ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

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floridasun78
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#241 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:19 pm

Bahama may see watch very soon
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#242 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:20 pm

Rut roh. Looks like 18z GFS into delmarva/southern Jersey as building surface and mid level ridge off the new england coast steer the storm into the coast. Helped by cutoff 500 mb over the SE US too.
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#243 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:21 pm

138 hours, that is no picnic either for Philly or New York:

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#244 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:22 pm

Sandy 2.0?
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#245 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:23 pm

WOW! Getting cold feet just looking at this GFS run.

108 hrs. :darrow:

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114 hrs. :darrow:

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#246 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:24 pm

Wait for the media storm to begin. Less than 5 days from now!
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#247 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:24 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Sandy 2.0?


this should be fully tropical unlike sandy. so the large impacts wont be as bad. but the localized impacts at initial landfall would be extreme then with flooding and surge as it rides the coast.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#248 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:26 pm

What's the GFS pressure down to at landfall? I see it upthread...need my darn glasses..976 mb from a global..wow.
Last edited by ronjon on Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#249 Postby hurricanekid416 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:28 pm

Man this insane, im in delaware and im pretty much the only person around that knows that this threat is possible in a few days, in the gfs scenario this could be as bad as sandy with less preparation and so far little acknowldgement from the media
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#250 Postby tatertawt24 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:29 pm

If these models were to actually pan out, it would be the worst hurricane in DC history by FAR.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#251 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:29 pm

ronjon wrote:What's the GFS pressure down to at landfall?


I would personally estimate low 950s given that the last offshore pressure was 948 and rising slowly.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#252 Postby blp » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:30 pm

Wow... That would be historic and horrific. Did you see the cyclonic loop?
Last edited by blp on Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#253 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:30 pm

tatertawt24 wrote:If these models were to actually pan out, it would be the worst hurricane in DC history by FAR.


Or Baltimore. Think of the inner harbor damage alone.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#254 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:33 pm

I think the GFS run will get a lot of METS attention now.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#255 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:34 pm

Wow, wow, WOW. I'm afraid we may be reaching a consensus here and the outcome looks terrifying. Anxious times ahead...
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#256 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:37 pm

want see how many of the ensemble members come into alignment. 12z they were all over the place.
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Re:

#257 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:40 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:want see how many of the ensemble members come into alignment. 12z they were all over the place.


I wanna see the Euro operational run jump on board too!
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#258 Postby YoshiMike » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:53 pm

I'm in southbury CT so this is worrying me. Even if it doesn't directly hit me it could still drop trees and knock out power. Is it still too early to tell if it's gonna be a left hooked or go out towards east MA/ME?
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#259 Postby tatertawt24 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:53 pm

ronjon wrote:
tatertawt24 wrote:If these models were to actually pan out, it would be the worst hurricane in DC history by FAR.


Or Baltimore. Think of the inner harbor damage alone.


I live in Fredericksburg, and the fact that Isabel is the worst most people can remember is kind of terrifying. :lol: It's always about "THE POWER OUTAGES!!!" and it's one of those things where you just kinda shake your head. It would be a huge wakeup call and I'm afraid the death toll would be pretty high, borrowing a mandatory evac.

**NOT saying this is going to happen AT ALL. But this has presented a good opportunity to bring up how unprepared Delmarva is.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#260 Postby Siker » Tue Sep 29, 2015 6:04 pm

Purely by pressure, HWRF has this as a major by mid-tomorrow night, Cat 4 by Thursday evening.
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