ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Raebie]

A state of emergency for a tropical storm? Is that typical?

If there's the potential for 2 feet of rain, probably.

[tolakram]

A state of emergency for a tropical storm? Is that typical?

Rain and lots of it. Even if it was a hurricane the area effected by the winds would be relatively small compared to the rain effects. Most models show this over or near Florida for 5 days.

[SouthFLTropics]

A state of emergency for a tropical storm? Is that typical?

Yes...Standard Operating Procedure

[NDG]

To get an idea of what those mountains will do to the storm's structure, take a look at the low level clouds to the NW of the center(s).. the low level clouds rotating are running right into the mountain chain and are not making it over them. You can see them dissipate.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

That's pretty amazing - It's like a brick wall - Thanks for the link!

The reason also why the low clouds "do not make it" over the mountains is because as the surface winds go downstream on the leeward side of the mountains it creates a sinking/stable environment.

[SouthFLTropics]

To get an idea of what those mountains will do to the storm's structure, take a look at the low level clouds to the NW of the center(s).. the low level clouds rotating are running right into the mountain chain and are not making it over them. You can see them dissipate.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

That's pretty amazing - It's like a brick wall - Thanks for the link!

The reason also why the low clouds "do not make it" over the mountains is because as the surface winds go downstream on the leeward side of the mountains it creates a sinking/stable environment.

You can clearly see where it hits it...That is where the highest peaks on the island are. With that loop you don't even need a topography map.

SFT

[JPmia]

yeah exactly which is why those mountains are so deadly to tropical systems.

[NDG]

Per the latest recon report, there goes the LLC, lol. Once again a broad low pressure center.

[tropicwatch]

A state of emergency for a tropical storm? Is that typical?

It is mainly a mechanism to allow federal assistance into the state. Without it, FEMA and other federal agencies would not be able to help. Doing this in advance allows time to get things ready to move when and if needed.

[AdvAutoBob]

A state of emergency for a tropical storm? Is that typical?

Yes.. it allows for resources to be released as needed. SOP

(EDIT) - just call me "Captain Redundancy"

[SouthFLTropics]

Per the latest recon report, there goes the LLC, lol. Once again a broad low pressure center.

Perhaps Wxman is warming up Bones in the bullpen...

[Mouton]

Just did a run of the buoy reads across the north of the storm. Most seem to have rising barometer readings which seem to imply to me the ridge continues to build west. I don't see the storm making any headway into a rising high pressure ridge. Those who have problems with the BAMS models should note they have been pretty correct on the path of the storm for quite some time. If it were to survive Hispanola and then clip eastern cuba as projected by a rising ridge, my sense is it would need sometime to regenerate into anything of note and by that time it should be inland over the Fl West Coast or the Panhandle.

Just my untrained and unofficial prorclaimation so please refer to the experts and especially the National Hurricane Center for any informed information on this or any other storms.

[drezee]

Per the latest recon report, there goes the LLC, lol. Once again a broad low pressure center.

Perhaps Wxman is warming up Bones in the bullpen...

During an El Niño year, Bones is never far away...

[NDG]

At this rate of it not wanting to gain much latitude, the 12z tropical BAM models' run might be the ones to follow and if so not only does the vorticity has to deal with Hispaniola's mountains it would have to also deal with eastern Cuba's mountains.
I don't even know why I am wasting so much time with Erika this morning, I should be checking things out every 6 hours at the most if it even survives today.

[tolakram]

Speed this loop up.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-70&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=gray

A couple of interesting observations. You can sort of see the LLC die in the final frames as what appears to be an outflow boundary shoots east across the middle.

There's a swirl just south of Haiti which is probably a localized feature.

[HurricaneFrances04]

I believe I see a LLC about to make landfall on the SE corner of the Dominican Republic (18N 69W) and a second LLC to the SW (near 17.5N 69.5W). The one further north might be the one we were tracking on PR radar last night, and looks to be headed WNW.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

There does appear to be eastward moving inflow in the storms south of the LLC.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Speed this loop up.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-70&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=gray

A couple of interesting observations. You can sort of see the LLC die in the final frames as what appears to be an outflow boundary shoots east across the middle.

There's a swirl just south of Haiti which is probably a localized feature.

Wow. Look at the clouds moving over Hispaniola from the north. You can tell where the highest mountains are.

[tropicwatch]

HH found a wind change sw of the last position. Weird storm

[tolakram]

Looking at that loop, especially the last few frames, I swear the LLC is reforming further south. I must be wrong, but you can see what little westward moving clouds there are start moving south, southwest and clouds further south start to move west.

Easy to get fooled by optical illusions.

[HurriGuy]

Recon found the slight wind shift to the south