ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

[Tireman4]

So...we....wait....

[curtadams]

It's not a tropical cyclone by their definition and there have been a number of times there's been a clear low and a nice satellite presentation, but they've refused to upgrade because the low is broad (and this one is VERY broad). But it seems they could tag it a subtropical cyclone - that doesn't require a tight low, and then they could initiate the advisories everybody thinks are appropriate, including them. Is there some aspect that doesn't meet the subtropical designation?

[Wx_Warrior]

First squall line just through in Beaumont TX. Nice hard rain for 10 mins with some wind gusts.

[tolakram]

30 frame visible loop. Looks like it's organizing pretty quickly IMO. Speed it up for a better look.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-94&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&mapcolor=gray&numframes=30

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It's not a tropical cyclone by their definition and there have been a number of times there's been a clear low and a nice satellite presentation, but they've refused to upgrade because the low is broad (and this one is VERY broad). But it seems they could tag it a subtropical cyclone - that doesn't require a tight low, and then they could initiate the advisories everybody thinks are appropriate, including them. Is there some aspect that doesn't meet the subtropical designation?

There is nothing subtropical about 91L. Convection is firing over the center, and the upper-level low has been replaced by an anticyclone thanks to persistent latent heat release.

This is definitely a tropical cyclone.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

What are the winds with the storm currently? Im seeing some data come in at 53Kts from the recon.

[Tireman4]

What are the winds with the storm currently? Im seeing some data come in at 53Kts from the recon.

I saw 45 MPH, but do not quote me on that....

[drezee]

I really hope we do not have to play catch up with this one. One saying grace is the number of buoys in the area should help determine strength in the absence of recon. Buoy 42002 should be close, but winds have turned to the NNW so the center will likely track N of that position: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

This is just an observation but....we have
1. a tightening soon to be TC
2. clearly a developing Upper Anti-Cyclone in all quadrants
3. Going from 28C to 29C SSTs
4. into the one of the prime coasts for "ramp up" at the right angle to do so...

I would issue TS Warnings...just my opinion [insert disclaimer here]

[sphelps8681]

This just posted on our local news website:

WEATHER UPDATE: Information from Galveston County Office of Emergency conference call at 11:30 am.

Expect 5" to 8" of rain, 30 -- 40 mph winds, and about 4 feet flood levels over normal high tide. 4 am to 8 am tomorrow is expected to be the worst period.

Voluntary evacuation of Bolivar Peninsula is being issued effective noon today.

Expect Highway 87 to flood tomorrow morning and be impassible on the east side toward High Island. Expect mobility to be extremely limited on Bolivar Peninsula tomorrow.
The storm is not currently expected to interrupt ferry service between Bolivar and Galveston. However, that is not certain. State agencies have not given Galveston County OEM a clear answer. The ferry typically closes in the event of 4 ½ feet above normal tide or 50 mph winds. Note that both factors are currently predicted to be below but very close to those levels. The Coast Guard can also order closure on a discretionary basis. Please plan accordingly.
The storm is not currently expected to be a life safety event. But it is expected to impact mobility and potentially damage property in low-lying areas. If you are not in a position to ride out the storm for a day in a high and dry location, you should consider voluntarily evacuating.
If you have an RV or trailer, and it is located in an area prone to flooding, you should consider moving it off the Peninsula or otherwise onto high ground. Again, water is expected to be several feet above normal tide levels.
The storm should pass sometime Wednesday.

[lrak]

I'm getting a little concerned, CC TX hasn't had a direct hit in YEARS. It looks like the bottom part of the storm is taking over? Would that make my worries warranted or will this thing go north of our area?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
This posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

This is downright unacceptable why this is not a TS IMO.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated
the broad area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico this morning,
and found that the circulation was too poorly defined to qualify the
system as a tropical cyclone. However, thunderstorm activity
continues to become better organized this afternoon, and the low
will very likely become a tropical storm this afternoon or this
evening as it continues moving to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds with the low are estimated to be near 45
mph, and interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, tropical storm conditions are likely
along portions of the middle and upper Texas coast, and possible in
extreme southwestern Louisiana, tonight and Tuesday. The system is
also likely to bring heavy rainfall with possible flooding across
portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana. For additional
information, please see High Seas Forecasts and products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Franklin

[Aric Dunn]

We all remember Humberto and the trick it pulled in 12 hours..

[ROCK]

Quick observation on my part but it does look like 91L is getting its act together in a hurry. Shades of Humberto as it organized on approach. Got to think land friction aids in development. Just my 2 cents.

[Nederlander]

So let me get this straight... The NHC can't issue Watches/Warnings until the system is upgraded? Even if they expect it to be named within the next 12 hours? Seems to me that it should be more important to notify the public via watches/warnings when it's certain those conditions will be experienced in the next 24-48 hours rather than be politically correct on defining a tropical cyclone. Am I wrong here?

[Dave C]

The western part of the system is definitely improving, looking more circular instead of elongated.

[Hammy]

I'm having doubts at this point that they'll upgrade it at all if they say it doesn't qualify, as the models don't really show it getting any better organized than it currently is, and if we wait for the next plane (tomorrow correct?) it'll probably be inland by then.

[davidiowx]

So let me get this straight... The NHC can't issue Watches/Warnings until the system is upgraded? Even if they expect it to be named within the next 12 hours? Seems to me that it should be more important to notify the public via watches/warnings when it's certain those conditions will be experienced in the next 24-48 hours rather than be politically correct on defining a tropical cyclone. Am I wrong here?

I don't think you are wrong at all. I find it pretty pathetic they haven't issued watches/warnings yet. Many places of employment are probably waiting on this to make decisions. I would bet a lot of money this is named soon. They have to notify the public. Especially as this is strengthening rather quickly as it approaches. Storms under rapid intensification making landfall are very dangerous and often catch people off guard

[Tireman4]

Quick observation on my part but it does look like 91L is getting its act together in a hurry. Shades of Humberto as it organized on approach. Got to think land friction aids in development. Just my 2 cents.

Oh....my....gosh...Rock....where you been hiding you old rascal? LOL Glad to see you made it to the party. The refreshments are over by the dining room table. There is Hurricane Talk in the den. And yes, I agree...it is really getting organized...

[lrak]

The western part of the system is definitely improving, looking more circular instead of elongated.

What does that mean concerning the track? Would it make it more of a S. TX hit instead of what's been said about a middle or upper TX coast hit?

Thanks.