ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Frank P]

NAVY NRL site vis loop:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

That is a great product.. thanks for sharing.

That is some serious shear in the GOM... dang

[FireRat]

Things are certainly looking better and better for South Florida in the sense that no hurricane is now the likely outcome. No doubt the mountains of Hispaniola will disrupt this storm's already weak circulation. The only way it could become a hurricane threat now is if were to miss hispaniola to the south and track into the Gulf more or less like Charley did back in 2004. The Gulf States are now the ones who really should pay attention IMO, including west Florida, just for the potential of this regenerating into a strong TS or weak hurricane.

These posts are simply my opinion, continue to refer to and watch the NHC forecasts closely.

[rolltide]

Seems to me that every time the convection starts to build close to the center Erika jogs to the wnw. Then the shear blows the convection to the east or southeast and center moves due west. Almost like a stair stepping motion.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Comradez]

Actually the most recent frames of sat imagery looks like she is gaining some latitude.

Not seeing it.

[stormlover2013]

doesn't matter I feel what shes doing, shes about to go POOF.......just my opinion its not a forecast

[deltadog03]

NAVY NRL site vis loop:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

Thank you! I don't see much latitude being gained there. I would almost potentially see this skirting the South side of the island

[Jevo]

If the current NHC track verifies and the center tracks over the West coast then if there is anything left at all, Florida's East coast will get the worst of it. It is an ugly thing with a big ole backside

[stormlover2013]

Its poof, its about to be gone, GFS is showing this now, and EURO has been showing gradually wreaking the last 2 days

[DrinknByTheBay]

Actually the most recent frames of sat imagery looks like she is gaining some latitude.

Not seeing it.

I see her at just under 18 latitude moving pretty much straight west (from 67-70 longitude). Hispanola isn't extremely long, she's running out of time to move north for it to make an impact. She's got two more longitude degrees to clear (to 72), then by the time she moves north (if she does) she will basically be in the Windward Passage.

[tropicwatch]

Actually the most recent frames of sat imagery looks like she is gaining some latitude.

Not seeing it.

I was wrong the last HH position they found it mostly west and a little south of the previous position.

[babycane]

If the current NHC track verifies and the center tracks over the West coast then if there is anything left at all, Florida's East coast will get the worst of it. It is an ugly thing with a big ole backside

Yeah this is what has me a little worried still. I feel like this is going to be a nonissue for the US soon but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't at all nervous about it.

Again, thoughts are with those really suffering from this. I'm worried about going without my a/c for a day or two, but there are many who lost loved ones. Really puts everything into perspective.

[wxman57]

Recon has found 4 centers so far. Erika definitely would not be upgraded to a TS if a plane flew out to check on a disturbance and found this. It may be hard for the DR to disrupt a non-existent circulation. I know, the NHC is keeping it a TS so that people will pay attention to it, as it does have the potential to cause some life-threatening flooding in the DR as it passes.

[fci]

Media Hype this storm is making everyone panic for just some rain and a little wind lol. Just an Opinion not a forecast.

What "media hype" are you referring to?
The "stay aware of what's going on in case we get a Hurricane or life threatening conditions" hype?
Seems like pretty good work by the media to me!

[mitchell]

The problem is that the NHC needed to show the cone with a Cat 1 over several days, and now that the outcome seems to be going in the other direction (thankfully) the public is still visualizing the cone of 2 or 3 days ago...

Agree. To my way of thinking, storms like this demonstrate the advantages of showing a cone whose shape actually reflects the level of track uncertainty. 36 hours ago, the cone did not include any part of the GOM, because the forecast track was up east side of the Bahamas, and because of the standard cone width for 4-5 days out. If the level of uncertainty is higher, then why not include that factor in the cone shape, or simply have no cone at all past X days, if the level of uncertainty is too high.

[Jevo]

Awwwww man, He's lurkin around

[JPmia]

[quote="wxman57"]Recon has found 4 centers so far. Erika definitely would not be upgraded to a TS if a plane flew out to check on a disturbance and found this. It may be hard for the DR to disrupt a non-existent circulation. I know, the NHC is keeping it a TS so that people will pay attention to it, as it does have the potential to cause some life-threatening flooding in the DR as it passes.

Yeah I suppose once it passes the DR it can pick which of the four centers it wants to use going forward.

[Stormcenter]

I'm still not buying it. IMO

Its poof, its about to be gone, GFS is showing this now, and EURO has been showing gradually wreaking the last 2 days

[wxman57]

Erika will certainly survive as a disturbance after passing the DR & Cuba. There's a chance it could be a TD or weak TS in the eastern Gulf Sunday night through Tuesday morning. Squalls would be east of any low-level center, probably impacting the Florida Peninsula.

[Steve H.]

I want to see what she (it) looks like after passing the Greater Antilles. Then we can call the fat lady. Until then, I am keeping an eye on her.

[KQ]

So, if I am getting the gist of what I am reading here.... It is unlikely to survive the DR track and what is left is going to head up the west coast of Florida? Those of us on the east coast will get wet, but that is about it?


Not a prediction, just a question for those that know a lot more than I do.