ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2015 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 9:27:14 N Lon : 143:46:36 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 948.1mb/119.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.5 6.5
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km
Center Temp : -11.2C Cloud Region Temp : -76.9C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 92km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 11.2 degrees
WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
Yellow Evan
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Yellow Evan
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- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
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TPPN10 PGTW 301816
A. TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK)
B. 30/1732Z
C. 9.38N
D. 143.74E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 10NM OW EYE SURROUNDED BY
WHITE YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR CMG ADJUSTMENT TO
YIELD A DT OF 6.5. MET AGREES. PT YIELDS A 6.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/1221Z 8.95N 144.82E GPMI
UEHARA
A. TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK)
B. 30/1732Z
C. 9.38N
D. 143.74E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 10NM OW EYE SURROUNDED BY
WHITE YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR CMG ADJUSTMENT TO
YIELD A DT OF 6.5. MET AGREES. PT YIELDS A 6.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/1221Z 8.95N 144.82E GPMI
UEHARA
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euro6208
Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon
cycloneye wrote:Up to 125kts.
04W MAYSAK 150330 1800 9.4N 143.7E WPAC 125 929
Morning Maysak!
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euro6208
Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 301852
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON MAYSAK (04W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
500 AM CHST TUE MAR 31 2015
...TYPHOON MAYSAK BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON AS IT APPROACHES FAIS
AND ULITHI...
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE HAVE LIKELY ENDED. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING.
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP
STATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
THIS AFTERNOON ON FAIS AND THIS EVENING ON ULITHI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
YAP ISLAND IN YAP STATE. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING AND TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.4N 143.7E
ABOUT 80 MILES NORTHWEST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 140 MILES NORTH OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 220 MILES EAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 280 MILES EAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 380 MILES EAST OF YAP
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON MAYSAK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 9.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.7 EAST...MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWEST COURSE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE EYE OF MAYSAK THROUGH
YAP STATE VERY CLOSE TO FAIS THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY CLOSE TO ULITHI
THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 145 MPH...MAKING MAYSAK A
CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES NORTH OF
THE CENTER AND 90 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM.
$$
KLEESCHULTE
WTPQ31 PGUM 301852
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON MAYSAK (04W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
500 AM CHST TUE MAR 31 2015
...TYPHOON MAYSAK BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON AS IT APPROACHES FAIS
AND ULITHI...
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE HAVE LIKELY ENDED. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING.
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP
STATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
THIS AFTERNOON ON FAIS AND THIS EVENING ON ULITHI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
YAP ISLAND IN YAP STATE. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING AND TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.4N 143.7E
ABOUT 80 MILES NORTHWEST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 140 MILES NORTH OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 220 MILES EAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 280 MILES EAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 380 MILES EAST OF YAP
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON MAYSAK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 9.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.7 EAST...MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWEST COURSE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE EYE OF MAYSAK THROUGH
YAP STATE VERY CLOSE TO FAIS THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY CLOSE TO ULITHI
THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 145 MPH...MAKING MAYSAK A
CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES NORTH OF
THE CENTER AND 90 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM.
$$
KLEESCHULTE
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euro6208
Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon
WDPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 331 NM EAST OF
YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND WRAPPED EVEN TIGHTER INTO A SHARPLY
OUTLINED 10-NM EYE, WHICH PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION. THE EYE FEATURE IS ALSO READILY APPARENT ON RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGES INCLUDING 301221Z GPM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF CLOSELY-SPACED DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TY MAYSAK IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REFLECTS RAPID INTENSFICATION OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS, OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 48. TY
04W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND WARM SST (29 CELSIUS) AND IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, TY 04W SHOULD TRACK
TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO THE NORTH. AS THE TYPHOON GAINS LATITUDE IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VWS (15-20 KNOT). DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS OF 190 NM
AT TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 04W WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD AND
WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN
STR AND ENCOUNTERS UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING VWS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 331 NM EAST OF
YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND WRAPPED EVEN TIGHTER INTO A SHARPLY
OUTLINED 10-NM EYE, WHICH PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION. THE EYE FEATURE IS ALSO READILY APPARENT ON RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGES INCLUDING 301221Z GPM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF CLOSELY-SPACED DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TY MAYSAK IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REFLECTS RAPID INTENSFICATION OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS, OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 48. TY
04W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND WARM SST (29 CELSIUS) AND IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, TY 04W SHOULD TRACK
TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO THE NORTH. AS THE TYPHOON GAINS LATITUDE IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VWS (15-20 KNOT). DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS OF 190 NM
AT TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 04W WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD AND
WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN
STR AND ENCOUNTERS UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING VWS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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euro6208
Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon
Before Yap home to about +11,300, Fais home to about 300 might get the eyewall of this soon category 5 monster!
