WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

On another note, we've tied the record for most CPAC names used in a year.

[Alyono]

shear appears to be increasing and not decreasing. This would give credence to the EC solution

[Alyono]

12Z MU shows weakening through the next 36 hours

[Yellow Evan]

6z HWRF



6z GFDL



0z UKMET

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

 1. TROPICAL STORM KILO
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 77          FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 78
       A. 22/1800Z                    A. 23/0600Z
       B. AFXXX 0203C KILO            B. AFXXX 0303C KILO
       C. 22/1530Z                    C. 23/0330Z
       D. 14.7N 158.6W                D. 15.6N 161.0W
       E. 22/1900 TO 22/2300Z         E. 23/0500 TO 23/0800Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000FT             F. SFC TO 10,000

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES.
    3. REMARKS: FLIGHT ONE WILL INCLUDE A SYNOPTIC TRACK ALONG
       23.0N FROM 166.0W TO 159.0W AFTER THE FIXES.


[Yellow Evan]

Moving a little slower than expected compared to yesterday's 18z GFS run.

[Alyono]

through 87 hours, weaker, but northeast of the previous run.

Could a weaker system end up being a greater threat as the strong upper level easterlies won't push this quite as far west before it hits the trough? Just running things through my mind

[Yellow Evan]

Through 108 hours. Starts to intensify here.

[srainhoutx]

An observation here on Waikiki Beach this morning. Surface winds are out of the N and NE with a feathered anticyclonic cirrus canopy evident SE of Oahu that is fairly obvious. There are a lot of tourists in Honolulu at this time and the hotels are very full. In speaking with some of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron crew, they as well as the CPHC forecasters want to get everything as correct as humanly possible regarding the future track and intensity of Kilo. Many major decisions need to be made in advance for public safety and moving assets to safety if Kilo indeed threatens Hawaii. Currently Tropical Storm conditions are forecast for Honolulu/Waikiki on Monday possibly deteriorating further Monday night into Tuesday.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS: Weaker, but closer.

[TheStormExpert]

Still a hurricane correct?

[Alyono]

looking at the first light vis, I do not think this has a closed circulation

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: Still a hurricane correct?

In that run, yes.

[Yellow Evan]

TPPZ01 PGTW 211525

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03C (KILO)

B. 21/1430Z

C. 12.95N

D. 151.50W

E. FIVE/GOES15

F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
21/1140Z 12.52N 151.08W AMS2
21/1237Z 12.90N 151.28W SSMI


CHAPPOTIN

[srainhoutx]

High resolution visible and IR imagery suggest Kilo have turned a bit more N the past hour or two versus the WNW track. If this track is correct, it could bring the center of Kilo a bit closer to Hawaii than the guidance indicates. Will monitor the trends throughout the day and see if this a true change in track or a temporary motion. Aloha.

[Yellow Evan]

Center looks 13.5N 125.2W (or 13.5N 152.8W) IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1750 UTC FRI AUG 21 2015

A. Tropical storm kilo.

B. 21/1730Z.

C. 13.2°N.

D. 153.0°W.

E. Goes-15.

F. T2.5/3.0/d0.5/24 hrs.

G. Vis/ir/eir.

H. Remarks: Shear pattern > than 45 nm from deep convection yields a DT of 2.5. MET is 2.5 as is PT. Final T based on DT.

I. Addl positions none.

$$

Burke.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF initialized ok maybe a little too far east. Through 162 hours and show it weaker but still re-curves it but well away from the islands and later re-builds the ridge.

[Kingarabian]

Notes from the 12z suite:

12z GFS is weaker but strengthens this as it nears Kauai. Super close call with Kauai. Probably 975mb at closest approach.

12z Euro still safely misses Hawaii but this time it's showing a trough thus recurves it compared to 00z Euro. Also stronger as it rccurves.

It's interesting and I can't believe it's happening, but the Euro is flip flopping a lot more than the GFS.

The 12z HWRF and GFDL are probably not reliable in track, but they also shifted much east compared to their respective 06z and 00z runs.

[Kingarabian]

through 87 hours, weaker, but northeast of the previous run.

Could a weaker system end up being a greater threat as the strong upper level easterlies won't push this quite as far west before it hits the trough? Just running things through my mind

It's hard to know because then the Euro wouldn't be showing the system tracking that far west. I'm not sure if the Euro is showing the system being too weak to feel the trough or the trough is delayed compared to the GFS.