z this morning, the LLC is now close 26N after moving S all day.

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #236 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:50 pm

TJRE wrote:Latest ASCAT pass 25kts est- in there-

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... MBds87.png

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/data ... TData.php/

nrl image
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... .100pc.jpg

That ASCAT pass is from 10am EDT this morning (pass time is the purple time stamp at the bottom of the image)

Hammy · #237 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:50 pm

NDG wrote:LLC is clearly on the northern edge of the convection, not quite underneath of the middle of it. Light to moderate northerly shear is still affecting it, IMO, convection is having a hard time expanding to the north.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

Latest microwave pass shows this as well, though that's a fairly solid area of convection to the south.

I can easily see this being a TS at the moment barring ASCAT showing otherwise.

#238 Postby **ozonepete** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:51 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Equatorial outflow is actually quite good for what 11L is right now. That's probably a big reason why the convection is fairly healthy, despite the shear.

Good point. And good outflow is now clearly developing on the southwest quadrant.

#239 Postby **ozonepete** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:36 pm

It's got the look again. Building a nice core over the LLC. Let's see if it holds and/or expands more symmetrically overnight. Those are really cold cloud tops / hot towers popping now.

#240 Postby **HurricaneBelle** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:38 pm

Say hello to Joaquin:

WTNT31 KNHC 290236
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN...
...THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 70.4W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

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