ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[Kingarabian]

LOL.

Your Euro model runs soon!

[Bocadude85]

0z HWRF landfall south Florida as a tropical storm.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF hour 75...landfall Florida City/Homestead. TS at most.

I've had enough for one day...I'm out. Euro will be what it will be. I'll see it in the AM. Goodnight all.

SFT

[tolakram]

HWRF

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GFS ensemble (GEFS) mean is the furthest west by a good margin of at least the last four GEFS runs. It has the mean lowest SLP all of the way out to 86W (at 27N) next Wed. after having barely bypassed SW FL. So, the 0Z GFS operational run is not at all on its own and is actually a bit east of the 0Z GEFS mean. This GEFS has a mean based sfc low hitting the north central GOM coast on Fri 9/4.

[SFLcane]

[tolakram]

0z Euro init

[Evil Jeremy]

GFDL, the east-most outlier, made a big west shift, but is still offshore Florida's east coast.

[tolakram]

Init

[ROCK]

the EURO initiliazed with fat fingers....just a closed low over a large amount of real estate....

[tolakram]

Hits DR. Weatherbell higher rez shows this as well.

[tolakram]

[LarryWx]

The 0z Euro is much weaker than the 12Z Euro at the sfc and is weaker than the 0Z GFS at hour 24.

Edit: correction..SLP is about same as 12Z Euro but it is smaller and looks less impressive.

[tolakram]

30 hours, weak, north of Haiti.

[tolakram]

36h just off the NE coast of Cuba.

[LarryWx]

Based on hour 36, the 0Z Euro is looking to be going west of the 12Z Euro.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro hour 66: into the SE GOM just off SW FL. Weak.

[tolakram]

Weatherbell updates died.