SPAC: PAM - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

You do the opposite over the WPAC.

[talkon]

Pam is officially a sub-900 mb cyclone!

EDIT : This pressure makes Pam the second most intense storm in the SPAC, after Zoe at 890mb

HURRICANE WARNING 031 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 13/1302 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE [899HPA] CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5
SOUTH 168.7 EAST AT 131200 UTC. POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 17.5S 168.7E AT 131200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 08 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 135 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 90 KNOTS
BY 141200 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 20.1S 169.4E AT 140000 UTC
AND NEAR 23.4S 171.4E AT 141200 UTC

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 030.

[Alyono]

given the obs from Port Vila, I believe Dvorak overestimated this, much like Rammasun in the Philippines last year. I have not seen anything from Port Vila more than moderate TS sustained. Pressure seemed to bottom at the official station around 965mb

[xtyphooncyclonex]

given the obs from Port Vila, I believe Dvorak overestimated this, much like Rammasun in the Philippines last year. I have not seen anything from Port Vila more than moderate TS sustained. Pressure seemed to bottom at the official station around 965mb

Pressure according to actual residents (iCyclone members) through a barometer was exactly, not estimated, at 942.1 mb and is now rising. Pam also is reported to have a very tight wind and pressure gradient, making the real deepest pressure in the eye much lower. To justify my statement, the strongest part of the storm came just 3 hours ago.... Pressure went down rapidly in a short period of time, and that the storm did not accelerate - just resumed its movement at a snail pace.

Proof

8:30 pm Friday (Vanuatu): OK, we're *really* getting to the moment of truth here. Cyclone PAM's center is inching closer to Port Vila, and yet our members there aren't reporting anything too crazy yet. This reminds me of Cat-5 Super Typhoon HAIYAN. It looked *huge* on satellite imagery, but we didn't get the crazy-scary winds until the center was almost on top of us. The energy was focused in a very small area at the surface. PAM seems to be molded from the same clay.

[Alyono]

given the obs from Port Vila, I believe Dvorak overestimated this, much like Rammasun in the Philippines last year. I have not seen anything from Port Vila more than moderate TS sustained. Pressure seemed to bottom at the official station around 965mb

Pressure according to actual residents (iCyclone members) through a barometer was exactly, not estimated, at 942.1 mb and is now rising.

at what elevation are those people located? If they are in the mountains, their barometers will be off if there is not a correction to SLP

[xtyphooncyclonex]

given the obs from Port Vila, I believe Dvorak overestimated this, much like Rammasun in the Philippines last year. I have not seen anything from Port Vila more than moderate TS sustained. Pressure seemed to bottom at the official station around 965mb

Pressure according to actual residents (iCyclone members) through a barometer was exactly, not estimated, at 942.1 mb and is now rising.

at what elevation are those people located? If they are in the mountains, their barometers will be off if there is not a correction to SLP

Actually, not specified. Most probably in between or if not, then probably over the coast. They are said to be on a solid hotel which may perhaps mean that they are close to the coast

[euro6208]

Why even compare this to mighty Haiyan?

No comparison at all...

[1900hurricane]

This is likely not popular opinion right now, but I feel like 140-145 kt is a good current intensity. Again, despite the very cold CDO which is driving ADT up a wall, I can't get past the coolness of the eye. Most SSHWS category 5s that I've looked at have eyes that IR can measure of at least 15*C. Pam's never even broke double digits and has for the most part been barely positive. Pam's convection has been superb,which is why I believe the current intensity is what I said, but this isn't the classic category 5 eye.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Why even compare this to mighty Haiyan?

No comparison at all...

First of all, Haiyan and Pam have a very small and minimal difference in pressure - by 4 mb... Second, full grey and very symmetrical cloud tops over the core. Third, 10-min sustained winds are at 250 km/h (135 kts) or close to 290 km/h (155-160 kts)

So you're saying PAM is nothing compared to Haiyan? Land reports contradict that.

I am annoyed of you bias and favor towards WPAC systems. Assuming that PAM isn't over the WPAC too? Also towards your favor of JTWC's forecasts, analysis, monitoring and prognosis.... That's a big mistake. Just because JTWC gave that certain estimate doesn't mean you would incorporate their predictions and base it ALWAYS on theirs. You're very conservative here yet mighty bullish over the WPAC and get so excited whenever you get typhoon warnings.

[euro6208]

This is likely not popular opinion right now, but I feel like 140-145 kt is a good current intensity. Again, despite the very cold CDO which is driving ADT up a wall, I can't get past the coolness of the eye. Most SSHWS category 5s that I've looked at have eyes that IR can measure of at least 15*C. Pam's never even broke double digits and has for the most part been barely positive. Pam's convection has been superb,which is why I believe the current intensity is what I said, but this isn't the classic category 5 eye.

Agreed on this...Cyclone Zoe back in 2002 looked even more impressive than this...see for yourselve...

[euro6208]

Why even compare this to mighty Haiyan?