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euro6208
Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2015 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 9:34:51 N Lon : 143:21:17 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 939.8mb/127.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.8 6.8
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km
Center Temp : +5.7C Cloud Region Temp : -77.4C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 110km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 11.4 degrees
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2015 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 9:34:51 N Lon : 143:21:17 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 939.8mb/127.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.8 6.8
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km
Center Temp : +5.7C Cloud Region Temp : -77.4C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 110km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 11.4 degrees
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16143
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16143
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
TXPQ26 KNES 301551
TCSWNP
A. 04W (MAYSAK)
B. 30/1432Z
C. 9.2N
D. 144.3E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SSMIS/GMI
H. REMARKS...MAYSAK CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND IS CONSOLIDATING. SYSTEM
NOW HAS WELL DEFINED EYE WITH SURROUNDING TEMPERATURES COOLING AND
FILLING IN. LG SURROUNDING TEMP GIVES 5.0. WMG EYE WITH W RING TEMP
ALLOWS FOR +1.0 ADJUSTMENT FOR DT=6.0...HOWEVER THIS IS HIGHER THAN ALL
OTHER IMAGERY OVER PAST 6 HOURS. MET=5.5 BASED ON 24 HOUR DEVELOPING
TREND. PT=5.5. FT IS BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
30/0947Z 8.9N 145.2E SSMIS
30/1221Z 9.0N 144.8E GMI
...RUMINSKI
Here I'd give it the benefit of the doubt and give it 6.0.
TCSWNP
A. 04W (MAYSAK)
B. 30/1432Z
C. 9.2N
D. 144.3E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SSMIS/GMI
H. REMARKS...MAYSAK CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND IS CONSOLIDATING. SYSTEM
NOW HAS WELL DEFINED EYE WITH SURROUNDING TEMPERATURES COOLING AND
FILLING IN. LG SURROUNDING TEMP GIVES 5.0. WMG EYE WITH W RING TEMP
ALLOWS FOR +1.0 ADJUSTMENT FOR DT=6.0...HOWEVER THIS IS HIGHER THAN ALL
OTHER IMAGERY OVER PAST 6 HOURS. MET=5.5 BASED ON 24 HOUR DEVELOPING
TREND. PT=5.5. FT IS BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
30/0947Z 8.9N 145.2E SSMIS
30/1221Z 9.0N 144.8E GMI
...RUMINSKI
Here I'd give it the benefit of the doubt and give it 6.0.
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1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6059
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- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Yeah, I'm pretty surprised to see JTWC jump on the T6.5 there. I feel 115 kt/T6.0 would have done the most justice at the time. Regardless though, Maysak seems to be really pulling together right now. At this point, I'm expecting the system to organize and strengthen enough to achieve a subjective T7.0 from someone. Feeling shades of Isa '97 with this one personally.
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16143
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- Contact:
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16143
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2015 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 9:34:12 N Lon : 142:56:04 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 934.9mb/132.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.7 6.7
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km
Center Temp : +9.6C Cloud Region Temp : -76.1C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 110km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 11.5 degrees
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2015 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 9:34:12 N Lon : 142:56:04 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 934.9mb/132.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.7 6.7
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km
Center Temp : +9.6C Cloud Region Temp : -76.1C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 110km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 11.5 degrees
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16143
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
TPPN10 PGTW 302116
A. TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK)
B. 30/2032Z
C. 9.49N
D. 143.11E
E. TWO/MTSAT
F. T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 11NM WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY
WHITE YIELDS A CF OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR CMG ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD
A DT OF 7.0. MET YIELDS A 6.5. PT YIELDS A 6.0. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/1622Z 9.25N 143.98E MMHS
30/1716Z 9.38N 143.77E SSMI
30/1859Z 9.45N 143.47E SSMS
UEHARA
A. TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK)
B. 30/2032Z
C. 9.49N
D. 143.11E
E. TWO/MTSAT
F. T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 11NM WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY
WHITE YIELDS A CF OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR CMG ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD
A DT OF 7.0. MET YIELDS A 6.5. PT YIELDS A 6.0. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/1622Z 9.25N 143.98E MMHS
30/1716Z 9.38N 143.77E SSMI
30/1859Z 9.45N 143.47E SSMS
UEHARA
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145276
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Even the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season didn't feature such intense storms right out of the gate. This could be a loooooooong year in the Pacific...
Yes,including the always not active CPAC.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Yellow Evan
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Even the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season didn't feature such intense storms right out of the gate. This could be a loooooooong year in the Pacific...
Yep. Expect most of the active to be cluttered from 110W-150E.
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Yellow Evan
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- Posts: 16143
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2015 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 9:38:19 N Lon : 142:33:34 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 934.8mb/132.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.4 6.4
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km
Center Temp : +14.5C Cloud Region Temp : -72.3C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 110km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 11.6 degrees
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2015 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 9:38:19 N Lon : 142:33:34 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 934.8mb/132.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.4 6.4
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km
Center Temp : +14.5C Cloud Region Temp : -72.3C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 110km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 11.6 degrees
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1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6059
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
There's those double-digit eye temps I like to see in intense storms. Convection warmed a little but a GPM pass less than an hour old shows the eyewall continuing to organize. I'd also guess that we'll see another convective burst in the NW quadrant of the storm begin in the next few frames. I was hesitant about 125 kt at 18Z, but I'm all for it now at 00Z.
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Opinions expressed are mine alone.
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Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
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