EPAC: HILDA- Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

It's okay post as much as you want and needed. What do you think those 90+ page ATL hurricane threads are full of anyway?

Usually discussion and commentary instead of repetitive jumbles of numbers and symbols that are meaningless to casual readers.

That's because of the abundant amount of recon, bouy data, and a lot of users posting their observations.

Other than that, it's filled with repetitive posts about wobbles, the storm looking like it's moving differently, new hot towers etc.

[Yellow Evan]

Hilda is certainly quite a strong hurricane. Fortunately for Hawaii, it should be very weak by the time it arrives in the area. Perhaps some rain and breezy conditions at most.

Seems to have been moving south of the forecast points for most of today.

Been noticing a WNW wobble in recent frames.

[Yellow Evan]

Cloud tops warming, eye cooling. This has peaked, at least for now. What a run this was though. Something to remember.

[Kingarabian]

Cloud tops warming, eye cooling. This has peaked, at least for now. What a run this was though. Something to remember.

Well shear is too low right for me to say it peaked. We'll see.

[Yellow Evan]

Why is the CPHC director doing a Dvorak fix? Interesting.

TXPN41 PHFO 090008
TCSNP1

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0008 UTC SUN AUG 09 2015

A. Hurricane Hilda.

B. 08/2330Z.

C. 13.8°N.

D. 143.9°W.

E. Goes-15.

F. T5.5/6.0/d1.0/24 hours.

G. Eir/ir/vis.

H. Remarks: Eye pattern with EIR bd white shade eye > 30 nm yields an E number of 6.0 with an eye adj of -1.0 based on EIR bd black shade eye resulting in a cf/dt of 5.0. MET and PT are 5.5. FT based on met.

I. Addl positions none.

$$
EVANS

[CrazyC83]

Probably peaked at 18Z, although I think the intensity then will be bumped up.

[Kingarabian]

[WeatherGuesser]

Another multi-meg image. That's another reason why there's less traffic on these threads.

Links to oversized images work just as well and don't burn bandwidth for those on lesser connection or with limited plans unless they choose to view them.

[Kingarabian]

Another multi-meg image. That's another reason why there's less traffic on these threads.

Links to oversized images work just as well and don't burn bandwidth for those on lesser connection or with limited plans unless they choose to view them.

What are the rules exactly? I read the thread in regards to images and I haven't seen a clear admin or mod post about gifs.

Since 2009 you're the first person I've seen complain about them.

[WeatherGuesser]

Another multi-meg image. That's another reason why there's less traffic on these threads.

Links to oversized images work just as well and don't burn bandwidth for those on lesser connection or with limited plans unless they choose to view them.

What are the rules exactly? I read the thread in regards to images and I haven't seen a clear admin or mod post about gifs.

Since 2009 you're the first person I've seen complain about them.

I don't know if there IS a rule or not. But why would it matter? Why embed multi-meg images?

My personal rule of thumb is not to embed anything over 100K.

[Kingarabian]

Another multi-meg image. That's another reason why there's less traffic on these threads.

Links to oversized images work just as well and don't burn bandwidth for those on lesser connection or with limited plans unless they choose to view them.

What are the rules exactly? I read the thread in regards to images and I haven't seen a clear admin or mod post about gifs.

Since 2009 you're the first person I've seen complain about them.

I don't know if there IS a rule or not. But why would it matter? Why embed multi-meg images?

My personal rule of thumb is not to embed anything over 100K.

Most images from their sources are almost always half a mb. And these are hurricane pictures and unfortunately every frame counts if you want to see its current trends. Generally gifs are not solely used in EPAC storm threads, they're found in other threads as well. The reason why it seems like they're found here is because the Atlantic is dead and WPAC storms have their own subforum.

However until there's some clarification on what we can and what we can't post, there are options through your browser that block images from loading by default.

[Yellow Evan]

Let's get back on topic.