No comparison at all...

First of all, Haiyan and Pam have a very small and minimal difference in pressure - by 4 mb... Second, full grey and very symmetrical cloud tops over the core. Third, 10-min sustained winds are at 250 km/h (135 kts) or close to 290 km/h (155-160 kts)

So you're saying PAM is nothing compared to Haiyan? Land reports contradict that.

Haiyan at 175-185 knots with only a pressure of 895? That's too high...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Why even compare this to mighty Haiyan?

No comparison at all...

First of all, Haiyan and Pam have a very small and minimal difference in pressure - by 4 mb... Second, full grey and very symmetrical cloud tops over the core. Third, 10-min sustained winds are at 250 km/h (135 kts) or close to 290 km/h (155-160 kts)

So you're saying PAM is nothing compared to Haiyan? Land reports contradict that.

Haiyan at 175-185 knots with only a pressure of 895? That's too high...

Haiyan's pressure is not too high. Don't be stubborn to the opinion of actual meteorologists. How can a typhoon attain such low pressure of sub-890 mb when encountering a mighty powerful STR, fast movement and small compact core size?

Anyway this is getting off topic.

If not then shut up when comparing or bragging about our storms

You're arguing and debating with someone MUCH younger than you.
Geez

[talkon]

RSMC Nadi forecast Pam to strengthen for the next 12 hrs to 140 kt 10-min, which would tie with Tip for highest 10-min winds.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A25 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 13/1420 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE [899HPA] CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S 168.7E AT 131200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT
08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 135 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 090 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 070 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 090 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 090 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD WITH EYE DISCERNABLE ON MTSAT EIR IMAGE.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PESISTENT. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH UPPER DIVERGENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD IN
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. PAM IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWARDS BY A
NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND FLOW. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO
200HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE
PATTERN WITH OW EYE AND COLD DARK GREY SURROUND, YEILDS DT=7.0,
MET=7.0,PT=6.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T7.0/7.0/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODEL HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 20.1S 169.4E MOV SSE AT 13 KT WITH 140
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 23.4S 171.4E MOV SSE AT 16 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 27.4S 174.7E MOV SSE AT 19 KT WITH 70
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 31.6S 178.2E MOV SSE AT 21K T WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 132000 UTC.

[Yellow Evan]

This is likely not popular opinion right now, but I feel like 140-145 kt is a good current intensity. Again, despite the very cold CDO which is driving ADT up a wall, I can't get past the coolness of the eye. Most SSHWS category 5s that I've looked at have eyes that IR can measure of at least 15*C. Pam's never even broke double digits and has for the most part been barely positive. Pam's convection has been superb,which is why I believe the current intensity is what I said, but this isn't the classic category 5 eye.

It probably did break double digits, but the ADT center fix was off.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Amazing

[euro6208]

Haiyan's pressure is not too high. Don't be stubborn to the opinion of actual meteorologists. How can a typhoon attain such low pressure of sub-890 mb when encountering a mighty powerful STR, fast movement and small compact core size?

Anyway this is getting off topic.

If not then shut up when comparing or bragging about our storms

You're arguing and debating with someone MUCH younger than you.
Geez

Well then stop quoting my post if you don't like what i have to say...That's all...

[Yellow Evan]

Why even compare this to mighty Haiyan?

No comparison at all...

First of all, Haiyan and Pam have a very small and minimal difference in pressure - by 4 mb... Second, full grey and very symmetrical cloud tops over the core. Third, 10-min sustained winds are at 250 km/h (135 kts) or close to 290 km/h (155-160 kts)

So you're saying PAM is nothing compared to Haiyan? Land reports contradict that.

Haiyan at 175-185 knots with only a pressure of 895? That's too high...

I agree that Haiyan was lower than 895, but still Pam isn't that far off IMO.

[cycloneye]

This is a very serious situation going on in those islands so we don't need bickering going on between members.You can have differences of opinion but do it with respect to others that may not agree with your point of view. Thank you for your cooperation.

[1900hurricane]

This is likely not popular opinion right now, but I feel like 140-145 kt is a good current intensity. Again, despite the very cold CDO which is driving ADT up a wall, I can't get past the coolness of the eye. Most SSHWS category 5s that I've looked at have eyes that IR can measure of at least 15*C. Pam's never even broke double digits and has for the most part been barely positive. Pam's convection has been superb,which is why I believe the current intensity is what I said, but this isn't the classic category 5 eye.

It probably did break double digits, but the ADT center fix was off.

I'm not so sure, especially since the center temperatures have been identical for CIMSS, JTWC, and Nadi ADTs for as long as the eye screening has been used for all three. Also, I could be remembering this wrong, but in the ADT user's guide on the CIMSS page, I believe it says it that it'll find the warmest pixel in the eye and report that regardless of center fix location. Not 100% on that last bit though. Anyway, it would be nice if I could grab the actual data points myself and see.

[1900hurricane]

Eyewall replacement may have started.