ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Any particular reason why Erika has yet to make a primarily west-northwestward heading?

.real weak, real disorganized, hard to believe we are still using the term center but its there...weak means west with this system, thats the setup for now

[Evil Jeremy]

Anyone enough courageous to guess what the track/intensity forecast at 11am will be?

I say track nudges west a tad (guidance hasn't really changed), they forecast weakening to a depression over the next 24 hours over the mountains, bring it back to a weak TS over the Florida Straits.

[Jevo]

Dr. McCoy.. Paging Dr. McCoy.

[BigB0882]

Didn't almost all of the models have this north of PR? It did appear to have more of a WNW track when I looked this morning but that kind of just does enough to negate the slightly south of west path it took the previous day.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

sorry, having Charley flashbacks. this stays weak and skirts south of the islands before turning north to cross cuba and bombing. -hoping not the case and not even possible this time around. just feels funny like something like that could happen.

[tailgater]

Anyone enough courageous to guess what the track/intensity forecast at 11am will be?

I say track nudges west a tad (guidance hasn't really changed), they forecast weakening to a depression over the next 24 hours over the mountains, bring it back to a weak TS over the Florida Straits.

I'd buy that theory.
Also if the current large gyre gains a little latitude and crashes all the way into those mountains, there will still be a decent threat of regeneration

[AdamFirst]

Didn't almost all of the models have this north of PR? It did appear to have more of a WNW track when I looked this morning but that kind of just does enough to negate the slightly south of west path it took the previous day.

A lot of the models had it skirting PR by the east on a WNW heading, escaping Hispaniola. It could of happened if the new center (that formed by St. Croix) wasn't heading primarily west.

It's a weak, extremely disorganized entity, so it continues to head west rather than feel the ridge as the NHC keeps alluding to.

[HurriGuy]

Come on NHC

Drop the sudden northwest movement.

[LCfromFL]

Tropical Storm Watch for Eastern Cuba just issued

000
WTNT35 KNHC 281444
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

...CENTER OF ERIKA NOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 69.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and
Guantanamo.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the U. S.
Virgin Islands.

The Meteorological Service of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* Dominican Republic
* Haiti
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas
* The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the
progress of Erika.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 69.4 West. Erika is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Dominican
Republic this afternoon, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands
tonight, and move near the central and northwestern Bahamas Saturday
and Saturday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast this afternoon and tonight as
Erika moves over land, followed by little change in strength through
Saturday night.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
to the east of the center. Punta Cana at the eastern end of the
Dominican Republic recently reported a wind gust of 40 mph
(64 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft
data is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions affecting Puerto Rico will continue
for the next several hours before subsiding later today. Tropical
storm conditions are currently spreading across portions of the
Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
spread across Haiti today, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight, and the central
Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
northwestern Bahamas by Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern and central Bahamas through Saturday.
An additional 1 to 2 inches is expected for Puerto Rico. These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Jevo]

Unless the NHC sees something we don't then this may miss the DR to the South. If that happens and she manages not to open up then we better lock up the good booze because the GOMers are going to start flooding in after this becomes more of a Gulf threat.

[CFLHurricane]

At this pointing leaning towards an open wave at the end of the day- lots of rain, little bit of wind. The NHC missed this one badly.

Just my 2 cents.

[BobHarlem]

NHC continues to say, "Move Northwest $!## it"

[Comradez]

This thing ain't going over the mountains. It just will not make that turn while it is so weak and while all the convective activity is tugging it to the southeast.

My bet is that it continues to the west while it is weak, barely clipping the southern spur of Hispanola and maybe the eastern spur of Haiti, then paralleling Cuba's SOUTHERN coast, (MAYBE re-strengthening a bit at that point), to finally cross Cuba around the Isle of Pines area as a strong tropical storm and come up into the GOM and up the WESTERN side of Florida while strengthening into a hurricane.

Just you watch. Once the models actually get a good initialization with the center at 17 N, 69 W (SOUTH of Hispanola), they will realize that they need to jump west.

