ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030025
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 30 20151003
001630 2520N 07253W 6963 03070 9943 +100 +078 168045 048 038 003 00
001700 2522N 07253W 6959 03074 9928 +112 +077 166042 043 039 001 00
001730 2524N 07253W 6963 03070 9928 +114 +074 165043 043 037 001 00
001800 2526N 07253W 6961 03076 9928 +116 +072 164045 045 037 001 00
001830 2528N 07253W 6962 03076 9931 +113 +074 163045 046 038 001 00
001900 2531N 07253W 6962 03078 9936 +110 +077 164046 047 037 002 00
001930 2533N 07253W 6961 03081 9940 +110 +071 160045 047 035 002 03
002000 2535N 07253W 6954 03089 9942 +108 +065 157039 043 032 002 03
002030 2535N 07255W 6962 03079 9943 +107 +078 162039 040 032 002 03
002100 2534N 07257W 6964 03076 9937 +110 +081 163042 043 033 002 00
002130 2533N 07258W 6961 03080 9930 +115 +077 164041 042 035 001 00
002200 2532N 07259W 6963 03074 9930 +115 +077 164039 041 036 001 00
002230 2531N 07301W 6961 03079 9927 +115 +076 162038 039 038 002 00
002300 2530N 07302W 6963 03074 9926 +116 +078 162038 038 039 001 00
002330 2529N 07303W 6965 03071 9942 +103 +081 162040 040 040 002 00
002400 2528N 07305W 6959 03078 9942 +102 +079 162038 040 042 001 00
002430 2526N 07306W 6962 03074 9936 +106 +077 161039 039 042 002 00
002500 2525N 07307W 6962 03071 9931 +110 +074 159039 039 043 002 00
002530 2524N 07308W 6961 03071 9930 +109 +082 159039 040 045 002 00
002600 2523N 07310W 6960 03073 9926 +110 +074 160041 042 047 001 00
$$
;

[AutoPenalti]

This thing is being squashed hardcore.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030036
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 31 20151003
002630 2522N 07311W 6961 03062 9915 +114 +071 159044 045 046 002 00
002700 2521N 07312W 6958 03059 9908 +115 +071 158044 045 047 001 00
002730 2519N 07313W 6964 03050 9907 +111 +072 157044 045 046 002 00
002800 2518N 07315W 6960 03053 9903 +113 +074 157043 043 045 000 00
002830 2517N 07316W 6967 03042 9903 +111 +073 157044 045 045 001 00
002900 2516N 07317W 6960 03050 9904 +109 +079 156043 044 044 002 00
002930 2515N 07319W 6966 03039 9898 +111 +074 152046 046 045 002 00
003000 2514N 07320W 6961 03043 9893 +114 +072 150045 046 046 002 00
003030 2513N 07321W 6961 03043 9899 +109 +080 149044 044 048 002 00
003100 2511N 07322W 6961 03040 9895 +109 +080 147045 046 047 002 00
003130 2510N 07324W 6965 03034 9897 +105 +086 148050 050 047 002 00
003200 2509N 07325W 6959 03039 9891 +109 +082 145051 052 047 002 00
003230 2508N 07326W 6963 03030 9883 +112 +080 146054 054 045 002 00
003300 2507N 07328W 6965 03026 9873 +117 +074 146054 055 043 002 03
003330 2506N 07329W 6963 03025 9868 +119 +074 149054 055 043 002 00
003400 2504N 07330W 6958 03026 9859 +124 +072 149054 056 043 002 00
003430 2503N 07332W 6966 03013 9861 +118 +080 149051 053 042 003 00
003500 2502N 07333W 6953 03028 9851 +126 +071 146051 054 044 003 00
003530 2501N 07334W 6964 03013 9852 +124 +076 144048 048 046 002 00
003600 2500N 07335W 6964 03011 9843 +130 +072 142048 050 046 002 00
$$

[Sanibel]

San Salvador is in the south core. Winds are just N of W at 96mph. Gusts 115mph.



Joaquin is losing steam and getting out of town NNE.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[weathernerdguy]

isnt a lot of the greens in the microwave, dry air around the system?

[WeatherGuesser]

marked drop in the interest level on this board as this system is no longer is a U.S. threat. What a difference 36 hours makes.

