ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2301 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:08 am

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2302 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:08 am

wow the EURO goes back to the run it had a few days ago... :lol:
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2303 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:09 am

ROCK wrote:wow the EURO goes back to the run it had a few days ago... :lol:

Which means?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2304 Postby HurriGuy » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:09 am

tolakram wrote:Weatherbell updates died. :(


For whatever reason, they stall at hour 42 every night
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2305 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:11 am

AutoPenalti wrote:
ROCK wrote:wow the EURO goes back to the run it had a few days ago... :lol:

Which means?


into the EGOM after going over FL...
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2306 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:12 am

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2307 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:14 am

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2308 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:17 am

:uarrow: not much to look at....rain maker
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2309 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:18 am

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2310 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:20 am

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2311 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:21 am

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2312 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:22 am

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2313 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:22 am

I am off to bed.
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#2314 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:26 am

So literally every model ended up being wrong by several hurricane categories within 5-6 days, that's pretty bad...

Anyone able to see the Euro's upper air data as to whether or not there will be alot of shear? Or will it just be that the circulation is unable to fully recover after moving over the mountains?
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#2315 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:27 am

Well tonight's 0Z GFS and EURO runs both show Erika to be weaker storm and also enough ridging in place to move the cyclone into the Eastern GOM to a landfall near Apalachicola/Big Bend as a weak TS, where shear will probably a big issue in response of an trough in the NW Gulf near Texas at the end of 120 hr.

So weaker and farther west both runs. Quite a change in this run cycle, even compared to last night's 0Z runs from both models.
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#2316 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:35 am

The models still may be underplaying the intensity . I may be wrong , but for some reason I just feel uneasy about this the next 36 hours. Hopefully, the 0Z run cycle for GFS and EURO may be right and we will not be dealing with a strong cyclone in a few days, with the exception of being a messy rain maker, which is a great thing for areas of Southeast Florida in particular who really need it.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2317 Postby HurriGuy » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:37 am

tolakram wrote:Weatherbell updates died. :(


For whatever reason, they stall at hour 42 every night
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2318 Postby drezee » Fri Aug 28, 2015 4:47 am

drezee wrote:
drezee Posted: Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:44 am wrote: Based on recon, I almost feel like Erika has an elongated trough axis to the SW with an eddy "LLC" attached. She better get it right before the shear comes back. This is not a robust structure to tackle shear, let alone Hispaniola.


I think my post rains very true this AM...the Columbian heat low is abnormally strong this year. The easterlies are forcing convergence and thus thunderstorms, but relative pressures to the south will continue to try to open Erika. The physics and heat transfer will not allow the LLC to get away from that hot tower to the South. The models are clueless on this interaction. They will be until the other side of the Hispaniola. Funny thing is we are sampling the upstream Synoptics with recon, but ignore a major influence to the South.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2319 Postby N2FSU » Fri Aug 28, 2015 4:56 am

06z GFS initialized

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2320 Postby N2FSU » Fri Aug 28, 2015 4:57 am

06z GFS; +24hr

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