ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[BobHarlem]

We used to joke around that Avilia would write an 11pm disco and Stewart would come in at 5am and just be like "Ok everything that guy said at 11pm is crap, here's whats going on"

Yeah Avila has gotten the reputation of being very conservative and reluctant to mention new developments until they were proven over time. The NHC in general is very careful about the forecasts, so its understandable. This may be happening again. But time will tell.

[psyclone]

With the track now over Cuba why haven't the TS warnings for the central Bahamas and the watches for the northwest Bahamas been dropped?

Lol good point, so South Florida not in the cone but islands further north and east are?

important to remember the cone is the track of the center so as a storm closes in more and more inclement weather will reside outside the cone. this is why warnings stretch well beyond the cone as a storm nears landfall. nonetheless your point about watches/warnings for the Bahamas being no longer necessary is valid.

[blp]

From Dr Masters.

A personal weather station in Barahona, Dominican Republic, has recorded 16.13" of rain between 1 pm and 10 pm, including 8.80" in one hour from 8 pm to 9 pm:

http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-stat ion/dashboard?ID=IBARAHON3

Rainfall at that level is going to cause extreme flooding, though it is possible the measurement was bad.

Dr. M.

[ozonepete]

The new NHC discussion didn't mention the microwave images. It might be just an illusion.

Very interesting to me that they didn't. I wonder why, but I will find out...

[ozonepete]

You can bet if that microwave imagery was legit organization the NHC would have mentioned it.

It is absolutely "legit." Microwave satellite images either come through correctly or are declared contaminated and not shown. So it has nothing to do with that. They saw the images and decided not to include them in the discussion. Unusual but not unheard of with them. Quite likely they needed more time to understand what those images are telling us.

[psyclone]

You can bet if that microwave imagery was legit organization the NHC would have mentioned it.

It is absolutely "legit." Microwave satellite images either come through correctly or are declared contaminated and not shown. So it has nothing to do with that. They saw the images and decided not to include them in the discussion. Unusual but not unheard of with them. Quite likely they needed more time to understand what those images are telling us.

yeah but what are they showing? something meaningful development-wise or something random that looks ominous? I don't know but if it were rapid development I can't imagine it wouldn't be discussed/at least mentioned.

[thundercam96]

my RA for my dorm at FIU just visited us and confirmed our hurricane evacuation plans (just in case)

I'm a freshman @ Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Daytona Beach, and they came by last night to do the same. I'm not sure what the threshold is for evacuating the school. Embry-Riddle is known for their flight program, and word is they are preparing to fly the fleet of aircraft to GA.

[psyclone]

my RA for my dorm at FIU just visited us and confirmed our hurricane evacuation plans (just in case)

I'm a freshman @ Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Daytona Beach, and they came by last night to do the same. I'm not sure what the threshold is for evacuating the school. Embry-Riddle is known for their flight program, and word is they are preparing to fly the fleet of aircraft to GA.

I would imagine that process was contemplated when Erika was forecast to ride up the east coast as a hurricane.

[Bocadude85]

Looking at IR I do not see how Erika doesn't move over eastern Cuba

[ozonepete]

You can bet if that microwave imagery was legit organization the NHC would have mentioned it.

It is absolutely "legit." Microwave satellite images either come through correctly or are declared contaminated and not shown. So it has nothing to do with that. They saw the images and decided not to include them in the discussion. Unusual but not unheard of with them. Quite likely they needed more time to understand what those images are telling us.

yeah but what are they showing? something meaningful development-wise or something random that looks ominous? I don't know but if it were rapid development I can't imagine it wouldn't be discussed/at least mentioned.

Definitely not random. And definitely not rapid intensification. You can have an eye start to develop at the md-levels in a weak TC and it could take days to become dominant all the way down to the surface and up to 300 mb. So it does not necessarily imply RI at all, ok? You've been around here long enough that I think that makes sense to you, right my friend? There is clearly a mid level circulation closing off an eye-like feature there, but the same way I and our other mets really can't explain this easily or quickly, I'm sure the NHC guys are not sure what to make of it either. I'll bet they are all still looking at it now and discussing what's going on. Analyzing microwave sat images is still a very new branch of hurricane analysis and forecasting. And I would want to see more mw sat images before making any conclusions.

[Hurricaneman]

Could be a temporary feature on the MW images

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[psyclone]

Could be a temporary feature on the MW images

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Do you know when we will get a new one?

[Hurricaneman]

Could be a temporary feature on the MW images

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Do you know when we will get a new one?

Sometime in the morning I think

[emeraldislenc]

It looks better now than in the past 24 hours!

[Bocadude85]

The MW +wind data indicated a 50+ TS.

What wind data are you referring to? I haven't seen any gusts higher then 40 mph reported in Hispaniola

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Radar, mostly for later, though appearing some now.

Guantanamo Bay Short Range:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_li ... R&loop=yes

Cuba, when working:
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... B1=RADARES
It was not working earlier.

[emeraldislenc]

I meant appearance

[rolltide]

Tomorrow should be interesting (I'm in central time so it's still friday) This has been a fun storm to track. It keeps throwing us curve balls that defies the models and the NHC. Best storm to track in years.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

Could be a temporary feature on the MW images

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Do you know when we will get a new one?

Sometime in the morning I think

Go to the NAVY site:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi


then click on Erika under Atlantic in the upper left.
then scroll down to the lower part of the panel and you will see the list of most recent microwave images taken (look at a screen copy below here) and on the right side when the next one will be taken.
you can see for Erika the TC_SSMIS 08/29 0017 image we were talking about has a next image to be taken at 1622 UTC which isn't until tomorrow 12:22 EDT.

NOTE: Forget the 0502. That was from 08/28 or last night. Nothing good for the time being. Rats.

[Ntxw]

With the animated loops, seems like she is putting out a gust front on the W/SW side. Almost like an MCS/Derecho over land as it bows out and weakens the convection behind it. You can see wind gusts in the range of 50-70mph+ range with those events near the gust fronts.