I don't think that's why.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Wind profile of the first pass:



Obs where that was taken:



Location of high SFMR:

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030045
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 32 20151003
003630 2459N 07337W 6965 03006 9844 +125 +080 144053 056 050 002 00
003700 2457N 07338W 6948 03024 9832 +133 +074 140051 055 052 003 00
003730 2456N 07339W 6967 02998 9829 +132 +076 139053 054 055 002 00
003800 2455N 07341W 6956 03007 9817 +140 +071 140056 057 055 002 00
003830 2454N 07342W 6970 02981 9808 +140 +071 144057 059 057 003 00
003900 2453N 07343W 6951 02997 9798 +141 +082 149059 062 058 002 00
003930 2451N 07345W 6954 02985 9796 +133 +101 149063 063 055 003 00
004000 2450N 07346W 6957 02974 9787 +134 +096 148066 068 054 003 00
004030 2449N 07347W 6966 02955 9770 +140 +091 149069 071 055 003 00
004100 2448N 07348W 6955 02959 9763 +136 +107 151068 071 055 003 00
004130 2447N 07350W 6962 02945 9745 +145 +098 146065 070 057 003 00
004200 2446N 07351W 6974 02927 9720 +164 +083 143070 074 058 004 00
004230 2445N 07352W 6976 02911 9711 +159 +091 140067 074 058 003 00
004300 2443N 07353W 6948 02935 9686 +174 +082 137068 071 061 003 00
004330 2442N 07355W 6962 02903 9642 +208 +057 127067 071 067 003 03
004400 2441N 07356W 6979 02868 9623 +210 +071 119063 066 077 002 00
004430 2440N 07358W 6955 02877 9584 +233 +039 113068 076 086 001 00
004500 2438N 07359W 6944 02872 9566 +232 +054 111074 076 087 002 00
004530 2437N 07401W 6950 02846 9576 +191 +104 122081 084 085 003 00
004600 2435N 07402W 6978 02788 9522 +229 +074 117082 086 084 002 00
$$

Approaching the eye.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Edit: This was through HDOB 31.

[USTropics]

isnt a lot of the greens in the microwave, dry air around the system?

Not necessarily (they have no correlation). The color variants are measures of temperature in kelvin. Basically it's a measure of cloud top temperatures.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030055
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 33 20151003
004630 2434N 07404W 6932 02830 9496 +240 +057 111087 092 085 005 00
004700 2433N 07405W 6953 02787 9515 +194 +100 118085 089 085 005 00
004730 2431N 07407W 6988 02721 9488 +198 +110 118079 089 080 005 00
004800 2430N 07408W 6950 02743 9465 +195 +115 111062 072 064 005 00
004830 2428N 07410W 6968 02709 9463 +182 +122 114053 057 050 005 03
004900 2427N 07411W 6969 02688 9457 +170 +125 111048 051 041 003 00
004930 2426N 07413W 6961 02684 9434 +178 +116 101034 045 036 004 03
005000 2424N 07413W 6969 02661 9432 +166 +124 098016 023 021 001 00
005030 2422N 07413W 6957 02673 9437 +158 +126 084005 014 016 002 00
005100 2420N 07413W 6959 02676 9446 +154 +127 305007 010 022 003 00
005130 2418N 07413W 6966 02671 9456 +147 +143 284020 024 035 006 00
005200 2416N 07413W 6955 02688 9465 +144 //// 296024 027 035 006 05
005230 2415N 07414W 6957 02694 9470 +144 +142 306028 029 /// /// 03
005300 2416N 07416W 6962 02689 9470 +145 +142 304031 033 /// /// 03
005330 2417N 07416W 6959 02684 9464 +144 +135 299024 033 038 003 00
005400 2419N 07415W 6967 02665 9448 +150 +129 291010 020 037 003 00
005430 2420N 07414W 6954 02676 9433 +163 +123 133004 010 026 003 00
005500 2422N 07413W 6964 02667 9427 +173 +120 106019 023 020 001 00
005530 2424N 07413W 6957 02686 9439 +168 +130 097030 032 021 003 03
005600 2426N 07412W 6960 02686 9423 +193 +117 086037 040 /// /// 03
$$
;

