EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

30 frame live loop as the sun sets. Time sensitive.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-170&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

[CrazyC83]

This may be historic, folks. I don't remember a storm EVER strengthening this much in the EPAC so close to landfall.

[tatertawt24]

Linda is probably scared now...although sub-900 is unlikely due to the pressure gradient.

Linda isn't scared -- I doubt it drops down that far. If it actually dropped to 902 mb with that gradient it would probably be 180 mph winds, which isn't impossible of course, but exceedingly rare even in the best of conditions.

I don't think Linda should be scared... but, if conditions remain favorable, 1959 might.

[TheStormExpert]

This may be historic, folks. I don't remember a storm EVER strengthening this much in the EPAC so close to landfall.

I thought Rick(2009) did right before quickly weakening?

[supercane4867]

Linda is probably scared now...although sub-900 is unlikely due to the pressure gradient.

Linda isn't scared -- I doubt it drops down that far. If it actually dropped to 902 mb with that gradient it would probably be 180 mph winds, which isn't impossible of course, but exceedingly rare even in the best of conditions.

I don't think Linda should be scared... but, if conditions remain favorable, 1959 might.

Both pressure and windspeed of Linda are purely estimated. We will know the truth as recon departs in 6 hours

[tatertawt24]

Linda is probably scared now...although sub-900 is unlikely due to the pressure gradient.

Linda isn't scared -- I doubt it drops down that far. If it actually dropped to 902 mb with that gradient it would probably be 180 mph winds, which isn't impossible of course, but exceedingly rare even in the best of conditions.

I don't think Linda should be scared... but, if conditions remain favorable, 1959 might.

Both pressure and windspeed of Linda are purely estimated. We will know the truth as recon departs in 6 hours

Yep... just looked up Linda and realized nothing was ever confirmed. I was about to edit my post.

[CrazyC83]

Linda is probably scared now...although sub-900 is unlikely due to the pressure gradient.

Linda isn't scared -- I doubt it drops down that far. If it actually dropped to 902 mb with that gradient it would probably be 180 mph winds, which isn't impossible of course, but exceedingly rare even in the best of conditions.

I don't think Linda should be scared... but, if conditions remain favorable, 1959 might.

Both pressure and windspeed of Linda are purely estimated. We will know the truth as recon departs in 6 hours

Linda was never close to landfall though, and I don't believe it was ever visited by Recon. In the EPAC, they only bring flights in for landfall threats (and continuous Recon is unheard of, maybe a California threat would do that).

[tolakram]

23:15z

[supercane4867]

At least for entertainment, Patricia has broke the ceiling of 8.2.1 ADT

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 942.9mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.6 8.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +4.2C Cloud Region Temp : -80.8C

Scene Type : EYE

[NDG]

Patricia looks incredible tonight!!

[Ntxw]

Water vapor loop

[Cyclenall]

Cat 5

Its a surprise to absolutely no one. Yesterday evening it had something to it that yelled historic hurricane.

Time to start comparing individual frames to Hurricane Linda from 1997. Rick had a bit of a different structure from Pat.

[CrazyC83]

If that T8.2 was a real estimate, winds would be 175 kt.

[northjaxpro]

What an awesome, classic satellite appearance of a Category 5 tropical cyclone!!!! Patricia is about as impressive as a tropical cyclone can get. The eye as I pointed out earlier is definitely shrinking, now probably only about 5 miles in diameter now.

[tolakram]

I was looking at the JSL IR view. Will be pretty good at showing any strengthening tonight IMO.

[cycloneye]

Josh is chasing Patricia close to the west of Manzanillo.

Josh Morgerman ‏@iCyclone · 5m5 minutes ago  La Huerta, Jalisco
At beachside resort in Punta Perula, #Jalisco. Dead calm. Sickeningly humid. Brilliant lightning. Thundering waves. #Hurricane #PATRICIA

[TheStormExpert]

Patricia sure is a incredible storm. Even more incredible since we finally got a Cat.5 hurricane in the East Pacific! Unfortunately it will make landfall at this point along Mexico's West Coast(hopefully at a MUCH weaker state) but that seems somewhat unlikely. Folks there in Mexico better be prepping as stated earlier for a catastrophic Cat.4/Cat.5 hurricane.

[TheStormExpert]

Josh is chasing Patricia close to the west of Manzanillo.

Josh Morgerman ‏@iCyclone · 5m5 minutes ago  La Huerta, Jalisco
At beachside resort in Punta Perula, #Jalisco. Dead calm. Sickeningly humid. Brilliant lightning. Thundering waves. #Hurricane #PATRICIA

Could be worse than Odile if trends continue sadly.

[tatertawt24]

Lightning isn't a good sign for a future weakening trend.

[Kingarabian]

Man. Cant. Get. Enough. Of. Satellite. Loops.

Recon will likely be sampling it in its peak state. Hope the pilot is careful and they sample the storm safely. Looks like it will be the strongest storm to be sampled since Wilma?