EPAC: GUILLERMO - Post-Tropical

#261 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 7:06 pm

Doesn't look too good right now.

#262 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 7:14 pm

AbcdeerHI wrote:what about outflow/subsidence from thunderstorms to east/northeast?

Might be trying to create its own environment to block the shear through that.

#263 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 7:22 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
AbcdeerHI wrote:what about outflow/subsidence from thunderstorms to east/northeast?

Might be trying to create its own environment to block the shear through that.

It's to shield from the dry air. Shear will penetrate through anything TC related.

#264 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 7:32 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
AbcdeerHI wrote:what about outflow/subsidence from thunderstorms to east/northeast?

Might be trying to create its own environment to block the shear through that.

It's to shield from the dry air. Shear will penetrate through anything TC related.

Idk, I've just seen it happen in the WPAC.

#265 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 7:39 pm

Still a hurricane.

#266 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 7:40 pm

TXPZ25 KNES 010027
TCSENP

A. 09E (GUILLERMO)

B. 01/0000Z

C. 12.7N

D. 135.5W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T4.0/4.5/W0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND THE
LATEST MHS DATA FROM NOAA-19 AT 2254Z SHOWED AN EROSION OF THE EYEWALL
IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE CENTER WAS BENEATH A WELL DEFINED CDO
MEASURING SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 1.75 DEGREES IN VISIBLE IMAGERY, WHICH
RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.0. PT AGREES AND MET IS ALSO 4.0 BASED ON SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...TURK

#267 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 7:50 pm

Folks at WeatherUnderground say it's tilted. Makes sense.

#268 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 7:52 pm

It's not consolidated. Now it may be trying to consolidate, but if it is, boy it's looking ugly now.

#269 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:02 pm

TAFB is 4.0.

#270 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:05 pm

Kingarabian wrote:TAFB is 4.0.

Nope

201508010000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1290N, 13550W, , 2, 102, 2, 960, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, HC, VI, 3, 5055 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T, CROSS CHECKED CLASSIFICATION USING EYE PATTERN AS WE

#271 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:08 pm

Umm.

EP, 09, 2015080100, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1355W, 90, 970, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 100, 60, 90, 1006, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GUILLERMO, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
EP, 09, 2015080100, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1355W, 90, 970, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 30, 40, 1006, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GUILLERMO, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
EP, 09, 2015080100, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1355W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 15, 20, 1006, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GUILLERMO, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,

#272 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:14 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Umm.

EP, 09, 2015080100, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1355W, 90, 970, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 100, 60, 90, 1006, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GUILLERMO, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
EP, 09, 2015080100, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1355W, 90, 970, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 30, 40, 1006, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GUILLERMO, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
EP, 09, 2015080100, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1355W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 15, 20, 1006, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GUILLERMO, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,

Eye is trying to show again so I think they'll wait and see. Regardless, I can see them leaving it at 90kts although I believe it's 85kts.

#273 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:19 pm

More south.

#274 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:22 pm

Kingarabian wrote:http://i.imgur.com/sFk8vgM.png

More south.

A little but the center position at 21z was way too far north.

#275 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:26 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:TAFB is 4.0.

Nope

201508010000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1290N, 13550W, , 2, 102, 2, 960, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, HC, VI, 3, 5055 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T, CROSS CHECKED CLASSIFICATION USING EYE PATTERN AS WE

Where does it show the dvorak rating?

#276 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:27 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:TAFB is 4.0.

Nope

201508010000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1290N, 13550W, , 2, 102, 2, 960, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, HC, VI, 3,5055 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T, CROSS CHECKED CLASSIFICATION USING EYE PATTERN AS WE

Where does it show the dvorak rating?

Bolded the Final T-number and italicized the currently intensity number.

From http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/fix/

#277 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:32 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Bolded the Final T-number and italicized the currently intensity number.

From http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/fix/

Thank you.

#278 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:35 pm

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  GUILLERMO   EP092015  08/01/15  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    90    92    93    92    89    83    78    71    66    61    56    51    49
V (KT) LAND       90    92    93    92    89    83    78    71    66    61    56    51    49
V (KT) LGE mod    90    93    93    89    85    76    71    68    66    64    61    58    55
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        11    10    11    13     9     7     7     9    10    15    16    15    22
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     6    10    11     7     9     5     5     3     0     0     2     2     0
SHEAR DIR        302   278   278   287   295   291   283   285   280   297   285   279   260
SST (C)         29.0  28.6  28.3  28.1  28.0  27.7  27.4  27.3  27.0  26.9  27.1  27.1  27.2
POT. INT. (KT)   157   153   149   146   145   141   137   136   133   132   134   133   134
200 MB T (C)   -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C)       9     9     8     8     8     8     8     8     7     7     7     6     7
700-500 MB RH     67    67    69    69    70    70    70    67    65    63    58    58    57
MODEL VTX (KT)    24    24    25    24    23    23    24    22    22    23    22    21    20
850 MB ENV VOR     4     6     1     1     3     7    29    33    41    44    52    44    45
200 MB DIV        85    50    22    26    29    20    22     7    30    29    17    -3     7
700-850 TADV      10    14    15    13    10     4     8     9     9    11    12     9     8
LAND (KM)       2186  2005  1826  1689  1552  1314  1106   948   794   626   408   253   127
LAT (DEG N)     12.9  13.3  13.6  14.0  14.4  15.1  15.8  16.5  17.4  18.2  18.7  19.2  19.7
LONG(DEG W)    135.5 137.2 138.8 140.0 141.2 143.3 145.1 146.4 147.6 149.0 151.0 152.4 153.6
STM SPEED (KT)    18    16    14    12    12    10     8     7     7     9     8     7     6
HEAT CONTENT      29    33    19    17    18    12    10    10    13    17    18    17    17

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18      CX,CY: -16/  5
  T-12 MAX WIND:  80            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  719  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   8.0 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   1.   0.  -2.  -7. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. -27.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG    -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -2.   0.   2.   3.   3.   2.   1.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12.
  PERSISTENCE            2.   3.   4.   4.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -8.  -9. -10. -10. -10.  -9.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   1.   0.  -1.   0.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.   0.   2.   4.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   7.   7.   6.   6.   5.   5.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   4.   5.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   3.   2.  -1.  -7. -12. -19. -24. -29. -34. -39. -41.

#279 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 9:23 pm

Has that mid-level shear look now. I've seen it with other storms, including Ana last year.

#280 Postby **Alyono** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 9:26 pm

mid level shear and that negative kelvin wave

EPAC: GUILLERMO - Post-Tropical

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