Circling for the true center. 92 kt FL, 85 kt SFMR. Pressure 942mb?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030105
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 34 20151003
005630 2427N 07414W 6967 02694 9446 +182 +123 072042 042 /// /// 03
005700 2426N 07416W 6961 02695 9455 +166 +129 066040 042 /// /// 03
005730 2424N 07416W 6973 02670 9439 +173 +121 057032 039 028 003 03
005800 2422N 07416W 6953 02683 9425 +175 +119 045019 028 022 001 00
005830 2420N 07414W 6965 02660 9416 +180 +116 071004 013 019 001 00
005900 2419N 07413W 6967 02656 9421 +172 +122 211009 012 021 001 03
005930 2418N 07412W 6954 02677 9428 +166 +132 238012 013 /// /// 03
010000 2416N 07413W 6951 02682 9432 +167 +122 274026 032 039 002 00
010030 2414N 07414W 6969 02668 9444 +162 +123 280037 039 055 005 00
010100 2413N 07414W 6954 02696 9452 +162 +124 286045 049 062 005 00
010130 2411N 07414W 6955 02707 9482 +145 +135 291066 079 076 008 00
010200 2409N 07414W 6941 02748 9523 +136 +136 301091 097 086 011 00
010230 2407N 07414W 6971 02750 9595 +132 +132 295110 111 093 038 00
010300 2405N 07414W 6971 02789 9637 +128 +128 289117 119 100 051 00
010330 2403N 07414W 6955 02836 9682 +125 +125 283109 113 088 063 03
010400 2401N 07413W 6968 02848 9716 +120 +120 275111 113 069 055 03
010430 2359N 07413W 6952 02890 9748 +118 +118 272112 114 061 080 03
010500 2358N 07414W 6946 02904 9765 +107 //// 273109 111 035 076 01
010530 2358N 07415W 6964 02889 9771 +109 +109 274109 109 051 056 00
010600 2357N 07415W 6966 02893 9780 +104 +104 277106 109 056 044 00
$$
;

Lowest pressure 942mb. 119 kt FL (all SFMR rain contaminated). Notice the strongest winds entirely on the south side despite Joaquin moving north.

[CrazyC83]

Joaquin has an interesting structure now. Despite the fact it is moving north, the strongest winds are all on the south side. The winds on the south side are borderline Cat 3-4, while the RFQ has winds barely supporting Cat 2.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[drewschmaltz]

How long has San Salvador been experiencing hurricane force winds? Could this be some kind of record?

[EquusStorm]

Most anemic looking sub-945 storm I have seen in a while. I think its chances of peaking again below 935 are beginning to drop off.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Lowest pressure 942mb. 119 kt FL (all SFMR rain contaminated). Notice the strongest winds entirely on the south side despite Joaquin moving north.

With NNE movement based on recon, that is not too surprising.

I posted this before, but recently all SFMR wind values are now bias corrected in real time.

You can download an early version of the paper about it here that is
available free:
http://www.researchgate.net/publication ... cipitation

Or if you have access, here is the final version:
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10. ... 14-00028.1

All the SFMR processors have now been updated and the correction occurs in real time and exists in the HDOB messages that now go out. I don't know exactly when the change occurred. I heard about it from NOAA a few days ago.

[drewschmaltz]

I am an extreme n00b but this whole animation looks to me like it is in reverse.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/ft-animated.gif



Don't thinks usually, like, move E to W in this area?

[CrazyC83]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 030110
XXAA 53017 99243 70742 08044 99945 26618 31511 00/// ///// /////
92194 25617 30012 85940 23229 33009 70635 18256 21005 88999 77999
31313 09608 80058
61616 AF305 1211A JOAQUIN OB 12
62626 CENTER MBL WND 30511 AEV 07775 DLM WND 30504 944697 WL150 3
1012 085 REL 2432N07422W 005850 SPG 2432N07422W 010249 =
XXBB 53018 99243 70742 08044 00945 26618 11850 23229 22817 23046
33787 24258 44747 22859 55697 17856
21212 00945 31511 11915 30512 22883 30005 33850 33009 44697 21506
31313 09608 80058
61616 AF305 1211A JOAQUIN OB 12
62626 CENTER MBL WND 30511 AEV 07775 DLM WND 30504 944697 WL150 3
1012 085 REL 2432N07422W 005850 SPG 2432N07422W 010249 =
;

945/10 kt