Edit: by the way, I am not a professional met, don't take my word on it, yadda yadda yadda. ; )

[Ntxw]

Is that an outflow boundary (gust front) on the west/southwest side of the cluster of thunderstorms? Thats not good for organization as wxman57 likes to say

[wxman57]

Erika's LLC is barely hanging on. It probably wouldn't qualify for an upgrade to a TS if recon went out to investigate a disturbance and found what they're seeing now. NHC track shifts west, which I agree with, but I think they didn't go far enough west. What I don't agree with is the projected intensity of 50 kts in the FL Straits, though I know they're just being a bit overly cautious so that people will still pay attention to Erika. I think it's going to weaken to a remnant low or depression over the DR and Cuba and maybe reach minimal TS strength in the eastern Gulf - west of the FL Peninsula. Could just remain an area of squalls that tracks northward across the eastern Gulf and FL Peninsula Sunday night through Tuesday. Mainly a rain event for Florida. The hurricane threat there is now very low.

[LCfromFL]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 281452
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

Morning visible imagery shows that the broad low-level center of
Erika is exposed to the west of the main convective area due to the
effects of 20-25 kt of westerly vertical wind shear. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported a large area of
40-45 kt surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency
Microwave Radiometer and 850 mb flight-level winds as high as 55 kt,
so the initial intensity remains 45 kt. The central pressure based
on the aircraft reports is 1008 mb.

Now that the center is somewhat easier to locate, the initial motion
is a somewhat more confident 285/16. A generally west-northwestward
motion is expected for the next 48 hours or so as Erika moves around
the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. After that
time, a northwestward and northward turn and a decrease in forward
speed are forecast as Erika moves between the ridge and a mid- to
upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance
continues to show some spread based on the forecast strength of
Erika. The models with a stronger cyclone, such as the GFDL and
GFS, show a faster northward turn and are on the eastern side of the
guidance envelope. On the other hand, the ECMWF forecasts a weaker
storm and lies on the left side of the envelope. An extra
complication is that passage over Hispaniola is likely to disrupt
the circulation, with the possibility that the center could reform
somewhere northwest or west of the island. Overall, the guidance
envelope has shifted a little to the west since the previous
advisory, and the new forecast track shows a similar nudge through
96 hours. The guidance is also showing a faster forward speed than
six hours ago, so the new track is also a little faster than the
previous track.

Westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to
continue or increase during the next 12 to 24 hours. This,
combined with land interaction, suggests that the cyclone should
weaken, and there is a chance the system could degenerate to a
tropical wave while crossing Hispaniola. Assuming the cyclone
survives, the shear should decrease some after 36 hours, which
could allow some strengthening up to the time of possible landfall
on the Florida Peninsula. The new intensity forecast is an update
of the previous forecast, and like the previous forecast it is low
confidence.

The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be
very heavy rainfall over portions of the Dominican Republic and
Haiti today and tonight. These rains could produce flash floods and
mud slides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 17.7N 69.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 19.3N 71.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/1200Z 20.8N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 30/0000Z 22.3N 77.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 23.5N 79.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 26.0N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1200Z 28.5N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/1200Z 30.5N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[AutoPenalti]

NHC continues to say, "Move Northwest $!## it"

At this point I'm inclined to believe that it keeps moving WNW to the Yucutan, trough comes in and recurves ala Wilma.

[Raebie]

Erika's LLC is barely hanging on. It probably wouldn't qualify for an upgrade to a TS if recon went out to investigate a disturbance and found what they're seeing now. NHC track shifts west, which I agree with, but I think they didn't go far enough west. What I don't agree with is the projected intensity of 50 kts in the FL Straits, though I know they're just being a bit overly cautious so that people will still pay attention to Erika. I think it's going to weaken to a remnant low or depression over the DR and Cuba and maybe reach minimal TS strength in the eastern Gulf - west of the FL Peninsula. Could just remain an area of squalls that tracks northward across the eastern Gulf and FL Peninsula Sunday night through Tuesday. Mainly a rain event for Florida. The hurricane threat there is now very low.

Chances for NC rain with this scenario?

[babycane]

[Stormcenter]

Track keeps on shifting westward and westward with every new advisory. I would be a little concerned if I lived in Florida. IMO