This has an interesting look. Although weakening, this has the look of a storm bombing out. As for the future, I'd expect little change in intensity in 12-24 hours as waters are warm and shear is low, followed by rapid weakening. Track will likely depend on how fast it decouples.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 10, 2015080900, , BEST, 0, 139N, 1440W, 115, 950, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 80, 70, 100, 1009, 175, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILDA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 10, 2015080900, , BEST, 0, 139N, 1440W, 115, 950, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 20, 50, 1009, 175, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILDA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 10, 2015080900, , BEST, 0, 139N, 1440W, 115, 950, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 10, 1009, 175, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILDA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,

115 knts is generous. I'm hoping the CPHC goes with like 105 knts, a little above Final T numbers from all agencies.

[Kingarabian]

Let's get back on topic

This has an interesting look. Although weakening, this has the look of a storm bombing out. As for the future, I'd expect little change in intensity in 12-24 hours as waters are warm and shear is low, followed by rapid weakening. Track will likely depend on how fast it decouples.

Yes and if you look it has a curved band again. That's why I posted that gif. Almost looks ready to RI again after weakening.

[Yellow Evan]

Let's get back on topic

This has an interesting look. Although weakening, this has the look of a storm bombing out. As for the future, I'd expect little change in intensity in 12-24 hours as waters are warm and shear is low, followed by rapid weakening. Track will likely depend on how fast it decouples.

Yes and if you look it has a curved band again. That's why I posted that gif. Almost looks ready to RI again after weakening.

It looks nice, just don't understand why the eye is so cool. If the eye can re-clear, some re-intensification is certainty not out out of the picture, but we'll see.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  HILDA       EP102015  08/09/15  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND   115   117   116   110   105    87    69    52    40    30    21   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LAND      115   117   116   110   105    87    69    52    40    30    21   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LGE mod   115   115   110   103    96    82    68    56    45    37    30    24    19
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         1     1     0     2     5    18    22    27    35    47    47    51    48
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     6     1    -2     0     1     2     4     6     4    -3    -1     1     0
SHEAR DIR         21   300   234   281   247   254   258   255   251   258   256   265   262
SST (C)         28.1  27.9  27.7  27.6  27.4  27.3  27.1  27.1  27.1  27.1  27.1  27.1  27.1
POT. INT. (KT)   146   143   141   140   137   136   133   133   132   132   132   132   132
200 MB T (C)   -50.7 -50.7 -51.1 -51.2 -50.7 -51.4 -51.2 -52.0 -52.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5
TH_E DEV (C)       7     6     6     6     6     6     7     7     7     7     8     8     8
700-500 MB RH     62    61    60    58    60    64    63    59    55    55    51    50    47
MODEL VTX (KT)    21    20    19    17    19    18    17    16    15    14    14    12     9
850 MB ENV VOR    32    49    44    46    32    31    23    18    29    20    17    11     6
200 MB DIV        57    46    38    37    60    73    76    55    44    25    15     1   -19
700-850 TADV       0     0     0     0     2     7    14    10     9     6     3     1     4
LAND (KM)       1307  1193  1079   984   890   720   601   501   423   367   328   283   212
LAT (DEG N)     13.9  14.4  14.8  15.3  15.7  16.6  17.5  18.3  19.0  19.7  20.4  20.7  20.8
LONG(DEG W)    144.0 145.0 145.9 146.7 147.4 148.7 149.5 150.2 150.8 151.3 151.8 152.4 153.3
STM SPEED (KT)    11    10     9     9     8     7     6     5     4     4     3     4     4
HEAT CONTENT      31    21    19    19    23    34    23    22    21    17    15    15    19


Notice the shear. That's 1 knot now and zero knots of shear in 12 hours. It's been a long time since I've seen shear this low. Still has 24 hours of great conditions and the easterly upper-level outflow channel has opened at last.

[Kingarabian]

The shear continues to drop and is now low for 36 hours. On WeatherUnderground a user had a post on how intensifying storms usually create low shear environments.

[CrazyC83]

Clouds look to be really cooling too...might be an ERC underway that we can't see with such a tiny eye.

[Yellow Evan]

Clouds look to be really cooling too...might be an ERC underway that we can't see with such a tiny eye.

This is why we need Recon. It's not so much for the true intensity, but for inner core dynamics.

[Yellow Evan]

The shear continues to drop and is now low for 36 hours. On WeatherUnderground a user had a post on how intensifying storms usually create low shear environments.

That is true (as I noted during Guillermo), but I think this storm is too small to do such. I don't see any signs of it trying to do so.