ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

With that spin and red IR I don't see anything to stop development. Don't know what's inhibiting it right now. And it's in category 3 Danny's wake.



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I think 98L is its own worst enemy right now due to the forward speed. If it slows down it will really get stacked and takeoff.

SFT

correct,

we saw this a few years ago where it seemed like everything was moving 15+ through the deep tropics...no wonder the last 10 years has been tough...shear, forward motion, dry air, huge east coast trough..one of these days folks, watch out, nature can be very cruel when it comes to the law of averages

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO= 90%/90%

Thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system located
about 825 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become a little
better organized today, although satellite wind data today suggest
that the system has not yet developed a fully closed surface
circulation. Recent reports from a NOAA buoy indicate that the low
is producing winds to tropical-storm-force, and only a small
increase in organization would result in the formation of a tropical
storm as the system moves westward near 20 mph. Interests in the
Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
Additional information on this low can be found in high seas
forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[SouthDadeFish]

Basically the NHC is waiting for some sort of ASCAT pass or buoy to show the circulation is closed. There is enough convection and strong enough winds for classification to go straight to Erika provided a closed surface circulation exists.

[jlauderdal]

you have evidence of a closed surface circulation?

No, I don't. I have since backtracked from what I said after the lack of evidence of a closed sfc circ (west winds) was noted. I spoke too soon. I wish we had a buoy further south![/quote]

no worries, the system will be in recon range soon with that speed..we have seen some damn good looking systems on IR that weren't closed and had 35knot winds when recon arrived...its pretty simple, if it isnt closed it isnt getting classified...we have seen them out there trying their hardest to close off systems and when they fail its back to the base and the invest continues

[jlauderdal]

Basically the NHC is waiting for some sort of ASCAT pass or buoy to show the circulation is closed. There is enough convection and strong enough winds for classification to go straight to Erika provided a closed surface circulation exists.

if they dont classify this thing soon this board is going to explode...peeps getting greedy in an el nino year

[LarryWx]

Basically the NHC is waiting for some sort of ASCAT pass or buoy to show the circulation is closed. There is enough convection and strong enough winds for classification to go straight to Erika provided a closed surface circulation exists.

Do you or does anyone else know if there any other buoys that it will come close enough to on its track before recon gets there? I'd especially like to see it pass a little to the north of a buoy to help look for west winds.

[TheStormExpert]

Basically the NHC is waiting for some sort of ASCAT pass or buoy to show the circulation is closed. There is enough convection and strong enough winds for classification to go straight to Erika provided a closed surface circulation exists.

When does the next ASCAT pass come out?

[AutoPenalti]

you have evidence of a closed surface circulation?
No, I don't. I have since backtracked from what I said after the lack of evidence of a closed sfc circ (west winds) was noted. I spoke too soon. I wish we had a buoy further south!

no worries, the system will be in recon range soon with that speed..we have seen some damn good looking systems on IR that weren't closed and had 35knot winds when recon arrived...its pretty simple, if it isnt closed it isnt getting classified...we have seen them out there trying their hardest to close off systems and when they fail its back to the base and the invest continues

Looks like it won't close anytime soon at the rate it's going.

[abajan]

TS watches for the leeward islands

ok...but they havent even declared a td or ts

Why wait until declaration of a TD or TS? Due to the quick forward speed, it would certainly be prudent to start issuing watches. Remember, according to the definition on this NHC page, a watch means that the stated conditions (TS or hurricane, as the case may be) are possible, not necessarily expected.

[Hammy]

Basically the NHC is waiting for some sort of ASCAT pass or buoy to show the circulation is closed. There is enough convection and strong enough winds for classification to go straight to Erika provided a closed surface circulation exists.

When does the next ASCAT pass come out?

Looks like possibly around midnight

[MGC]

The 20mph forward speed is holding back the west wind getting established. Danny was moving much slower so closing off the circulation was easy for Danny. Several years ago a disturbance with strong mid level circulation moved through the islands quickly like 98L. You could have sworn it was a TC. The HH could not find the west wind till it moved into the Caribbean. Same thing could happen here.

[wxman57]

When does the next ASCAT pass come out?

Check the website below. Look at the TOP map (Ascending pass). See how there is wind data offshore Spain now? Those strips of coverage are expanding westward. The satellite orbits the Earth about every 90 minutes. That last strip (to Spain) was at around 2047 UTC (Purple numbers at the bottom if you click on the area near Spain). It's going to take about 3 more passes to reach 98L. Or, 98L will fall between two of the passes and we have to wait for tomorrow morning on the Descending Pass.

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php

[caribsue]

TS watches for the leeward islands

ok...but they havent even declared a td or ts

Why wait until declaration of a TD or TS? Due to the quick forward speed, it would certainly be prudent to start issuing watches. Remember, according to the definition on this NHC page, a watch means that the stated conditions (TS or hurricane, as the case may be) are possible, not necessarily expected.

As a fellow Bajan, I agree with you Abajan. 98L has the pedal to the metal. I am hoping we will get some rain out of this

[drezee]

Buoy 41041 had 45mph sustained and 53mph gusts last hour With 40 minutes of Nearly TS SSW winds....looks closed now

[Nimbus]

The officials have been watching it same as we have, I'm not sure why they are delaying they could have declared a depression earlier.

The Asian stock markets have been more interesting than 98l.

[MGC]

98L will likely go straight to TS when upgraded......MGC

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 98, 2015082500, , BEST, 0, 144N, 469W, 40, 1003, LO

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Is there any SAL in the area of this storm? From comments, I am getting the idea that the only thing keeping this storm from taking off is it's forward speed. Is that a correct assumption at this time?

[gatorcane]

my opinion is that I don't really know what the NHC is waiting for. We have sustained convection, good rotation with evidence of an LLC, and a system moving 20mph with potential impacts to the Leewards in just a few days. Can we not pull the trigger and start putting up some advisories?!?

[JonathanBelles]

New post: http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/08/24/in ... h-for-now/

98L at the end of the post