Global model runs discussion

[KWT]

A very interesting run from the 06z, we are certainly getting to the time of year where the CV region should start to be producing systems that could develop in the MDR zone, so its certainly possible something like that could happen.

[gatorcane]

Current pattern means its going to be very very difficult to get a US landfall, probably the best way is a weak system makes it to neasr the Bahamas and explodes just at the same time as some brief ridging comes in, but the pattern is TROUGHY in a big way, just loike last yeaer, in fact almost a clone of last year.

Right certainly looks that way. But the heart of the CV season is still about 3-4 weeks away, and the long-wave pattern can change by then.

And even if it does not, all it takes is one of those CV storms slipping through at the right time.....it just takes one.

[BigA]

The long range GFS shows a robust subtropical ridge, as shown by the fantasy storms taking Carib and GOM tracks. Obviously the aggregate of many runs is what to look for.

[ConvergenceZone]

Current pattern means its going to be very very difficult to get a US landfall, probably the best way is a weak system makes it to neasr the Bahamas and explodes just at the same time as some brief ridging comes in, but the pattern is TROUGHY in a big way, just loike last yeaer, in fact almost a clone of last year.

Yea, i was wondering the same thing yesterday morning KWT. August may be a pretty quiet month for the USA. I still roll my eyes at the prediction before the season started that we should have more landfalling hurricanes this year I mean, what are they basing that off of? and where is it?

So far the supporting evidence for that statement is not to be found.

But September and early October might still be active for the USA if the patterns change.

[HurricaneFan]

Current pattern means its going to be very very difficult to get a US landfall, probably the best way is a weak system makes it to neasr the Bahamas and explodes just at the same time as some brief ridging comes in, but the pattern is TROUGHY in a big way, just loike last yeaer, in fact almost a clone of last year.

But how will that pattern affect the Lesser Antilles?

[cycloneye]

12z GFS develops the wave behind the one that is just off the African coast despicting it as a real long tracker that develops down the road in the long range.

8/6/11 loop of 12z GFS

[cycloneye]

12z GFS develops the wave behind the one that is just off the African coast despicting it as a real long tracker that develops down the road in the long range.

8/6/11 loop of 12z GFS

Look at where this run ends with this developing system.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[OuterBanker]

Troughs are always here this time of year. First the Bermuda high is progged to retrograde west in the next two weeks. Models are also now showing a major trough split in a couple weeks which would allow a passage to the east coast. Of course as always it's a matter of timing. Will there be anything out there when all this happens.

[OuterBanker]

LOL Cycloneye. Geeze I was writing the post when you were posting yours. Deja Vu. Boy do I hope that is wrong.

[ConvergenceZone]

cycloneye, this question is only for entertainment/speculative reasons, but approx what Cat level is that storm that
the GFS is showing with that type of pressure?

Again, I know it's days and days away and there will be tons of changes, but I'm just curious

[cycloneye]

cycloneye, this question is only for entertainment/speculative reasons, but approx what Cat level is that storm that
the GFS is showing with that type of pressure?

Again, I know it's days and days away and there will be tons of changes, but I'm just curious

Well,if you see 981 mbs in a model run, double it and you have a cat 3. I remember when GFS had Dean as a 1007 mb low.

[cycloneye]

The wave now at WestCentral Africa behind the one that is just off the African Coast is the one GFS has ending just off SC/NC coast.

[Rgv20]

0zUKMET hinting at a low pressure area by mid week around 30W. In my opinion something may try to get going but not until it reaches 50W to 55W by next weekend.




0zUKMET forecast valid for Wednesday 7pm CDT.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

12z GFS develops the wave behind the one that is just off the African coast despicting it as a real long tracker that develops down the road in the long range.

8/6/11 loop of 12z GFS

Look at where this run ends with this developing system.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

Holy moly, still in fantasy land however, now that has my interest.

[dwsqos2]

There isn't much on the 12Z Euro unfortunately.

[cycloneye]

Discussion from the San Juan NWS this afternoon where they are paying close attention to the models.

EXTENDED OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW RELATIVELY LOW
PRES (LESS THAN 1008MB) ACROSS THE ENTIRE TROPICS FROM THE 13TH OF
AUGUST ONWARD AND LATEST MJO PROGNOSIS INDICATE SIGNAL AMPLIFLYING
ACROSS THE INDIAN OCEAN WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS IN ACTIVE TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERIOD ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. ALL OF THESE SUGGEST WE ARE
ABOUT TO ENTER A HEIGHTENED PERIOD OF TC ACTIVIY ACROSS THE WRN
HEMISPHERE AFTER THE 10TH OF AUGUST.

[ConvergenceZone]

Discussion from the San Juan NWS this afternoon where they are paying close attention to the models.

EXTENDED OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW RELATIVELY LOW
PRES (LESS THAN 1008MB) ACROSS THE ENTIRE TROPICS FROM THE 13TH OF
AUGUST ONWARD AND LATEST MJO PROGNOSIS INDICATE SIGNAL AMPLIFLYING
ACROSS THE INDIAN OCEAN WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS IN ACTIVE TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERIOD ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. ALL OF THESE SUGGEST WE ARE
ABOUT TO ENTER A HEIGHTENED PERIOD OF TC ACTIVIY ACROSS THE WRN
HEMISPHERE AFTER THE 10TH OF AUGUST.

After the 10th of August huh? Well, rest while ya can then.....

[hurricaneCW]

Probably like last season, were going to enter a very active 4 week period of tropical activity, but we'll see any impacts is the real question or will it be exactly like last season where we had a few close calls but no impacts.

[Macrocane]

I'm not sure if the US can be so lucky, that would be 3 years without a hurricane impact and 6 years without a landfalling major hurricane, anyway let's remember that last year other parts of the basin had important damages from Atlantic cylones including Central America, the small and big Antilles, Bermuda and Canada so if it is like last year these regions may be affected again.

[cycloneye]

The trio by 18z GFS at medium range.