ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

pgoss11 · #221 Postby **pgoss11** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:00 pm

It's my understanding, according to local mets here in Charleston SC, that a cold front will be swinging through our area later in the week here which essentially protects us from Joaquin coming here. Does that sound right?

#222 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:04 pm

18Z GFS down to 941 MB by hour 90 :eek:

#223 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:07 pm

ut oh...the GFS is turning it slowly NNW by hour 102 :eek:

#224 Postby **JtSmarts** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:07 pm

Looks like we may get a landfall this cycle.

#225 Postby **Alyono** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:08 pm

MU on Delmarva

PTrackerLA · #226 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:08 pm

Yikes much closer to the coast at hr 102 and 945mb. Will it get slung onshore???

#227 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:08 pm

102 hours:

#228 Postby **drezee** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:08 pm

drezee wrote:18z is less progressive with the trough and goes more negative tilt...should be a close call versus the 12z

OMG...the horror!!! That run is sick...

#229 Postby **JtSmarts** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:09 pm

Huge shift west from the 12z which had Joaquin going way out to sea.

Weatherwatcher98 · #230 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:10 pm

gatorcane wrote:102 hours:

that looks more east than nnw

#231 Postby **drezee** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:10 pm

90 degrees into Delaware!!!

#232 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:10 pm

Alyono wrote:MU on Delmarva

This would be catastrophic with the astronomical high tides....

TheStormExpert · #233 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:14 pm

Might be giving Kudos to the Euro if this verifies. :eek:

#234 Postby **drezee** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:14 pm

It is deepening on the way in...that is uncalled for...GFS, I am throwing the flag.

TheStormExpert · #235 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:14 pm

BTW, does this run have the GIV plane data in it or will that be the 00z runs?

Weatherwatcher98 · #236 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:15 pm

These runs are pointless without the Gulfstream Data in my opinion. Especially after the Burst this afternoon. Not accurate until the data is ingested. Only thing that is 99.9% certain is Florida is safe :wink:

#237 Postby **Alyono** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:15 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:BTW, does this run have the GIV plane data in it or will that be the 00z runs?

yes, half the sondes go into the 18Z, half into the 0Z

#238 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:16 pm

Wow, speechless: :eek:

#239 Postby **drezee** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:17 pm

The trees still have leaves...the tree damage in Mid-Atlantic would be historic.

#240 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:18 pm

Joaquin is not "jokin' folks. Time to get prepared if you are along the East Coast of the U.S. especially in that Mid-Atlantic area. On the 18Z GFS, looks like Joaquin turns NE after moving inland and then hits the big cities of the NE U.S like Philly and New York, but at least it is a good deal weaker. Still it would be a lot of rain and nasty weather but could be similar to a noreaster or something for them without the snow.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

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