ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

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ROCK
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2241 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:31 pm

:uarrow: how was initilization? curious where it pinned the tail on the center.... :lol:
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#2242 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:32 pm

Mona Passage

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2243 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:32 pm

ROCK wrote::uarrow: how was initilization? curious where it pinned the tail on the center.... :lol:

17N 64.8 or so.
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#2244 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:34 pm

North coast of Hispaniola at 21 hours

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2245 Postby blp » Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:36 pm

:uarrow: Looks like it stays intact this time. Interesting run coming to show the potential in Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2246 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:36 pm

Ever so slightly north at 21 hours from the 18z position. But it's offshore.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2247 Postby blp » Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:37 pm

I was saying it earlier I think the best thing is for that southern vort to hit land and dissipate to allow the more northern vort to take over.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2248 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:37 pm

blp wrote::uarrow: Looks like it stays intact this time. Interesting run coming to show the potential in Bahamas.



what are the odds of the dominant center passing thru the mona passage? like 1000 to 1.... :lol:

I need to lay off my wine...
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#2249 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:39 pm

At 27 hours, a bit North and East from the last run, and a bit stronger for the HWRF.
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#2250 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:42 pm

HWRF is definitely ticked up on this run...More North and slightly stronger.
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#2251 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:42 pm

Given the HWRF's track it could be initializing the vortex near St Croix earlier as the dominant one, as it shoots it NNW almost immediately at the start, and it's already south of that.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2252 Postby blp » Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:42 pm

One thing to keep in mind is that the NHC saw the GFS and the other runs today and kept a Hurricane in the forecast. They would have easily pulled the plug but they know the conditions in the Bahamas are favorable if it gets its act together.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2253 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:44 pm

the 0Z CMC should be coming out soon??
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2254 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:45 pm

ROCK wrote:the 0Z CMC should be coming out soon??


It's out. Miami landfall in 66 hours.

00z UKMET has Erika cut through the Florida Straits (runs over Key West), turn north a safe distance from the Florida west coast, and landfall around the Big Bend
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Re:

#2255 Postby Steve » Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:46 pm

Weatherlover12 wrote:I've been tracking this for a long time. I've asked tons of questions on here. The storm looks weak and from what thinking is.. It might not make it. I was going to prepare tomorrow. But now I don't need to because the storm is a mess! Looks like my part of FL is getting nothing. Thanks everyone . If anything changes let us know.
WeatherLover12- Not a pro met.. Just a citizen

Ps: if another storm is said to target FL.. I will not take it seriously. I & my town are tired of wasting money. Thank you all



No offense, but I think Michael Brown might be able to assist your community. He does a heck of a job. Chertoff too. Just appoint people who don't believe in governmental solutions to run government, and your town will be fine just like mine was on September 1, 2005.
Last edited by Steve on Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2256 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:47 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
ROCK wrote:the 0Z CMC should be coming out soon??


It's out. Miami landfall in 66 hours.

00z UKMET has Erika cut through the Florida Straits (runs over Key West), turn north a safe distance from the Florida west coast, and landfall around the Big Bend



thanks EJ...when you get old like me you forget... :lol:
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2257 Postby emeraldislenc » Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:47 pm

So some are saying it is not going to be much of a storm
What are your thoughts now? :flag:
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2258 Postby Ntxw » Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:48 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:00z UKMET has Erika cut through the Florida Straits (runs over Key West), turn north a safe distance from the Florida west coast, and landfall around the Big Bend


With the GFS run tonight, and the 12z Euro the three are in some form or fashion similar. If you want consensus and not splitting hairs, you're a happy camper with the result of the runs.
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ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2259 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:49 pm

Weatherlover12 wrote:I've been tracking this for a long time. I've asked tons of questions on here. The storm looks weak and from what thinking is.. It might not make it. I was going to prepare tomorrow. But now I don't need to because the storm is a mess! Looks like my part of FL is getting nothing. Thanks everyone . If anything changes let us know.
WeatherLover12- Not a pro met.. Just a citizen

Ps: if another storm is said to target FL.. I will not take it seriously. I & my town are tired of wasting money. Thank you all

That's a pretty foolish thing to say. Always be prepared. You never know what has never happened before. If you don't prepare and get hit, you'll feel foolish. Better to be prepared and be wrong, than a fool and suggest others not to worry, and then be responsible for that. It's all perspective. Just be safe. You should have a kit ready anyway.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2260 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:49 pm

emeraldislenc wrote:So some are saying it is not going to be much of a storm
What are your thoughts now? :flag:



its a wait a see sort of thing....land interaction, another center, got to wait it out and hope for the best outcome...
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