WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical

xtyphooncyclonex · #261 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:23 am

About the track, I'm still thinking of a Visayas hit. Again, models exaggerate the weakness and eastward displacement of the ridge. Sadly, the agencies follow them. Classic Case: Typhoon Bopha 2012 when it was forecast to recurve or move NW due to a passing trough, but because it got stronger it established its own track, accelerating W towards Central Mindanao. Lesson Learned: The stronger it gets, the more west it goes.

#262 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:24 am

Both the GFS & Euro indicate steady weakening after 48-72 hours, down to a low-end TS by the time it reaches the Philippines next weekend and dissipating shortly after. Seems reasonable. Greatest threat to the islands may be rainfall rather than wind or surge.

xtyphooncyclonex · #263 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:41 am

Agree

Well in terms of intensity, the models also do exaggerate weakening as a result of exaggerating the weakness in the ridge. If they did not exaggerate the ridge weakness, then it would go through a lower latitude through much more favorable conditions like much lower vertical wind shear.

xtyphooncyclonex · #264 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:46 am

Wow.

Eye

xtyphooncyclonex · #265 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:51 am

Exact opposite of last year:

We had Typhoon Faxai and TS Peipah, which the latter was supposed to be a typhoon

This year we have 2 cat 4 so far, with Higos and Maysak.

xtyphooncyclonex · #266 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 9:11 am

Agree with you spiral, maybe another 265° westerly turn.

Here is the most accurate forecast of Maysak. Anticipated the brief WSW jog, turn to the W then sudden WNW turn, and recognizing the strength and presence of the STR despite an eastward displacement and weakness.

#267 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 9:34 am

spiral wrote:Nah really it looks a mess 100 knts is over the top. It is what it is.

It's not a mess, just asymmetrical. Chances are when there's a well defined eye, it's 100 knots, though I note there's still some uncertainity as those winds may not be mixing down to the surface.

#268 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 9:38 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2015 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 9:05:49 N Lon : 144:29:25 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 954.8mb/112.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.1 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +2.8C Cloud Region Temp : -72.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 92km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 10.7 degrees

xtyphooncyclonex · #269 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 9:39 am

It is much stronger now. Probs 110-120 kts. Thick convection starting to cover W of the eye or eyewall. I am sure that we will have a major typhoon in the next JT update, as it will improve even more. I'm expecting a category 4 anytime tomorrow.

#270 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 9:45 am

Structure reminds me of Adrian 11.

dexterlabio · #271 Postby **dexterlabio** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 10:04 am

be it a TS or not when it reaches Luzon later this week, it would be a nice drought buster and ready the dams for the impending effects of El Nino...

Cyclenall · #272 Postby **Cyclenall** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 10:10 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Structure reminds me of Adrian 11.

What time frame of Adrian's life? I'm looking at my files for Adrian 11 and I don't really see any that resemble Maysak.

xtyphooncyclonex · #273 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 10:21 am

Well despite being a southern outlier, I'd agree and go with ECMWF/JMA.

(1) There is an evidently strong STR steering the system towards the west
(2) They have been remarkably consistent with their forecast
(3) They show a WNW turn after Maysak encounters a weakness in the ridge, yet they see the presence despite eastward displacement which is NOT ENOUGH to lead to a NW ward turn
(4) The actual track correlates well with their forecasts.
(5) The other agencies and models EXAGGERATE the weakness and displacement of the ridge, making them have a northward bias at later TAUs.

What are your thoughts guys?

#274 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 10:45 am

xtyphooncyclonex,moved your MAYSAK posts from the 99W thread to here.

#275 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 11:27 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2015 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 9:16:14 N Lon : 144:01:41 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 952.4mb/115.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +6.6C Cloud Region Temp : -74.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 92km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 10.9 degrees

dexterlabio · #276 Postby **dexterlabio** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 11:35 am

finally it's gotten that "mean" look...but bad news for those in Yap...

xtyphooncyclonex · #277 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 11:44 am

After slowing down and moving WNW, it should move WSW again. This may mean bad news for Yap, as it is likely they face the northern (stronger) quadrant of the storm.

#278 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 11:47 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2015 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 9:17:24 N Lon : 144:01:08 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 952.4mb/115.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +1.0C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 92km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 10.9 degrees

#279 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 1:04 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2015 Time : 171500 UTC
Lat : 9:26:28 N Lon : 143:50:39 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 950.2mb/117.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.4 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +1.9C Cloud Region Temp : -76.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 92km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 11.1 degrees

#280 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 1:40 pm

Up to 125kts.

04W MAYSAK 150330 1800 9.4N 143.7E WPAC 125 929

WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical

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